All Emerging Market Debt articles – Page 7
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White papersKazakhstan: low impact for asset prices, but a wakeup call for geopolitical risk
On 2 January, protests began in western Kazakhstan triggered by a sharp rise in fuel costs, but reflecting broader political discontent. The almost immediate response from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO, a Russian version of NATO) shows the close relationship between the Russian and Kazakhstan governments.
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White papersEMD in 2022: New catalysts offset gloom and doom
The global outlook remains mired with worries about inflationary pressures, central bank rate hikes, and liquidity withdrawals.
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White papersCentral banks: a successful hawkish turn
The three major central banks issued restrictive signals last week. The banks have succeeded in changing the course of their monetary policies without harming the markets.
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White papersThe Most Important Rate in the Whole Wide World
Markets may be missing the importance of record-low real rates, and the potential impact if they start to rise.
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White papersTapping into China’s accelerating investment management expertise
Contrary to what some people might think, there is continued appetite among many global asset owners for Chinese securities – despite market noise and dynamic policymaking over recent months.
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White papersCentral Bank Palooza
The FOMC showed a hawkish shift but Fed Chair Jerome Powell successfully unwound some to suggest policy normalization won’t derail the recovery.
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White papersRe-entanglement: why debt and reality must reconnect
The long-term relationship between credit quality and the global unemployment rate appears to have broken down of late. But why? Fiorino once again probes the debt universe in search of deeper meaning…
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White papersFixed income outlook: Is the market overly hawkish?
After the bond bear market of 2021, valuations look more attractive in an environment where interest rate rises may already be priced in.
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White papersInflation Hits a Fork in the Road
A great divergence is coming into view on inflation, with the U.S. set to stand apart.
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White papersFed officials’ discomfort is growing with the inflation overshoot: why it will remain cautious
US consumer prices jumped by 6.2% in October, their highest level in 30 years! Deteriorating inflation data have pushed markets towards forecasting a faster pace of tapering and a more rapid removal of accommodation in 2022. We expect the Fed to act gradually as Covid remains a major risk and as the Fed would like to see a higher participation rate.
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White papersWhat Rhymes With “Transitory”?
The search continues for a word that describes inflation that will not derail the recovery.
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White papersMacroeconomic Outlook 2022: Compression, decompression, absorption
2020 was a year of massive compression of economic activity. 2021 was a year of fast decompression, with demand catching up quickly as we were reopening, exerting significant pressure on supply, triggering a rise in consumer prices unseen in decades.
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PodcastIt’s Quitting Time: Exploring Labor Market Dynamics
After a record-breaking 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in August, many have had their eyes on the labor market at large. Known as “The Great Resignation” or “The Big Quit”, this phenomenon has turned the heads of employers and employees alike. But how long might this trend last? What has kept people out of the workforce? And what sectors might be able to meet the demand of rising wages?
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White papersThe role bonds play in a portfolio
Building a resilient and balanced portfolio should be a priority for many investors in today’s environment of heightened financial market uncertainty and volatility across a range of asset classes, including equities.
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White papersIs the U.K. the Newest Leading Indicator?
An upside surprise in U.K. inflation and improving employment trends reinforced markets pricing a 10–15 bps rate hike by the BoE in December, while energy prices eased following the announcements from China, which could provide downside pressure to market inflation expectations.
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White papersEmerging market debt outlook for 2022
Inflation remains elevated in emerging markets (EM) with ongoing but manageable risks. A significant proportion of the shock to EM inflation can be attributed to volatile food and energy prices. Normalisation of supply chains and base effects should help.
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White papersFed tapering begins: mission accomplished
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to have struck a neutral balance in its November 3 meeting statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. The Fed was careful to differentiate the formal start to monthly tapering of the asset purchase programme with future adjustments to the Federal Funds Rate. The Fed maintained the transitory inflation language, but specifically pointed to inflation “factors that are expected to be transitory” rather than inflation as a whole.
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White papersEM Debt: Why Passive Strategies Often Miss the Mark
When it comes to emerging markets, index tracking can result in both increased risks and missed opportunities.
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White papersMonetary Seesaw – The Treasury and Fed at Opposite Ends
Over the coming months the Federal Reserve Bank will increase the supply of coupons in the market as it tapers its purchases of treasury and mortgage-backed security (MBS) assets. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury will decrease the amount of coupon issuance. These seesaw dynamics could make interest rate markets move in unique ways.
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White papersShoppers Jump-Start an Early Q4 Pickup
Stickier price pressures continue to stoke fears of U.S. inflation. Markets are currently pricing in rate hikes, which has led to increases in the short-end of the U.S. Treasury curve. The downward movement in the long-end suggests markets may be worried about a policy mistake.
