All Commentary articles – Page 135
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White papersGlobal Investment Views – June 2020
The dichotomy between the false market tranquillity and the high level of uncertainty about the length of the crisis and its long-term implications is striking. In our view, we are far from being out of the woods and investors should stay alert as current market levels are still pricing in a ‘too rosy too soon’ endgame. The race between the three cycles will continue.
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White papersNot Out of the Woods
The discipline of scenario planning helps us focus on what has been achieved, rather than what we hope will be achieved.
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White papersEM Debt: Downturns, Defaults & Diamonds in the Rough
Barings’ Omotunde Lawal and Cem Karacadag explain how COVID-19 is impacting the economies of emerging markets, and how lower oil prices and loose monetary policies may influence the future default picture.
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White papersStructural change implications of the Coronavirus experience
As we sit here in the spring of 2020, looking out on our respective neighborhoods from our home offices, we’re well underway into another seasonal change. But unlike any previous spring season, 2020 has swamped us with unthinkable change. For far too many, this spring has brought dire economic and employment conditions.
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White papersWhy cities? Why global?
Nuveen Real Estate explains why an investment approach for global cities needs to create a diversified portfolio of resilient assets positioned for the long term.
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White papersForecasting the Next Decade: Navigating Uncharted Waters
Barings Multi Asset Group combines the underlying factors that will drive markets over the long term with today’s valuations to produce total return forecasts for major asset classes over the next ten years.
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White papersVolatility, Tech & ESG: COVID’s Impact on Global Equities
COVID-19 has proved challenging for businesses—but opportunities have emerged, particularly for companies with business models built to capitalize on long-term structural trends. Dr. Ghadir Cooper shares her views on equity markets today and what to expect going forward.
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White papersPrognosis Negative Amid Trade Tension Remission
Further criticism of China’s initial virus response may threaten additional tariffs and trade deals going forward. The E.U. appears to be a step closer to a common-issue coronabond and, U.S. high frequency data is pointing to some improvement in May.
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White papersFiorino: in this pandemic, asset quality is key to banks’ health
In this launch issue of Fiorino, our blog focused on deciphering complexity in global financials, we assess how banks are preparing for corporate defaults resulting from lockdowns across economies worldwide.
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White papersCoronavirus – weekly update – 20 May 2020
Exists from lockdown proceed with no major mishaps, leading the stock markets to still trade sideways. Progress towards implementing budget support is slow, which constitutes a potential risk and a source of volatility.
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White papersMarket Risk Insights: portfolio triage
In the Q2 2020 issue of Market Risk Insights, we provide our latest analysis of six key risk factors – volatility, correlation, stretch, liquidity, event and environmental, social and governance (ESG) – in order to help investors navigate the coronavirus sell-off.
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White papersA decade of change in global high yield
Globalisation and the rise of new instruments, credit quality and sustainability made the last decade one of significant evolution for the high-yield market – and for our team investing in this asset class.
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White papersAssessing the Known Unknowns
While the list of worries is long, we will focus on three key uncertainties that, if known, should give us more clarity about the direction of markets. As some of these unknowns are coming into view, each of them creates unknowns of their own.
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White papersFocus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario
If we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a return to pre-crisis levels. In Italy, the government is estimating an 8% GDP contraction this year, followed by a 4.7% YoY rebound in 2021. In our analysis, we consider two possible reference scenarios for 2020 growth: -8.0% YoY (as per the government scenario) and -12.0% YoY.
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White papersEmerging Markets Charts & Views - Market dislocation creating long-term opportunities
Two major drivers are shaping the landscape for EM countries: Covid-19 and oil dynamics. We are mindful that current events will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlook for EM this year, leading many countries into recession.
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White papersA letter from Asia
As the initial epicentre of the coronavirus, many lessons can be learnt from China: For example, the importance a swift government response (resting on lessons learnt during the SARS outbreak in 2002-2003) with total or partial lockdowns across many cities alongside other mobility restrictions and intensified health screening.
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White papersTransparency boots real estate investment in Asia Pacific
LaSalle Head of Asia Pacific Research Elysia Tse explains for increased transparency has been a boon for institutional investment into Asia.
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White papersAsset Class Return Forecasts - Q2 - 2020
In our latest analysis released at the beginning of the year, we had laid out our medium-term outlook as a correction of the business cycle, including an economic slowdown, yield curve inversion, a return to lower bound policy rates, and subdued inflation prints. The global shocks resulting from the eruption of the coronavirus pandemic have significantly altered the sequence of economic and financial phases, shortened the timeframe and expanded the scale of the ripple effect.
