All Commentary articles – Page 139
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White papersIn Search Of The Bottom In The Covid-19 Crisis
In this unprecedented time of high uncertainty from a sanitary and economic perspective, the different drivers at play are moving in different directions. These forces make the exercise of GDP forecasting quite tricky and not particularly helpful for the time being.
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White papersEconomic and Property Overview: Q4 2019
The UK economy flatlined in the final quarter of 2019 as declines in manufacturing sector output offset positive growth from the construction and services sector. Relative to the same quarter a year ago, economic output grew by 1.1%, which represents the weakest annual growth rate since mid-2012. However, a post election bounce back in business confidence should provide some upside to economic activity in the first half of 2020. The composite score on the IHS Markit/CIPS UK purchasing managers index (PMI) climbed to 53.3 in January from 49.3 in December.
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White papersShock and Awe
Does this week’s multitrillion-dollar shot in the arm vaccinate the economy against the worst impact of COVID-19?
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White papersOutlook special – Potential impact of COVID-19 on global infrastructure markets
Pinpoint economic forecasts are unrealistic; of most relevance to infrastructure investors is the likely sharp contraction in GDP growth (at least in the short term), lower oil prices and stress in the credit markets.
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White papersCoronavirus: a pragmatic response to market panic
Fixed-income investors loathe uncertainty. But for them and societies worldwide, this is currently the defining characteristic of markets and daily life. How can they respond pragmatically to the pandemic?
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White papersReal Estate Outlook – Japan, Edition 2020
Opportunities despite traditional vulnerabilities.
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White papersOne Quarter Or Two?
Markets will stabilize when investors start to focus on the same question.
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White papersOne month for the history books
Global equities (MSCI World) have lost 30% since the 19th of February, as the Chinese sanitary crisis morphed into a Global Covid Crisis (GCC). This is the fastest sell-off ever. The drawdown has cut $24 trillion from the global equity market capitalisation – more than the annual US GDP! Investors are scared and praying that the contagion of the coronavirus will slow. But for now the pandemic crisis is still worsening: in the 7 days to 19 March, the total numbers of cases, now 235k, has increased at an average 9% per day.
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White papersUS Economic Scenarios in Context of Covid-19
Given the fluid and fast-moving nature of the pandemic, calculating the impact to growth is challenging, but global agencies, including the IMF, are increasingly concerned that the world is likely to face a recession.
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White papersGold at the End of the Government’s Rainbow
Initial claims show the first impact on the U.S. labor market and are likely to increase, the second U.S. stimulus package is in the books and a third is on the way while the ECB announces a Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program.
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White papersGIAM Macro & Market Research - Market Commentary
Yesterday evening the ECB surprisingly launched its new QE program “to counter the serious risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the outlook for the euro area posed by the outbreak and escalating diffusion of the coronavirus, COVID-19.” At the March 12 policy meeting President Lagarde made clear that the response to the crisis should be “fiscal first and foremost”. However, the dramatic developments since then – with specifically sovereign euro area bond spreads rising strongly – induced further ECB action.
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White papersCovid-19 update - Current credit market perspectives
The rapidly expanding footprint of the new Covid- 19 coronavirus, has shaken investor confidence, with significant falls in global equity markets as investors focus on the likely recessionary impact on global growth, as well as the direct sectoral impacts in key areas such as tourism, retail, autos and at company level on supply chain exposures to China. This has also fed into global credit markets.
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White papersQuarterly Economic Outlook: Keeping the Punch Bowl Filled
In his latest Economic Outlook, Senior Economic Adviser to the International business of Federated Hermes, Neil Williams, looks at the arguments for keeping the punch bowl of central-bank liquidity filled, and warns that we may only be half way through our current era of cheap money.
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White papersEuropean Research Flash Report
Global economic growth expectations for 2020 have been adjusted significantly downwards amid the spreading of the COVID- 19 virus and oil price decline. Based on this, at least some leading European economies are expected to go into recession in 2020. But, in contrast to the GFC, the current event-driven crisis could prove temporary as economic fundamentals were strong at its outset, possibly signalling a V-shaped recovery.
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White papersOutlook 2020: European commercial real estate
Parts of European commercial real estate look challenged in 2020, but opportunities can still be found, especially in “winning cities”.
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White papersOutlook 2020: Private equity
As headwinds build for traditional assets, we expect private equity to attract more new capital in 2020, but there are some pockets with high valuations where investors should be careful.
