All Commentary articles – Page 129
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White papersMarket Risk Insights: portfolio triage
In the Q2 2020 issue of Market Risk Insights, we provide our latest analysis of six key risk factors – volatility, correlation, stretch, liquidity, event and environmental, social and governance (ESG) – in order to help investors navigate the coronavirus sell-off.
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White papersA decade of change in global high yield
Globalisation and the rise of new instruments, credit quality and sustainability made the last decade one of significant evolution for the high-yield market – and for our team investing in this asset class.
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White papersA look at why insurance-linked securities are largely immune to the Covid-19 volatility
Insurance-linked securities have been almost unaffected by the market turmoil linked to coronavirus. We look into the mechanisms that make them more resilient.
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White papersAssessing the Known Unknowns
While the list of worries is long, we will focus on three key uncertainties that, if known, should give us more clarity about the direction of markets. As some of these unknowns are coming into view, each of them creates unknowns of their own.
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White papersFocus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario
If we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a return to pre-crisis levels. In Italy, the government is estimating an 8% GDP contraction this year, followed by a 4.7% YoY rebound in 2021. In our analysis, we consider two possible reference scenarios for 2020 growth: -8.0% YoY (as per the government scenario) and -12.0% YoY.
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White papersEmerging Markets Charts & Views - Market dislocation creating long-term opportunities
Two major drivers are shaping the landscape for EM countries: Covid-19 and oil dynamics. We are mindful that current events will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlook for EM this year, leading many countries into recession.
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White papersA letter from Asia
As the initial epicentre of the coronavirus, many lessons can be learnt from China: For example, the importance a swift government response (resting on lessons learnt during the SARS outbreak in 2002-2003) with total or partial lockdowns across many cities alongside other mobility restrictions and intensified health screening.
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White papersTransparency boots real estate investment in Asia Pacific
LaSalle Head of Asia Pacific Research Elysia Tse explains for increased transparency has been a boon for institutional investment into Asia.
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White papersAsset Class Return Forecasts - Q2 - 2020
In our latest analysis released at the beginning of the year, we had laid out our medium-term outlook as a correction of the business cycle, including an economic slowdown, yield curve inversion, a return to lower bound policy rates, and subdued inflation prints. The global shocks resulting from the eruption of the coronavirus pandemic have significantly altered the sequence of economic and financial phases, shortened the timeframe and expanded the scale of the ripple effect.
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White papersMarket weekly – Riding the digital transformation with US equities
Lockdowns around the world have boosted the uptake of new technologies, speeding us into an even more digital-centric future. US equity markets offer investors access to such disruptive technology. To hear more about the opportunities, Daniel Morris, our senior investment strategist, catches up with Pam Hegarty, senior portfolio manager and equity analyst for US equities in our Boston office.
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White papersThe day after #3 - ESG Resilience During the Covid Crisis: Is Green the New Gold?
Without a doubt, the coronavirus is shaking the financial industry like never before. This is not the first time the world has faced a pandemic of this scale, nor is the first time that policy makers, business leaders and pundits have asked: “Is it different this time around? Are we at a turning point?”
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White papersThe 20-Year Bond in a Brave New World
The US Government has responded to COVID-19 in unprecedented ways to produce a huge and rapid fiscal policy response. To fund this policy, the Treasury announced that it will issue over $800 billion in Treasury securities over the next three months. Including issuance completed in April, the issuance number rises to over $1 trillion. That is a massive issuance schedule. Here is what is upcoming.
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White papersThe Stock Market Is Not the Economy
COVID-19 has damaged a lot of things, including the link between the S&P 500 and the U.S. economy.
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White papersMarket Commentary - Swoosh Recovery vs. Liquidity Splash
The exit from the lockdowns is proceeding cautiously. If anything the number of new cases globally has picked up over the past week, flirting with 100k on 15 May, the highest since 16 April (see our latest Facts and Figures, including new modelling). Scientists keep warning about the risk of relaxing social distancing too quickly. In the meantime the global economy struggles – we slightly cut our 2020 global growth forecast from -3.5% to -4%. The risks are skewed to the downside. The WHO reiterated concerns about a deadlier second wave this autumn and winter.
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White papersWhat We Already Know About The Recovery
And why bonds and stocks may not be pricing in such different outcomes.
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White papersWhy investors shouldn’t overlook UK social supported housing in the COVID-19 environment
We outline why we believe social supported housing in the UK offers investors much needed stability as the wider real estate market experiences falls in income and value due to Covid-19.
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Asset Manager NewsGlobal Sustainable Outcomes - News & Views Q1 2020
This quarter has marked the end of the longest bull market in history after a decade-long recovery since the global financial crisis. Entering 2020, nobody would have predicted the “black swan” event that was to come, providing a lethal shot to both the financial markets and global economies.
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Asset Manager NewsInvestment grade: how cheap are credit spreads?
Between the middle of February and late March there was one of the most severe periods of poor performance from risk markets in general, and from investment grade credit in particular. This was in response to the Covid-19 crisis and was marked by both the speed and extent of the spread widening
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Asset Manager NewsCovid-19: a pandemic with no precedent in a modern economy
The good-news stories and optimism of three months ago have been consigned to the bin, as the virus, lockdowns and economic bailouts take centre stage.
