All Emerging Market Debt articles – Page 13
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Why we think it’s too early to be cautious on equities
Value stocks outperformed momentum by almost 30% in November, but then gave back a third of this by the beginning of 2021
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What will be the key factors driving EM debt markets in 2021?
In spite of the 2020 rally, there are still attractive opportunities across different parts of the investment universe
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Lots of Stimulus, Not Much Inflation
Weak U.S. jobs data fuels debate for further fiscal stimulus but some worry inflation may overshoot the Fed’s target this year. In China, the PBOC is tapering monetary stimulus. In Europe, the Q4 contraction was less severe than initially thought, but the recovery looks delayed.
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*Fixed income outlook – From despair to hope*
In the US, reflation on the back of fiscal stimulus and the exit from lockdowns should lead to modestly higher inflation expectations and nominal bond yields.
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Supply vs demand of EMU EGB in 2021
Euro area sovereign debt issuance vs. ECB purchase dynamics look favourable in 2021. On the supply side, net issuance should decrease vs 2020, thanks to lower aggregated numbers of budget deficits, incoming support from EU funds, and for some countries, the use of increased cash accounts and higher bond redemptions.
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Why we don’t expect the Fed to taper its bond buying programme this year
In a world where sovereign bond yields are in the hand of central banks, the recent upward revisions of growth expectations for the US economy raised questions about the outlook for the Fed’s monetary policy. Growth is expected to rebound in H2 and very accommodative monetary policy is not a free lunch. The difficulty for the Fed is estimating how sustainable this expected improvement in growth and inflation will be in H2 2021.
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Taper or not taper: a key issue for markets
The Fed is committed to maintaining very accommodative monetary conditions and unchanged interest rates until the economy has returned to full employment and inflation has stabilised above its 2.0% target. But the Fed has so far been vague on what determines the pace of its asset purchases. It is clear that these will have to decline long before it raises its key rates. But when and on what basis?
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The greenness of the EU budget: implications for fixed income and industry
The EU’s significant budget allocations to address the climate crisis supports the decarbonisation of the economy whilst also securing the permanence of sustainable fixed income.
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2021 EMD outlook: In the wake of the storm
The COVID-19 market crisis was a cognitive shock, similar in magnitude to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Global investors found themselves surprised and wrong-footed in terms of risk positioning. After all, a pandemic isn’t usually part of the risk management textbook.
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Don’t Mistake Growth for Quality
As investors adjust for a potential style rotation, we urge them not to abandon their portfolios’ “quality compounders” and “transition winners.”
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Global Investment Views - February 2021
Markets closed 2020 on strong footing and the recent Democratic sweep in the US makes a greater fiscal push more likely, leading us to lift our 2021 GDP growth forecast for the US to 5.2-5.7%, 1% above previous estimates. This marks a great divergence between the US and the rest of DM, where we have been lowering our forecasts.
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The Best Way to Get a Car Out of a Ditch
And how investors should judge the next round of government spending.
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Finding the Right Sovereign ESG Indicators: A Greek Tragedy?
On our mini odyssey through the vast seas of sovereign ESG indicators, we sought to identify data and scores from reliable third parties—which would not only provide benchmarking criteria between countries, but also serve as an effective screening tool to identify outliers.
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Rates Markets Are Normalizing
It is far too early for taper talk, in our view, but the bias of risk is still toward higher rates to come.
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EM Debt: Where is the Value Today?
Barings’ Cem Karacadag discusses the outlook for emerging markets debt, including the uneven impact of the pandemic, how rising interest rates and fluctuating currencies may influence the picture, and the increasing role that ESG is playing in identifying winners and losers.
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Italy: ECB’s Umbrella To Protect Bond Market, Despite Uncertain Political Situation
On 13 January, Italia Viva – a minor coalition partner led by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi – pulled out of the ruling coalition, leaving the government short of a majority in the Senate. However, we believe that snap elections are unlikely for now.
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Found in space: how markets could make contact with reality in 2021
This month, Fiorino looks to the stars for an alien-eye view of Earthly financial conditions…
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IG Credit: Can the Strong Performance Continue?
After a rollercoaster year, IG corporate credit ended on a high note. But all eyes are on the months ahead, and whether we could see a reversal of some of the trends that buoyed the asset class in 2020.
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CLOs: Cautious Optimism
Coming off a tumultuous year, CLOs look well-positioned going forward—particularly if the economy continues to heal and rates move higher.
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United States: the power of Executive Orders
Following the elections in Georgia, the Democrats have a very small majority in Congress. To facilitate governance, the new administration is likely to continue to govern using Executive Orders (EOs). Their use has grown over time, and they have become a full-fledged instrument of governance.