All Emerging Market Debt articles – Page 8
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White papers
Fixed income outlook: Is the market overly hawkish?
After the bond bear market of 2021, valuations look more attractive in an environment where interest rate rises may already be priced in.
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White papers
Inflation Hits a Fork in the Road
A great divergence is coming into view on inflation, with the U.S. set to stand apart.
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White papers
Fed officials’ discomfort is growing with the inflation overshoot: why it will remain cautious
US consumer prices jumped by 6.2% in October, their highest level in 30 years! Deteriorating inflation data have pushed markets towards forecasting a faster pace of tapering and a more rapid removal of accommodation in 2022. We expect the Fed to act gradually as Covid remains a major risk and as the Fed would like to see a higher participation rate.
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White papers
What Rhymes With “Transitory”?
The search continues for a word that describes inflation that will not derail the recovery.
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White papers
Macroeconomic Outlook 2022: Compression, decompression, absorption
2020 was a year of massive compression of economic activity. 2021 was a year of fast decompression, with demand catching up quickly as we were reopening, exerting significant pressure on supply, triggering a rise in consumer prices unseen in decades.
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Podcast
It’s Quitting Time: Exploring Labor Market Dynamics
After a record-breaking 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in August, many have had their eyes on the labor market at large. Known as “The Great Resignation” or “The Big Quit”, this phenomenon has turned the heads of employers and employees alike. But how long might this trend last? What has kept people out of the workforce? And what sectors might be able to meet the demand of rising wages?
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White papers
The role bonds play in a portfolio
Building a resilient and balanced portfolio should be a priority for many investors in today’s environment of heightened financial market uncertainty and volatility across a range of asset classes, including equities.
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White papers
Is the U.K. the Newest Leading Indicator?
An upside surprise in U.K. inflation and improving employment trends reinforced markets pricing a 10–15 bps rate hike by the BoE in December, while energy prices eased following the announcements from China, which could provide downside pressure to market inflation expectations.
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White papers
Emerging market debt outlook for 2022
Inflation remains elevated in emerging markets (EM) with ongoing but manageable risks. A significant proportion of the shock to EM inflation can be attributed to volatile food and energy prices. Normalisation of supply chains and base effects should help.
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White papers
Fed tapering begins: mission accomplished
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to have struck a neutral balance in its November 3 meeting statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. The Fed was careful to differentiate the formal start to monthly tapering of the asset purchase programme with future adjustments to the Federal Funds Rate. The Fed maintained the transitory inflation language, but specifically pointed to inflation “factors that are expected to be transitory” rather than inflation as a whole.
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White papers
EM Debt: Why Passive Strategies Often Miss the Mark
When it comes to emerging markets, index tracking can result in both increased risks and missed opportunities.
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White papers
Monetary Seesaw – The Treasury and Fed at Opposite Ends
Over the coming months the Federal Reserve Bank will increase the supply of coupons in the market as it tapers its purchases of treasury and mortgage-backed security (MBS) assets. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury will decrease the amount of coupon issuance. These seesaw dynamics could make interest rate markets move in unique ways.
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White papers
Shoppers Jump-Start an Early Q4 Pickup
Stickier price pressures continue to stoke fears of U.S. inflation. Markets are currently pricing in rate hikes, which has led to increases in the short-end of the U.S. Treasury curve. The downward movement in the long-end suggests markets may be worried about a policy mistake.
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White papers
Evergrande and its spill-over effects: ongoing adjustments, but inflection point may be close
Despite Evergrande paid the coupon due on September 23, just one day before the 30-day grace period deadline, the company’s crisis is still unresolved. But it appears to be idiosyncratic and not systemic, as the market impact has been primarily on China’s HY bond index with limited spill-over into the broad EM HY space.
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White papers
Sustainability in Emerging Markets Debt
Ignoring sustainability in emerging markets debt is, for want of a better term, no longer sustainable.
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White papers
Public/Private Investing: Fixed Income at a Crossroads
As the line between public and private debt markets appears to blur, the ability to draw on the full suite of fixed income asset classes can help investors navigate a wide range of market environments—through complementary sources of risk and return prospects, enhanced diversification and improved return potential.
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White papers
The Brave New World
Supply chain disruptions persist, making the global reopening much less smooth. Contagious variants still weigh on activity, and vaccination levels in major emerging markets have progressed marginally. An energy price shock has added to the unpleasant mix.
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White papers
Credit events in China (I) – The macroeconomic impact
In this first of a two-part report, Chi Lo, Senior Market Strategist APAC, examines the macroeconomic impact of China’s latest credit events. In part II, he assesses whether these same events could trigger a property market crash.
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White papers
Normalizing policy and market risks
The United States Federal Reserve (Fed) is faced with continued challenges as it seeks to manage both the cyclical and structural economic fallout from the pandemic and move beyond its ultra-accommodative policies.
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Video
US Economic Outlook: Inflation, Growth and the Fed
Most measures of inflation are at multiyear highs. Headline inflation has gone up 5.4% over the last 12 months, and that’s a rate of increase that we haven’t seen in more than a decade.