All Emerging Market Debt articles – Page 21
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White papersThree Reasons to Invest in Risk Assets… & Five Risks
Markets still have room, but the clouds are gathering. Last year’s scars remain fresh for many investors as they navigate toward the end of the year.
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White papersEmerging Markets Debt: Taking a Hard (Currency) Stance
EMD performance was muted in Q3, but valuations remain attractive and emerging economies are growing at a measured pace. We continue to favor hard currency assets, which are benefitting from lower rate expectations.
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White papersInfrastructure Debt: Steady Activity, Lingering Macro Doubts
Despite the expected seasonal summer slowdown, infrastructure debt financing deals remained steady overall in the third quarter of 2019—with strong activity in the U.S. and Canada, and slightly slowing activity in Europe, with a cautious eye toward Brexit.
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White papersEM Debt: Navigating the Geopolitical Noise
From the Middle East to China to Argentina, investors face no shortage of geopolitical risks and negative headlines. But is there still value to be found across emerging markets? Dr. Ricardo Adrogué weighs in.
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White papersItaly: Few Ambitions From The New Budget Framework
On 30 September the newly formed Italian government released an update to April’s Economic and Finance Document, with new fiscal plans for the years 2019 to 2022 and changes to the underlying economic assumptions.
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White papersTrump Impeachment Is Likely, But Impact On Financial Markets Would Be Short-Lived
Impeachment process: The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long and articulated. An 80% probability that Trump will be impeached, followed by acquittal in the Senate, which would keep him in office for the remainder of his term, is our base case scenario.
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White papersWebinar: objective danger in the investment environment
Markets may have reached record peaks earlier this year, but the geopolitical environment is fraught and central-bank oxygen may not prop up asset prices for much longer. We expect more outbursts of pent-up volatility going forward as investors face up to the growing risks in this high-altitude market.
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White papersEmerging Markets Sovereign Debt: Does Active Management Pay?
The performance of Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt can—and does—vary widely from country to country. In this piece, Barings’ Cem Karacadag explores how an active approach can be key to selecting the most attractive opportunities, while also avoiding the bad apples.
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White papersInvesting in an era of heightened risk velocity
For investors navigating current market conditions—an environment where a single tweet can change the market direction and momentum—it is not just the risks themselves that are challenging but also the elevated pace at which risks can move from peripheral threats to portfolio impacts. We call this “risk velocity.” This paper explores the primary drivers for this phenomenon and potential asset allocation implications.
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White papers
Low Touch Compression
Low Touch Compression is the next evolution in the compression process, delivering improved usability, user transparency and full automation together with API technology.
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White papersThe ECB And The EU Banking Sector: Some Relief, With Winners And Losers
The new two-tier deposit-reserving scheme: With this measure the European banking sector could save up to c. €4 billion in annual interest costs (based on avoiding the -50bps deposit rate). However, while a large number in absolute terms, this only accounts for c. 2% of earnings on average for the main banks in the sector and therefore has little impact on overall Returns on Equity and profitability metrics.
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White papersThe Fed Cuts Rate, But The Market Expects More
The Fed cut rates, but the market expects more: As expected the Federal Reserve lowered its target range for the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis, and now the market anticipates as many as three more cuts by the end of 2020. We think that is too much. In our view, the Fed is likely to pause to monitor the effects of the rate cuts on the economy, before acting again.
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White papersCluster Analysis: Managing Risks You Didn’t Know You Had
From anthropology to politics, analysts in many fields have used cluster analysis to help decipher complex relationships for nearly 90 years. But investment firms are only beginning to discover the powerful applications for detecting unknown risks lurking in market behavior patterns.
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White papersQ4 Economic Outlook: Learning To Live With Deflation...
In his latest Economic outlook, Neil Williams, Senior Economic Adviser to Hermes Investment Management, argues that Japan-style deflation is becoming an increasing possibility elsewhere. While it may not involve a general downturn in living standards – Japan after all remains a prosperous G3, $5trn economy (almost twice the UK’s) – the main challenge would be the shift in mind-set needed to live with it.
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White papersLeaders’ Perspectives: Quarterly – Autumn 2019
In the Autumn 2019 issue of the Leader’s Perspectives:
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White papersIlliquidity: understanding the premium in fixed-income markets
Years of low interest rates have prompted fixed-income investors to look beyond traditional sources of yield and consider whether illiquid assets can boost returns. But while this illiquidity premium is widely discussed and increasingly sought, it has been inadequately measured and investors lack an understanding of how it operates in different conditions.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - September 2019
Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now.
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White papersDistressed Debt: Seeking Opportunity in Choppy Waters
Investors are increasingly looking to distressed debt as the credit cycle matures. But with a competitive landscape and significant growth in private credit and European high yield, this cycle could look different than those of the past. Stuart Mathieson, Head of Barings’ Global Special Situations group, and Bryan High, Co-Portfolio Manager of the strategy, discuss how the macro environment is impacting their outlook, and where they’re seeing opportunities today.
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White papersEmerging Markets Charts & Views - Q3 2019
The recent dovishness from the Fed, a benign inflation environment and the easing in global financial conditions continue to support a goldilocks environment for Emerging Markets (EM) assets. On the risks side, trade disputes appear to be softening as we approach the US presidential campaign. But the existing tariffs are weighing on the corporate earnings, with mixed prospects across regions as some countries are also benefitting from a restructuring of the global supply chain.
