All Emerging Market Debt articles – Page 14
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White papers
EMD: Light at the End of the Tunnel
The rollout of the COVID vaccine may be slower across emerging markets, meaning restrictions will likely remain in place for the foreseeable future. But there are bright spots—including in local currencies and companies that have adapted to this ‘new normal’.
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ECB QE Monitor - January 2021
In December, the ECB bought €57.2bn under the PEPP and €21.1bn under the APP.
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10 predictions for 2021: The world improves, but do markets already know?
At the start of the year, we expected economic growth to pick up modestly and were encouraged by seemingly diminishing macro risks, such as trade policy. Conversely, we were concerned by relatively full stock valuations and thought that market gains could be limited following a strong 2019.
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CIO EMEA Outlook 2021: Knowns And Unknowns After A Tumultuous Year
At the beginning of the year we were threatened with excitement, be that trade wars or ongoing political upheaval in the Europe and the US. None of us were prepared for a global pandemic.
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China Credits: Default Outlook From an Onshore Perspective
Changing government policy could impact default levels in 2021.
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Multi-sector fixed income – The outlook for US and eurozone debt in 2021
Yields of sovereign developed market debt have fallen to record lows in 2020. Daniel Morris, chief market strategist, and Olivier De Larouzière (OL), head of multi-strategy fixed income, discuss the outlook for bonds in 2021.
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COVID, climate and Black Lives Matter: The stories that defined 2020
We select some of our key pieces of content in a year of unending drama.
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Will Washington Deliver a Holiday Miracle?
U.S. initial claims increased amid rising COVID cases, adding more fuel to the stimulus negotiations fire growing in Congress. China activity data for November should improve, and the Bank of England is expected to remain dovish given the pandemic and Brexit.
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Global IG: Don’t Underestimate Changed Behaviours
We came into 2020 on the back of one of the longest expansion phases ever, with increasingly loose monetary policy extending the growth cycle. Because of that growth and low interest rates, companies had been gearing up and corporate leverage was actually relatively high going into the pandemic.
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Seeking income – the case for investing in private corporate debt
Pension funds with current cashflow requirements depend on a steady stream of payouts, but face a number of unique challenges in their search for income against a backdrop of lower-for-longer yields and volatile investment conditions brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Why it’s so Hard to go Bankrupt… And Why That Will Change
Massive policy response has firms awash in liquidity, but 2021 will bring solvency challenges that investors need to watch closely.
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Heading into 2021, what do we think about credit markets?
We think that a combination of improving fundamentals and ongoing monetary stimulus will push spreads towards new record tight levels. We see also room for spread compression in high yield. Sustainably low financing costs make high debt levels much more manageable. Consequently, investors should now focus more on the ability of companies to generate profits rather than their level of debt.
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White papers
2021 Outlook: The Uneven Recovery
The recovery in many ways looks real and durable—but it also looks uneven and, in some cases, quite unpredictable. In this discussion, investment professionals from the public and private markets discuss where they expect to see risks and opportunities in the year ahead.
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White papers
Europe, US and China tomorrow: Will it be possible to avoid geopolitical and economic traps?
There are many pitfalls looming. Some concern China, the United States and Europe, while others are more targeted, notably on China or on the relationship between China and the United States. Some traps concern geopolitics (the Thucydides trap, the Kindleberger trap, the Herodotus trap, the Tacitus trap, the Chamberlain - Daladier trap and the cold war trap), while others deal with purely economic issues (the middle-income trap, the inflation trap, the stagflation trap and the debt trap).
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Markets Unscripted: 2020 U.S. Election Series
Ashok Bhatia, Neuberger Berman Deputy CIO – Fixed Income, shares his perspective on investment implications as a result of the U.S. election and recent COVID-19 vaccine news.
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Market Perspectives A (temporary) Covid ‘leg down’
The rise in new Covid-19 cases and renewed lockdowns across Europe are casting long shadows over the economic recovery and markets.
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EMD: A Strong Tailwind, But Risks on the Horizon
Segments of the EM debt market have been bright spots in fixed income this year. Will EMs outperform DMs in the months ahead—or are the risks too great? It may come down to country and credit selection.
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White papers
Uncorrelated Through COVID
The rollercoaster ride of the COVID-19 market crisis presented the toughest challenge imaginable to the concept of “uncorrelated strategies”—did they live up to it?
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China Property: Recovery From the COVID-19 Lockdown
After initial shocks, China’s property markets have regained strength. Strong home price growth and overheated land prices could attract policy intervention as regulators seek to instill a stable housing market, economy and financial system.
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White papers
How might monetary policy evolve in a post-pandemic world?
Are central banks running out of ammunition to combat the next recession? In a word: no. In two words: no, but…