All Commentary articles – Page 140
-
White papersAEW Research Flash Report - June 2020
In this fifth update since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, we define a new base case scenario by being more precise about our cash shortfall and yield widening assumptions for individual markets and quantify both short and long-term return implications across more individual markets.
-
White papersHow the COVID-19 Crisis Validates Sustainable Investing
The economic and market challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic have put investors through a trial by fire this year. Yet the crisis has also validated sustainable investing strategies focused on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors.
-
White papersMarkets scenarios & risks - July 2020
We marginally amend the narrative of our central and alternative scenario on the back of recent developments. We also increase
the probability of our central scenario from 50 to 60% while reducing the likelihood of the upside scenario from 30 to 20%. -
White papersThematics views - July 2020
Covid-19 is a symmetric shock with asymmetric outcomes. Existin imbalances within Europe such as public debt, economic models or vision for the union, turn to cracks and the EU is facing fragmentation risks. However, the EU should be able to get over it as it did with the Global Financial Crisis.
-
White papersSpotlight on Sterling credit - Identifying opportunities
The strong recovery in sterling credit in Q2 can mask some underlying developments within the index, creating both risk and opportunity. Much of the current attractive credit premium at the overall index level may be attributed to a relatively small number of sectors and issuers, while in the current economic climate, even those sectors traditionally considered lower risk, may be more vulnerable than many investors think.
-
White papersWeekly Investment Update – 24 June 2020
The number of countries lifting their COVID-19 lockdowns is increasing, and sentiment indicators are picking up. Levels of mobility are accelerating. This should help the real economy to spring back at a faster pace than was originally envisaged. Data appears to be bottoming and markets are expecting it to improve at a stronger pace going forward.
-
White papersThe day after #8 - Deglobalisation could improve diversification but also exacerbate financial contagion
In recent years world trade dynamics have definitely shown an accentuated inversion of the globalisation trend and its robust contribution to global economic performance. The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) marked a historic turning point in the degree of global economic integration. Since 2007/08 global trade has entered a period of increasingly protectionist policies (trade barriers, national subsidies, national champions), decelerating growth in trade-intensive sectors, rising policy uncertainty and more recently, trade tensions.
-
White papersGlobal Investment Views – July 2020
Covid-19 has triggered a sequence of economic and financial market narratives and is giving way to a new status quo characterised by extreme fiscal and monetary measures, to which markets have responded well, though some volatility has returned in the past few days. In effect, these policy measures are painting a new picture, that of a “day after” renaissance.
-
White papersDefaults, disruption and development: Real assets adjust to the new normal
While lockdown measures gradually start to ease, it is still far from business as usual in the real assets sector. Mark Versey explains the impact for investors.
-
White papersInfrastructure in a post-COVID world – June 2020
COVID-19 and the end of infrastructure as we know it?
-
White papersMarket weekly – What to expect after the Great Pandemic of 2020 (podcast)
The unprecedented crisis caused by COVID-19 has left asset allocators disorientated. Uncertainty has deepened and the outlook is now for bond and equity returns to be lower for even longer, making the hunt for yield all the more acute for investors.
-
White papersAsset allocation – Dealing with ‘lower for longer’
The unprecedented crisis caused by COVID-19 has left asset allocators disorientated. Uncertainty has deepened and the outlook now is for bond and equity returns to be lower for even longer, making the hunt for yield all the more acute for investors.
-
White papersThe sustainability of sustainability: green finance during the pandemic
Sustainable finance has been resilient amid the market shock, as a heightened awareness of environmental, social and governance (ESG) behaviours has coincided with a surge of regulatory changes and an uptick in green capital-market activities.
-
White papersLogistics: ‘Last mile’ or further to run?
Following a decade of bumper demand and returns, many experts are questioning whether logistics real estate assets have reached their prime or whether they still have further to run. Vivienne Bolla argues the latter.
-
White papers(Weekly Pandemic) Market Commentary – Mind the curve
The virus - galloping, but less deadly. Covid is spreading like never before, the stats say. 19 June saw 177k new Covid cases, the highest ever. The 5-day rolling average, currently at 143k, is 50k higher than in mid-May. Arguably, the numbers today are likely more truthful than in the past, because there is more testing. In a freshly released Focal Point “Covid-19: proprietary models set to monitor pandemic evolution” (online on 22 June), we advocate basing cases estimates on deaths – a measure less affected by testing issues.
-
White papersThe Growth of Private Equity Secondaries
The Global Financial Crisis provided opportunities and growth in the Secondaries market as a means to gain liquidity, but is that the same case today as a result of COVID-19? Or has the investment landscape changed? Guests Tristram Perkins and Benjamin Perl discuss what some of the key differences and similarities might be, along with how the Secondaries market has developed before the pandemic hit, as investors are adjusting to the “new normal” in today’s market.
-
Asset Manager NewsProsperity and preservation: the aim of active ownership
The exogeneous shock of the coronavirus pandemic has confirmed the importance of sustainability. We have absolute conviction that we must continue to act as owners of companies and help shape the narrative of the role of sustainability in a post-coronavirus world.
-
White papersReal Estate Outlook, Switzerland
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the economic outlook abruptly. Switzerland is set to experience a sharp GDP contraction in 2020, although economic activity is slowly recovering thanks to the progressive lifting of the soft lockdown measures. This situation supports a continued extreme low interest rate environment, which contributes to the attractiveness of Swiss real estate investments.
-
White papers2020 Isn’t Only Hindsight
By any conventional measure, the current recovery and expansion phase of the U.S. business cycle is the longest in the nation’s history. This naturally leads many to conclude that the economy, and by extension property markets, must be “late cycle” with an inevitable downturn just around the corner.
-
White papersU.S. Economic & Property Market Perspective Q1 2020
At the beginning of March, the U.S. economy was on pace to record another quarter of moderate but positive growth. Total employment had increased by 214,000 in January and 275,000 in February and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s real-time model (GDPNow) suggested annualized real GDP growth of 2.5% for the quarter. Within a span of just a few weeks, that assessment was radically upended as more than 30 million American workers lost their jobs in the rapid shutdown of wide swathes of the U.S. economy in response to the equally rapid spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19).
