All Emerging Market Debt articles – Page 20
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White papersMacro and structural woes leave banks out in the cold
With valuations plumbing depths seen in 2009 and 2012, and headwinds many and varied, is there hope on the horizon for one of Europe’s most beleaguered sectors?
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White papersBrexit: revamping the fiscal toolbox
The Brexit referendum was more than three years ago, but it is still not clear when the UK will leave the European Union (EU). Business has suffered and consumers may start to feel the pinch, particularly if there is a cliff-edge exit at the end of the transition period. As we head into early elections on 12 December, we consider how it may be up to fiscal policies to weather the fallout.
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White papersEarnings Kick Into Gear as Brexit Drama Heightens
With 34% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, so far profits aren’t as bad as expected; risk of a no-deal Brexit recedes and positive signs from the U.S.-China Trade War.
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White papersThree Reasons to Invest in Risk Assets… & Five Risks
Markets still have room, but the clouds are gathering. Last year’s scars remain fresh for many investors as they navigate toward the end of the year.
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White papersEmerging Markets Debt: Taking a Hard (Currency) Stance
EMD performance was muted in Q3, but valuations remain attractive and emerging economies are growing at a measured pace. We continue to favor hard currency assets, which are benefitting from lower rate expectations.
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White papersInfrastructure Debt: Steady Activity, Lingering Macro Doubts
Despite the expected seasonal summer slowdown, infrastructure debt financing deals remained steady overall in the third quarter of 2019—with strong activity in the U.S. and Canada, and slightly slowing activity in Europe, with a cautious eye toward Brexit.
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White papersEM Debt: Navigating the Geopolitical Noise
From the Middle East to China to Argentina, investors face no shortage of geopolitical risks and negative headlines. But is there still value to be found across emerging markets? Dr. Ricardo Adrogué weighs in.
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White papersItaly: Few Ambitions From The New Budget Framework
On 30 September the newly formed Italian government released an update to April’s Economic and Finance Document, with new fiscal plans for the years 2019 to 2022 and changes to the underlying economic assumptions.
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White papersTrump Impeachment Is Likely, But Impact On Financial Markets Would Be Short-Lived
Impeachment process: The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long and articulated. An 80% probability that Trump will be impeached, followed by acquittal in the Senate, which would keep him in office for the remainder of his term, is our base case scenario.
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White papersWebinar: objective danger in the investment environment
Markets may have reached record peaks earlier this year, but the geopolitical environment is fraught and central-bank oxygen may not prop up asset prices for much longer. We expect more outbursts of pent-up volatility going forward as investors face up to the growing risks in this high-altitude market.
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White papersEmerging Markets Sovereign Debt: Does Active Management Pay?
The performance of Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt can—and does—vary widely from country to country. In this piece, Barings’ Cem Karacadag explores how an active approach can be key to selecting the most attractive opportunities, while also avoiding the bad apples.
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White papersInvesting in an era of heightened risk velocity
For investors navigating current market conditions—an environment where a single tweet can change the market direction and momentum—it is not just the risks themselves that are challenging but also the elevated pace at which risks can move from peripheral threats to portfolio impacts. We call this “risk velocity.” This paper explores the primary drivers for this phenomenon and potential asset allocation implications.
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White papersInvesting In Chinese Onshore Debt - Overcoming the storm
Writing in the South China Morning Post Cary Yeung head of greater China debt explains why the country’s USD13 trillion onshore bond market is well-placed to overcome a weak yuan and the trade war.
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White papers
Low Touch Compression
Low Touch Compression is the next evolution in the compression process, delivering improved usability, user transparency and full automation together with API technology.
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White papersThe ECB And The EU Banking Sector: Some Relief, With Winners And Losers
The new two-tier deposit-reserving scheme: With this measure the European banking sector could save up to c. €4 billion in annual interest costs (based on avoiding the -50bps deposit rate). However, while a large number in absolute terms, this only accounts for c. 2% of earnings on average for the main banks in the sector and therefore has little impact on overall Returns on Equity and profitability metrics.
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White papersSouth Africa’s economy under pressure
A possible downgrade by Moody’s could compound South Africa’s economic difficulties as Sabrina Khanniche explains.
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White papersThe Fed Cuts Rate, But The Market Expects More
The Fed cut rates, but the market expects more: As expected the Federal Reserve lowered its target range for the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis, and now the market anticipates as many as three more cuts by the end of 2020. We think that is too much. In our view, the Fed is likely to pause to monitor the effects of the rate cuts on the economy, before acting again.
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White papersCluster Analysis: Managing Risks You Didn’t Know You Had
From anthropology to politics, analysts in many fields have used cluster analysis to help decipher complex relationships for nearly 90 years. But investment firms are only beginning to discover the powerful applications for detecting unknown risks lurking in market behavior patterns.
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White papersQ4 Economic Outlook: Learning To Live With Deflation...
In his latest Economic outlook, Neil Williams, Senior Economic Adviser to Hermes Investment Management, argues that Japan-style deflation is becoming an increasing possibility elsewhere. While it may not involve a general downturn in living standards – Japan after all remains a prosperous G3, $5trn economy (almost twice the UK’s) – the main challenge would be the shift in mind-set needed to live with it.
