All Emerging Market Debt articles – Page 12
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White papersHow Much Further Will US Rates Rise?
US Treasury yields have surged recently, buoyed by rising optimism about economic growth and rising inflation expectations. Based on our growth forecast, longer-term rates will likely rise for the next few quarters—but more slowly. And we think the Fed is prepared to push in the other direction if rates rise too far, too fast.
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White papersGreen Light to Fiscal Expansion
EU fiscal rules shouldn’t restrain governments from spending what is necessary before economies recover. In the U.S., fiscal stimulus is boosting spending, particularly among lower-income consumers. Lastly, China PMIs showed temporary weakness.
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White papersHow Deep Are The Scars?
What helps reconcile market euphoria with the very mixed global data is that central bankers remain concerned about the pandemic scars and have reiterated their accommodative stance.
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White papersWhen Will the Jobs Come Back?
With the U.S. economy still down nearly 10 million jobs from its pre-pandemic level and history showing that the labor force participation rate could continue to decline at the end of a recession, PGIM Fixed Income seeks to answer the question “When Will the Jobs Come Back?
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White papersTracking ECB’s Communication: Perspectives And Implications For Financial Markets
This article assesses the communication of the European Central Bank (ECB) using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. We show the evolution of discourse over time and capture the main themes of interest for the central bank that go beyond its traditional mandate of maintaining price stability, enlightening main concerns and themes of discussion among board members.
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White papersMario Draghi: Deus Ex Machina or Knight of the Apocalypse?
The Future of Italy and Implications for Europe.
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White papersDistressed Debt: The Opportunities Surfacing in COVID’s Wake
Barings’ Stuart Mathieson and Bryan High provide insight into today’s distressed debt market, including their expectations for defaults, an overview of the competitive landscape, and where the next opportunities may emerge across the U.S. and Europe.
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White papersWhy we think it’s too early to be cautious on equities
Value stocks outperformed momentum by almost 30% in November, but then gave back a third of this by the beginning of 2021
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White papersWhat will be the key factors driving EM debt markets in 2021?
In spite of the 2020 rally, there are still attractive opportunities across different parts of the investment universe
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White papersLots of Stimulus, Not Much Inflation
Weak U.S. jobs data fuels debate for further fiscal stimulus but some worry inflation may overshoot the Fed’s target this year. In China, the PBOC is tapering monetary stimulus. In Europe, the Q4 contraction was less severe than initially thought, but the recovery looks delayed.
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White papers*Fixed income outlook – From despair to hope*
In the US, reflation on the back of fiscal stimulus and the exit from lockdowns should lead to modestly higher inflation expectations and nominal bond yields.
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White papersSupply vs demand of EMU EGB in 2021
Euro area sovereign debt issuance vs. ECB purchase dynamics look favourable in 2021. On the supply side, net issuance should decrease vs 2020, thanks to lower aggregated numbers of budget deficits, incoming support from EU funds, and for some countries, the use of increased cash accounts and higher bond redemptions.
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White papersWhy we don’t expect the Fed to taper its bond buying programme this year
In a world where sovereign bond yields are in the hand of central banks, the recent upward revisions of growth expectations for the US economy raised questions about the outlook for the Fed’s monetary policy. Growth is expected to rebound in H2 and very accommodative monetary policy is not a free lunch. The difficulty for the Fed is estimating how sustainable this expected improvement in growth and inflation will be in H2 2021.
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White papersTaper or not taper: a key issue for markets
The Fed is committed to maintaining very accommodative monetary conditions and unchanged interest rates until the economy has returned to full employment and inflation has stabilised above its 2.0% target. But the Fed has so far been vague on what determines the pace of its asset purchases. It is clear that these will have to decline long before it raises its key rates. But when and on what basis?
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White papersThe greenness of the EU budget: implications for fixed income and industry
The EU’s significant budget allocations to address the climate crisis supports the decarbonisation of the economy whilst also securing the permanence of sustainable fixed income.
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White papers2021 EMD outlook: In the wake of the storm
The COVID-19 market crisis was a cognitive shock, similar in magnitude to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Global investors found themselves surprised and wrong-footed in terms of risk positioning. After all, a pandemic isn’t usually part of the risk management textbook.
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White papersDon’t Mistake Growth for Quality
As investors adjust for a potential style rotation, we urge them not to abandon their portfolios’ “quality compounders” and “transition winners.”
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - February 2021
Markets closed 2020 on strong footing and the recent Democratic sweep in the US makes a greater fiscal push more likely, leading us to lift our 2021 GDP growth forecast for the US to 5.2-5.7%, 1% above previous estimates. This marks a great divergence between the US and the rest of DM, where we have been lowering our forecasts.
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White papersUnited Europe: From discord to harmony?
Global politics are in flux as policymakers scramble to manage the pandemic and revive economies. Can Europe come together and carve a place for itself on the international stage, or will it end up a passive player buffeted by greater forces?
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White papersThe Best Way to Get a Car Out of a Ditch
And how investors should judge the next round of government spending.
