All Commentary articles – Page 132
-
White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2020
After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. There is clearly a battle between bull and bear forces taking place. On the bull side, extraordinary policy actions continue to propel market sentiment (signals of virus-peaking in Europe and hopes of sooner-than-expected re-opening). On the bear side, deteriorating fundamentals from the earnings season and the sustainability of the mounting debt pile will be key risks. The tug of war between sentiment and fundamentals is just the first in a long list of battles in course.
-
White papersContraction > recovery > late cycle: a cycle round trip in three years
The pandemic outbreak altered the cycle of financial regimes we had in mind at the end of 2019, with consequences extending over the medium term: after a sharp contraction in 2020, 2021 will see a “recovery” in the growth and profit cycle with a rebound in risky assets while in 2022, we expect a normalization towards a late cycle.
-
White papersMarkets Scenarios & Risks - May 2020
The potential easing of lockdown measures bring some light at the end of the tunnel. This is particularly the case in Europe where several countries are opening back shops, manufacturing capabilities or services. Data show that the worse is probably over in Italy and France for instance, but in the US, many states such as New York remain in an acute phase of the outbreak. Moreover, emerging countries are still at the beginning of the pandemic. Although it is too early to draw a conclusion, the low level of death toll registered so far in Africa gives hope for a more benign impact than feared. On one hand, these countries’ infrastructures will make the disease mo
-
White papersFact-finding and Fortune-telling in U.S. Real Estate
Barings’ John Ockerbloom and Colin Gordon discuss the material consequences of COVID-19 for the real estate markets broadly as well as sector by sector—and predict how real estate portfolios may change in the years ahead.
-
White papersThree Reasons to Consider a Long-Term Allocation to Small-Caps
The volatility driven by COVID-19 and the fall in oil prices has created much uncertainty—but it has also provided a potential opportunity to make long-term investments at attractive prices.
-
White papersEquities: Finding Long-term Growth Amid Current Volatility
Barings’ Global Head of Equities, Dr. Ghadir Cooper, discusses the impacts of COVID-19, the opportunity for companies capitalizing on structural growth trends from technology to demographics, and the integral role of ESG in fundamental analysis.
-
White papersASEAN: Where Positive Demographics Meet Supportive Secular Trends
Recent market volatility has created what we view as an attractive opportunity in ASEAN equities—particularly to tap into selective structural growth stories at compelling valuations.
-
White papersCOVID-19 and beyond: Three predictions for transport infrastructure
Constant reminders that COVID-19 ‘does not discriminate’ seem in stark contrast to the social and economic consequences playing out in front of us. Some sectors are clearly being hit harder than others – perhaps none more so than transport. Laurence Monnier looks at the long-term implications for the industry and its supporting infrastructure.
-
White papersAviva Investors and Lincoln Pensions DB De-Risking Webcast
DB pension schemes are slowly but surely heading towards their endgame. The uncertain cost of pensions continues to put pressure on sponsor companies, while trustees must adapt to ever-changing regulations and challenges.
-
White papersTransform a major trend into an investment opportunity
The ageing of the world’s population phenomenon is a megatrend not called into question by the Covid-19 crisis.
-
White papersInvesting today for a better tomorrow - Euro Green & Sustainable Bond
Green business is good business. Global green bond issuance climbed by nearly 50% last year (Climate Bond Initiative, 2020) and it is set to continue its growth as investors’ demand for more sustainable investments with a real impact on society is increasing.
-
White papersInvestment View - Sudden stop, permanent scars
Six months ago our quarterly ‘Investment Views’ (Graph 1) lamented about the spread of the negative yield disease. In 2020 a far more dangerous and lethal epidemic has hit society, the economy and financial markets: the coronavirus. As we go to press, more than 1.2 million cases have been recorded globally (a number likely grossly under-estimated, given the under-testing), for a death toll of 65k.
-
Asset Manager NewsGenerali Global Infrastructure Q2 newsletter
This quarter, we asked Jacques Delpla, a well-known French economist, to share his views about the current crisis. Jacques Delpla’s views are not put forward as recommendations, recognising that other views exist but the analysis clearly shows the severity of the shock and the potential implications in terms of contraction of GDP and increase in public deficits.
-
White papersA Shocking (But Complicated) Employment Report Next Friday
Unemployment will clearly skyrocket, yet the April Employment Report next Friday won’t tell the full story, and the impacts will differ by state and industry.
-
White papersApril Macro Dashboard
Long gone are the tales of a V-shaped recovery as the U.S. economy has fallen rapidly into the steepest recession in recorded history. The European economy is experiencing a very sharp contraction as well. There are signs of hope as China’s economy appears to be stabilizing.
-
White papersPE Investing at Turning Points in the Market Cycle
Shifting assets from public to private equity in and around recent major downturns has been a rewarding strategy.
-
White papersWhy the Covid-19 crisis is different for private assets
Looking for lessons in the past can be valuable, but Covid-19 poses a unique challenge for the financial system. We look at the ways private assets will (or won’t) be affected.
-
White papersCoronavirus – Weekly update – 29 April 2020
The COVID-19 caseload has now reached almost 3 million infected cases and there have been over 210 000 fatalities. The death toll is on the decline now in Europe and appears to have plateaued in the US, albeit at a high level. As always, we highlight that caution must be taken in interpreting the data in both the time series and the cross section, given the different approaches to measurement and testing across countries.
-
White papersFive themes to show where the COVID-19 crisis is heading
With over 3 million people infected worldwide (Worldometers as of 29th April 2020), the Covid-19 pandemic has created huge economic uncertainty and volatility. However, markets cannot wait for complete clarity on the outlook and, as asset managers, nor can we. Therefore, we have identified six key signposts to help navigate the Covid-19 crisis and make better-informed decisions.
-
White papersGlobal Investment Views - May 2020
After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. There is clearly a battle between bull and bear forces taking place.
