All Emerging Market Debt articles – Page 26
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White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy: October 2018
The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year.
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White papers
US rates are rising. What’s next for Emerging Market Bonds?
Blended approach to emerging-market bonds most resilient to US rate rises
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White papers
Global Investment Views: October 2018
The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year. While the ongoing US/China trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, the sequence of country-specific stories (Turkey, Argentina and South Africa) contributed to the almost indiscriminate repricing of EM assets, starting with plummeting EM currencies.
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White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy: September 2018
Italian budget discussions are going to intensify as the 27th of September approaches, date of publication of the document outlining the new budget law and when there should be more clarity on the key economic projections and deficit targets.
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White papers
Emerging markets: Mid-year Review
Early euphoria has slowly evaporated in an eventful six months which has taken in trade wars and political uncertainty in Mexico and Brazil.
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White papers
Turkey shakes summer thin markets, but contagion risk is contained
The domestic boom has been financed by private debt (mainly external debt). Well before this week’s crisis, Turkey was the most vulnerable country in our EM ranking
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White papers
Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q3 2018
The current global expansion is set to run until 2020, with above potential growth in most countries in 2018 and 2019. However, the global GDP growth has started to decelerate and we expect it to slow further in 2020.
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White papers
Global Investment Views: August 2018
Concerns about trade continue to take centre stage. While US assets have so far been resilient amid escalating protectionist rhetoric, markets targeted by tariffs are under pressure.
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White papers
Exchange rate predictability in Emerging Markets
This paper uses financial and macroeconomic variables to predict currency returns, by using a two-step procedure. The first step consists of a cointegration equation that explains the exchange rate level as a function of global and domestic financial factors. The second step estimates an error-correction equation, for modeling the expected returns. This approach is a factor model analysis, where a Lasso derived technique is used for variable selection.
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White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy: July 2018
Since the beginning of the year, emerging market risky assets have become more volatile.
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White papers
Emerging Market Debt: The Hidden Potential of an Under-Explored Asset Class
Over the last three decades emerging market debt has evolved into fixed-income’s most dynamic asset class. No longer the exotic terrain of specialist investors, emerging markets boast highly liquid, local-currency sovereign and corporate bonds as well as hard-currency ones.
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White papers
Anticipating a strong year for bonds
In contrast to tightening monetary policy in the US and a lower pace of quantitative easing in Europe, Asian central banks are maintaining accommodative monetary policy.
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White papers
Strategic Relative Value: Q2 2018
Even modest upward interest rate adjustments can be disruptive to risk markets when they collide with slowing economic growth, shifting monetary regimes, and geopolitical shocks.
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White papers
Asset Allocation Update: Strong earnings prompt US equities upgrade
Amid background noise such as ongoing trade skirmishes involving the US, the evolving Chinese economy and geo-political tensions, we have spent time analysing recent market movements and the implications for risk assets.
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White papers
Opportunities in Emerging-Market Local Currency Bonds
As the emerging-market debt asset class continues to evolve and expand, investors are increasingly looking for strategies that are dedicated to the segment of the market denominated in local (i.e., domestic) currencies versus hard/external currencies [i.e., the US dollar (USD) or euro]. Rationales range from diversification benefits and inflation hedges to reducing external debt vulnerabilities such as US interest-rate risk on USD-denominated emerging-market bonds within a portfolio. We see several compelling reasons to consider emerging markets and, in particular, local currency bonds.
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White papers
Emerging Markets, Emerging Political Change
A lot of positive political change isn’t reflected in emerging market asset prices. EM investors still demand extra return for political risk even though that risk is going down in some countries—and opportunities are increasing.
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White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy: May 2018
While in 2017 financial markets largely ignored geopolitical risks, as they were more inclined to read the Goldilocks narrative, this mood now appears to be changing.
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White papers
Rising Rates Survival Guide
Looking for new sources of income and diversification will be crucial to dealing with the challenges of rising interest rates and inflation.