All Commentary articles – Page 138
-
White papersLogistics: ‘Last mile’ or further to run?
Following a decade of bumper demand and returns, many experts are questioning whether logistics real estate assets have reached their prime or whether they still have further to run. Vivienne Bolla argues the latter.
-
White papers(Weekly Pandemic) Market Commentary – Mind the curve
The virus - galloping, but less deadly. Covid is spreading like never before, the stats say. 19 June saw 177k new Covid cases, the highest ever. The 5-day rolling average, currently at 143k, is 50k higher than in mid-May. Arguably, the numbers today are likely more truthful than in the past, because there is more testing. In a freshly released Focal Point “Covid-19: proprietary models set to monitor pandemic evolution” (online on 22 June), we advocate basing cases estimates on deaths – a measure less affected by testing issues.
-
White papersThe Growth of Private Equity Secondaries
The Global Financial Crisis provided opportunities and growth in the Secondaries market as a means to gain liquidity, but is that the same case today as a result of COVID-19? Or has the investment landscape changed? Guests Tristram Perkins and Benjamin Perl discuss what some of the key differences and similarities might be, along with how the Secondaries market has developed before the pandemic hit, as investors are adjusting to the “new normal” in today’s market.
-
Asset Manager NewsProsperity and preservation: the aim of active ownership
The exogeneous shock of the coronavirus pandemic has confirmed the importance of sustainability. We have absolute conviction that we must continue to act as owners of companies and help shape the narrative of the role of sustainability in a post-coronavirus world.
-
White papersReal Estate Outlook, Switzerland
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the economic outlook abruptly. Switzerland is set to experience a sharp GDP contraction in 2020, although economic activity is slowly recovering thanks to the progressive lifting of the soft lockdown measures. This situation supports a continued extreme low interest rate environment, which contributes to the attractiveness of Swiss real estate investments.
-
White papers2020 Isn’t Only Hindsight
By any conventional measure, the current recovery and expansion phase of the U.S. business cycle is the longest in the nation’s history. This naturally leads many to conclude that the economy, and by extension property markets, must be “late cycle” with an inevitable downturn just around the corner.
-
White papersU.S. Economic & Property Market Perspective Q1 2020
At the beginning of March, the U.S. economy was on pace to record another quarter of moderate but positive growth. Total employment had increased by 214,000 in January and 275,000 in February and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s real-time model (GDPNow) suggested annualized real GDP growth of 2.5% for the quarter. Within a span of just a few weeks, that assessment was radically upended as more than 30 million American workers lost their jobs in the rapid shutdown of wide swathes of the U.S. economy in response to the equally rapid spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19).
-
White papers2020 Global Strategy Perspective
As we start the third decade of the 21st century, it is an opportune time to take stock of real estate markets around the world. Despite the aftershocks of the global financial crisis, most investors have taken advantage of real estate opportunities outside their home markets. At AEW we have been working with international investors for nearly 40 years. In this report, we share our perspective on global investment markets, considering both global trends and occupier market trends.
-
White papersAsia Pacific Market Perspective Q1 2020
Operating conditions and the investment outlook in the Asia Pacific region shifted dramatically over the first quarter. The market had severe restrictions imposed on it to bring the public health crisis of COVID-19 under control, and governments and central banks announced very large support packages to offset the costs of these restrictions. The current projections are for a sharp, but short-lived contraction in economic activity, concentrated in the first half of this year, with a resultant recovery in the second half of 2020 and rebound in 2021. The unknown part of this outlook is the effect any COVID-19 reoccurrence may have, and how disruptive that could be.
-
White papersConsumers Are Betting On Herd Immunity
There is much optimism in a rebound in PMIs, but the fear of a second wave is in the back of many minds. Trade deals continue to come about.
-
White papersWeekly investment update – 17 June 2020
Emerging market hot spots struggle with virus / worrying trends in US / China fights an outbreak / Fed signals lower for longer despite economic uptick / markets adopt a brighter tone
-
White papersUK Social Supported Housing
A highly resilient, income-focused sector in an uncertain environment?
-
White papersCommodities in the wake of the pandemic: unlocking potential
Like all asset classes, commodities were severely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. As the crisis starts to recede and we move into the second half of 2020, now is the moment to take stock.
-
White papersMajor Shifts In Odce Sector Allocations Underway
Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, commercial real estate (CRE) demand and supply fundamentals were largely healthy in most markets and property sectors. The U.S. labor market and household formation had been very strong, driving robust demand for commercial space. Furthermore, relatively conservative underwriting and rising construction costs constrained new supply. In recent months, however, the global pandemic has led to a rapid downturn of the U.S economy, negatively impacting different industries and real estate dynamics.
-
White papersThe day after #7 - Climate change post Covid-19: A crisis at a crossroad
This year was supposed to be the year in the fight against climate change. Instead, 2020 has become the year of the coronavirus pandemic.
-
White papersBig oil – Staring down the barrel of an uncertain future
After three months of convulsions, the global oil industry appears to be stuck between a rock and a hard place when contemplating its future. Oil majors need to decide how best to tackle the factors that are raising an increasingly large question mark over their business model, explains Mark Lewis, Global Head of Sustainability Research at BNP Paribas Asset Management, in a new briefing paper.
-
White papersMarket weekly – Factor investing in equities – Lessons from the COVID-19 crisis (podcast)
Our multi-factor equity strategy seeks to tilt portfolios towards value, quality, low volatility and momentum stocks. During the recent rally in developed equity markets, exposures to these factors did not perform as might have been expected. In this week’s podcast, Grégory Taieb, quantitative investment specialist, and Laurent Lagarde, head of quantitative equity portfolio management, talk to Daniel Morris, senior market strategist, about the particularities of the recent rally and the outlook for factor investing in equities.
-
White papersThe Great Instability: Five lessons from COVID-19
The Great Instability: this is the label we chose last year to describe the fragile nature of the global economy and wider society, looking at 2020. It’s a label inspired by the contrast with a very different period known as the Great Stability – a dim but not so distant past, in the years leading up to the Great Financial Crisis, when it appeared as if the economy had achieved its state of ‘nirvana’. A global pandemic was not exactly front of mind when we settled on ‘The Great Instability’; still, it fits quite neatly into the overarching concept. After all, the world was already, and will remain, a volatile place.
-
White papers5G Dis-Connectivity
Geopolitical and trade tensions may fragment the 5G supply chain, but while that could make the theme more complex to navigate, it is unlikely to diminish its importance.
-
White papersMarket Commentary – Financial repression and the sovereign carry trade
Chinese data on Monday may vindicate hopes of a V-shape recovery. Yet we warn against extrapolating 1/ an early bounce driven by pent-up demand and 2/ Chinese trends to the broader economy. The ‘swoosh’ scenario for the global economy remains very credible.
