All Government Bonds articles
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White papersMarkets weigh rising yields and AI exuberance
Market volatility has increased in recent weeks, particularly in bond markets. The MOVE index, a measure of expected volatility in US Treasuries, has been rising significantly, decoupling from the VIX equity volatility indicator in an unusual move. This is significantly different from the March volatility spike that affected both markets at the start of the Iran war.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - October 2026
In September, global bond markets came under pressure amid inflation concerns and hawkish shifts by central banks, while equity markets remained relatively calm, supported by strong economic data and earnings, alongside renewed optimism around AI.
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White papersFixed-Income Outlook: Four Ways to Capitalize on Dispersion
Fixed-income investors are being paid more to take risk than they have been in years, but not all opportunities are created equal. Higher yield levels, heightened volatility and growing differences across countries, sectors, industries and issuers are expanding the opportunity set. Dispersion is the raw material from which active returns are generated. Below are four ways investors can capitalize on it.
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White papersInvestment View for Q4: Liquidity is confidence
‘Investment View’ provides our quarterly macro & market outlook and investment recommendations
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PodcastEurope’s path to strategic autonomy opens new opportunities for bond investors
Europe is entering a pivotal era of strategic autonomy, seeking to build resilience across critical sectors such as defence, energy, communications, and technology in response to a more fragmented geopolitical landscape.
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White papersThe road ahead for central banks
In a low-trust world that is becoming increasingly predatory, investors should expect supply shocks to become a new norm and the distribution of economic gains to stay uneven. Another result of the global order fragmenting is the rise of fiercer competition between countries. However, this competition is no longer limited to trade, tech, industrial leadership or energy security; it is instead being shaped by a relentless search for capital at the public and private level.
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White papersGlobal yields surge
“We are in a regime of higher yields for longer across the globe. Bond volatility is likely to stay higher than in the past decade, but yields are becoming increasingly attractive.”
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White papersRedrawing the map of sovereign investing
For much of the past two decades, the case for developed market government bonds at the centre of fixed income portfolios rested on three assumptions: inflation would remain contained, central banks would provide a dependable source of demand, and rising sovereign debt would be readily absorbed. Each now looks less secure.
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White papersThe Fed raises policy rates
“The Fed’s September hike was primarily an insurance and credibility measure. Significant geopolitical uncertainty and scrutiny from bond markets could influence its actions going forward.”
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White papersFed rate hike: Three views on what’s next
The US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point this month marks a significant shift in monetary policy as the central bank seeks to dampen war-induced inflationary pressures. Although it is the first time the Fed has hiked rates since July 2023, in some respects it represents a return to normal after many years of artificially low borrowing costs.
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PodcastGoing the distance - Market perspectives into autumn - Investment views by Outerblue Convictions
After an eventful summer for the markets and policymakers, particularly in the bond markets, our podcast series regulars reunite to recap the major movements in the markets over the past few weeks. Listen further to discover what these market events mean for investors and our own investment views.
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White papersThe ECB raises policy rates
“The ECB opens a period of central bank meetings. The balance is shifting further towards the risk that inflation proves more persistent than expected, given the recent rise in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions.”
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White papersBond yields on the rise again
“Bond markets are under pressure now, but as yields rise, opportunities for investors to benefit from higher income are opening.”
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White papersWhat higher interest rates could mean for stocks and bonds
Bonds have been anything but boring this summer. With US Treasury yields climbing amid rising national debt, elevated inflation and massive AI-related investments, some investors are asking whether recent volatility signals a looming crisis or a broader shift to a world of higher interest rates.
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White papersFrance’s fiscal policy in focus
We expect France’s GDP to grow by 0.6% in 2026 and around 1.0% in 2027, in line with Eurozone growth. While higher inflation and elevated policy uncertainty, both domestic and external, are likely to weigh on demand in 2026, the economy should retain some underlying resilience, helped by a gradual recovery in private domestic demand, particularly household consumption and business investment moving into 2027.
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White papersSmaller Fed, Bigger Questions
While markets remain focused on interest rates, the Federal Reserve is taking a closer look at its balance sheet strategy. A newly established task force is evaluating whether changes to reserve management, portfolio composition, and Treasury-Fed coordination could help reshape the Fed’s role in financial markets and influence monetary policy implementation in the years ahead.
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White papersStrong US earnings growth continues
“The ongoing US earnings season confirms a broadening of earnings growth across sectors, although scrutiny remains on data and quality of guidance beneath the headline numbers. Overall, this reinforces the importance of diversification and selectivity”
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White papersWhat a 5% 10-year Treasury means for commercial real estate
As the 10-year Treasury pushes toward 4.75% for the first time since January 2025, investors are asking what it means for U.S. commercial real estate (CRE). Importantly, the reason rates are rising matters as much as the level. What began as an orderly move in real rates and term premium is now giving way to something less benign - rising inflation expectations and a bond market that’s testing the Fed’s resolve. A 10-year yield near 5% raises the bar for CRE, but it sharpens our thesis rather than breaks it: net operating income (NOI) growth and selectivity are what will likely separate winners from the rest.
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White papersFed on hold, markets in action
“As the Fed moves to reduce policy guidance, uncertainty over the short-rate path is likely to rise, creating additional volatility along the yield curve”
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White papersThe New Role of Geopolitical Risk in Bond Investing
Interest rate volatility is reshaping bond markets. We examine why geopolitical risks have become increasingly linked to bond market volatility since 2025, and discuss the implications for the term premium, fixed income positioning and investment opportunities.
