All Government Bonds articles – Page 4
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White papersOffice Space: The CRE Effects On Major U.S. Cities
Rising office vacancy rates, declining property valuations, and the respective impact on tax revenues and city budgets are a source of growing concern for municipal bond investors.
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White papersUS bonds: Thinking beyond rates
In an economic environment characterized by rising interest rates and slowing growth, our investment professionals see fixed income as a beacon of opportunity.
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White papersRecent economic data confirms our outlook
”With softer economic growth ahead and the Fed expected to cut rates in 2024, this supports our positive stance on developed and emerging market bonds.”
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White papersUp then (marginally) down again
Markets rose earlier in the week on hopes of an interest rate freeze from the world’s central banks; only to reverse course on the back of less dovish outlooks from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.
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White papersThe peak in rate hikes is an inflection point for bonds
You don’t have to be bearish on the economy to be optimistic on the bond market. Here’s why
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White papersCentral banks’ unwinding will put more public debt in market hands
The recent surge in global bond yields is partly ascribed to market worries about a greater supply of debt coming from governments. Some of this increase in yields should reverse when inflation nears central banks’ targets and monetary policy is less restrictive.
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White papersAsset Class Returns Forecasts - Q4 2023
Recent geopolitical events and macroeconomic progresses are rising uncertainty on the global outlook and led to some adjustments on the short-term trajectory within our simulation horizon.
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White papersGrabbing the Bull by the Tail: Assessing Tail Risks Amid Complexity
As a case study into our assessment of tail risks, we discuss how the market-implied probability distribution for a recession has evolved over the past year.
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White papersShorter versus longer-dated bonds: Is there a role for both in investor portfolios?
Money market and short-dated (one-to-five-year) bond yields are the highest they have been since the end of the 2008/2009 global financial crisis.
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White papersWill Markets Do the Fed’s Job of Tightening Financial Conditions?
In this monthly series, we take a quick, comprehensive look at current macroeconomic themes that matter to clients.
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White papersDon’t expect rates volatility to decline overnight
The volatility in interest rates has surged over the past two years as central banks have fought this long-lasting increase in inflation. In this weekly edition of Simply put, we explain how this risk evolution has significantly reshaped our asset allocation.
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White papersA view on Italy and its government debt
On 20 October, S&P Global Ratings announced that it was keeping its rating of Italian debt unchanged with a stable outlook. The rating agency’s decision kicks-off a wave of autumn credit assessments and will be followed by DBRS Morningstar on 27 October, Fitch Ratings on 10 November and finally Moody’s on 17 November
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White papersTreasury yields rise, anticipating a Fed pause
The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened as the U.S. Federal Reserve indicates a pause at the November meeting. The market has essentially priced out any chance of a November hike and is pricing in only a 20% likelihood of a December rate increase.
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White papersHow ESG monitoring can enhance sovereign bond investing
Fundamental research has always been at the heart of our investment approach, The Capital SystemTM. We believe that analysing material environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues can help us better understand long-term risks and opportunities.
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White papersCentral banks’ endgame: a new policy paradigm
”Investors will need to adjust to a paradigm shift away from the accommodative policy stance that has supported financial asset prices, to an environment that should make bonds more attractive while increasing the risk-adjusted required returns for other major asset classes.”
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White papersMacroeconomic and financial market forecasts - October 2023
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 9 October 2023
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White papersA bond market bruising: market snapshot
The yield on global government bonds reached multi-decade highs this week, as markets adjust to a sustained period of higher interest rates.
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White papersHigher for Longer, Longer the Stronger
We are leaning into quality as markets start to focus away from near-term tailwinds and onto medium-term headwinds.
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White papersMarkets hit by ‘higher for longer’ rate expectations
After a volatile September, the S&P 500 Index is heading towards its first quarterly loss in 12 months.
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White papersThe BoE’s “Table Mountain” Approach Sees Rates Highest for Longest
The Bank of England kept its Bank Rate on hold at 5.25% on September 21, 2023. The UK’s economic backdrop is weak, so we believe that the BoE will keep interest rates at this level for the near future.
