All Emerging Market Debt articles – Page 23
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White papersEM Debt: Navigating a Shifting Macro Backdrop
After a rocky 2018, the picture may be brightening for emerging markets debt. From rising rates to trade wars, some of last year’s headwinds look to be receding, at least for now. Barings’ Ricardo Adroguè and Omotunde Lawal highlight opportunities they’re currently seeing.
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White papers
EM Debt—A Brightening Picture?
Barings’ Ricardo Adroguè and Omotunde Lawal highlight opportunities they’re seeing from Mexico and Brazil to more challenged geographies like Turkey and Argentina—and provide insight into how they’re thinking about political hotspots like Venezuela.
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White papers
China: Looking at Growth Past the Trade War
China’s growth is decelerating, it is loaded with debt and is involved in a high stakes trade war with the United States. Despite these issues, China’s economy appears to be holding up better than one might have expected. In fact, China’s growth could even accelerate in 2019 in response to aggressive monetary easing.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy Special Edition: Outlook 2019
With late cycle features continuing to materialise and a higher level of vulnerability developing due to the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, 2019 will require investors to embrace a more prudent approach, despite the benign global economic outlook.
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White papers
Is it Time to Consider a Blended Approach to EMD?
How can investors tap into the diverse opportunities within EM debt? Ricard Adrogué, Head of Emerging Markets Debt and Omotunde Lawal Head of Emerging Markets Corporate Credit Research, weigh in.
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White papersWhy Spanish bond markets are celebrating divergence from Italy
The country tackled its economic problems earlier than its Mediterranean counterpart.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy: October 2018
The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views: October 2018
The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year. While the ongoing US/China trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, the sequence of country-specific stories (Turkey, Argentina and South Africa) contributed to the almost indiscriminate repricing of EM assets, starting with plummeting EM currencies.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy: September 2018
Italian budget discussions are going to intensify as the 27th of September approaches, date of publication of the document outlining the new budget law and when there should be more clarity on the key economic projections and deficit targets.
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White papersEmerging markets: Mid-year Review
Early euphoria has slowly evaporated in an eventful six months which has taken in trade wars and political uncertainty in Mexico and Brazil.
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White papersTurkey shakes summer thin markets, but contagion risk is contained
The domestic boom has been financed by private debt (mainly external debt). Well before this week’s crisis, Turkey was the most vulnerable country in our EM ranking
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White papersAsset Class Return Forecasts: Q3 2018
The current global expansion is set to run until 2020, with above potential growth in most countries in 2018 and 2019. However, the global GDP growth has started to decelerate and we expect it to slow further in 2020.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views: August 2018
Concerns about trade continue to take centre stage. While US assets have so far been resilient amid escalating protectionist rhetoric, markets targeted by tariffs are under pressure.
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White papersExchange rate predictability in Emerging Markets
This paper uses financial and macroeconomic variables to predict currency returns, by using a two-step procedure. The first step consists of a cointegration equation that explains the exchange rate level as a function of global and domestic financial factors. The second step estimates an error-correction equation, for modeling the expected returns. This approach is a factor model analysis, where a Lasso derived technique is used for variable selection.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy: July 2018
Since the beginning of the year, emerging market risky assets have become more volatile.
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White papersAnticipating a strong year for bonds
In contrast to tightening monetary policy in the US and a lower pace of quantitative easing in Europe, Asian central banks are maintaining accommodative monetary policy.
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White papersStrategic Relative Value: Q2 2018
Even modest upward interest rate adjustments can be disruptive to risk markets when they collide with slowing economic growth, shifting monetary regimes, and geopolitical shocks.
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White papersAsset Allocation Update: Strong earnings prompt US equities upgrade
Amid background noise such as ongoing trade skirmishes involving the US, the evolving Chinese economy and geo-political tensions, we have spent time analysing recent market movements and the implications for risk assets.
