All Emerging Market Debt articles – Page 18
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A look at why insurance-linked securities are largely immune to the Covid-19 volatility
Insurance-linked securities have been almost unaffected by the market turmoil linked to coronavirus. We look into the mechanisms that make them more resilient.
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Assessing the Known Unknowns
While the list of worries is long, we will focus on three key uncertainties that, if known, should give us more clarity about the direction of markets. As some of these unknowns are coming into view, each of them creates unknowns of their own.
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Focus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario
If we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a return to pre-crisis levels. In Italy, the government is estimating an 8% GDP contraction this year, followed by a 4.7% YoY rebound in 2021. In our analysis, we consider two possible reference scenarios for 2020 growth: -8.0% YoY (as per the government scenario) and -12.0% YoY.
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Franklin Emerging Market Debt Opportunities Team: Market Update – Emerging From the Crisis
Perspective from Franklin Emerging Market Debt Opportunities team.
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Sweden’s Experiment with Negative Rates
At the end of 2019, Sweden’s Riksbank initiated a policy change at a time when the much larger European Central Bank (ECB) announced its determination to persist with its negative interest rate policy.
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Risk (Modelling in Global Aggregate Portfolios) in a Time of COVID
John Beck, Director of Fixed Income contemplates how risk is measured in our portfolios.
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The 20-Year Bond in a Brave New World
The US Government has responded to COVID-19 in unprecedented ways to produce a huge and rapid fiscal policy response. To fund this policy, the Treasury announced that it will issue over $800 billion in Treasury securities over the next three months. Including issuance completed in April, the issuance number rises to over $1 trillion. That is a massive issuance schedule. Here is what is upcoming.
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What We Already Know About The Recovery
And why bonds and stocks may not be pricing in such different outcomes.
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Fixed Income: Health Uncertainty vs. Economic Uncertainty. The Need To Safely Restart Growth
Policymakers face difficult tradeoffs. Fixed Income Views explores macro and sector outlooks.
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PE Investing at Market Inflections
Faced with the uncertainties of the COVID-19 crisis and demands for portfolio rebalancing, investors may be tempted to cut their private equity programs or re-think plans to expand them. In this short video interview, John Buser, Executive Vice Chairman—NB Alternatives, looks back to the dotcom era and the Great Financial Crisis to explain why he thinks they should stay the course.
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To Trade or Not to Trade? That is the Question…
Despite rising tensions between the U.S. and China, the U.S. has signaled they won’t tear up the trade deal, yet. Inflation may be impacted by weaker demand and lower oil prices. The ECB weighs what to do next after Germany ruled its QE program violated its constitution.
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Not created equal: Surveying investments in non-investment grade U.S. corporate
Institutional investors searching for yield and current income opportunities have increased their allocations to non-investment grade corporate bonds and loans. The case for investing in these assets is clear with the 10-year Treasury under 3% and historically low rates across the yield curve. Non-investment grade U.S. corporate debt has historically produced yields in the 6-10% range or greater.
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Emergency Fiscal Programs: No Choice But To Increase The (Monetized) Deficits
The large fiscal packages announced by governments to counter the virus crisis aim, so far, at stabilization more than stimulus.
In addition to funding the emergency response to the virus situation itself, these packages intend to prevent a worsening of the crisis through the financial and household income channels. -
White papers
Investing today for a better tomorrow
Bonds to help build solar energy farms or finance water reclamation projects… In today’s world, green business is good business. Why not invest where your money can make a positive impact on society and the environment?
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Recalibrating the rulebook: 360°, Q2 2020
What is our current view of fixed-income markets? And where do we see the best relative value? In our latest edition of 360°, Andrew ‘Jacko’ Jackson, Head of Fixed Income, and his team of specialist investors considers the areas that have the potential to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns.
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Investment View - Sudden stop, permanent scars
Six months ago our quarterly ‘Investment Views’ (Graph 1) lamented about the spread of the negative yield disease. In 2020 a far more dangerous and lethal epidemic has hit society, the economy and financial markets: the coronavirus. As we go to press, more than 1.2 million cases have been recorded globally (a number likely grossly under-estimated, given the under-testing), for a death toll of 65k.
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A Shocking (But Complicated) Employment Report Next Friday
Unemployment will clearly skyrocket, yet the April Employment Report next Friday won’t tell the full story, and the impacts will differ by state and industry.
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Roads to recovery from the coronavirus crisis
Will the global economic and market recoveries chart a V, U, W or swoosh-shaped recovery from the coronavirus crisis – or take a completely different course?
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The TALF 2.0 Opportunity in Asset Backed Securities
During the 2008 – 10 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve’s Term Asset Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) enabled double-digit returns from high-rated ABS. What are the prospects under TALF 2.0, part of the Fed’s COVID-19 response?