All Government Bonds articles
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PodcastOuterblue Talks Research - US fixed income - Early pain, later gain?
Less than 2 months back in the White House, US president Donald Trump has packed in a great deal; Shifts in policy, tariffs, federal employment, not to mention a huge change in approach to foreign policy. This month, Swaha Pattanaik sits down with Jonathan Duensing, Head of Fixed Income at Amundi US, and Mahmood Pradhan, Head of Global Macro with the Amundi Investment Institute, to try to guide us through the present uncertainty in the markets.
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White papersRethinking the Stock-Bond Correlation
The correlation between stocks and bonds has been a prominent topic of discussion over the past 5 years, particularly due to the resurgence of inflation risks. Many portfolio managers, who had long assumed that the stock-bond correlation was negative, were surprised when this relationship turned strongly positive in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis. This article examines the stock-bond correlation from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective.
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White papersTariffs and European news fuel volatility
“Rising concerns for US growth amid high policy uncertainty have triggered a strong rotation outside of the US mega caps.”
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White papersGerman fiscal expansion – Whatever it takes!
On 4 March, Friedrich Merz, Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, proposed a constitutional amendment that would pave the way for an extensive programme to boost defence spending and overhaul German infrastructure. By employing, in English, the phrase “whatever-it-takes”, Merz made sure there was no doubt about the scale of his intentions.
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White papersBond markets in focus amid growth concerns
“With tariff uncertainty affecting market expectations and consumer confidence, bonds are back as a key diversification* engine for global investors.”
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White papers2025 Emerging market debt outlook: Stick to income and relative value in a disruptive year
As 2024 is now behind us, we are reflecting on a year of political and geopolitical upheaval which culminated in the election of Donald Trump in the U.S., whose disruptive agenda hangs over emerging market (EM) investors’ heads. In this outlook, we flesh out our current view of the world, as seen from an EM lens, and highlight a few key investment themes.
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White papersNavigating interest rate uncertainty on the bond market during a second Trump term
US bond rates are a significant risk driver for institutional investors such as pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds who typically invest roughly 30% of their allocations into bonds and other fixed income classes. With Trump’s election win, we must navigate the potential impacts of his policies on the bond market. Given the contradictory nature of his suggested policies, we see the potential for a new level of interest rate uncertainty driven by a mix of inflationary and growth pressures causing increased volatility in the bond market.
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White papersThe Vulnerability—and Potential Value Creation—in UK Assets
Recent Gilt yield spikes highlight UK’s fiscal vulnerability, driven by stagflationary risks and global shifts in investor sentiment.
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White papersWill US bond markets outperform Europe and China in 2025?
This quarter’s summary of what to look out for in fixed income
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White papersInflation in focus ahead of Trump’s inauguration
“In the Trump 2.0 administration, the fiscal outlook and inflation expectations will be the main market themes to watch.”
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White papersRelative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q1 2025
Although the uncertainty of the U.S. election is over, uncertainty regarding the prioritization of announced policies creates a broader range of possible outcomes in 2025. An anticipated deregulatory environment should be positive for overall growth, while tariffs could work against global economic activity and temporarily boost inflation pressures.
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White papersBuying bonds: January macro and asset class views
2024 marked the fourth consecutive year of rising US yields, for the first time since the early 80’s. We have been patient in recent years going overweight duration in our multi-asset portfolios as we have persistently viewed the risks to US nominal growth relative to consensus expectations as skewed to the upside.
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White papersFirst Quarter 2025 Market Outlook
PGIM Fixed Income’s First Quarter 2025 Market Outlook.
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White papersBond yields on the rise
Bond yields started the year with strong upward moves, and reached close to the highs seen in April last year. This latest upward trend, which has been evident from September amid Trump’s election campaign and his eventual victory, has been partly driven by resilience in the US economy.
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White papersECB: We’re not a “Jack of all Trades”
The ECB delivered another 25 bps cut at its December 2024 meeting, bringing the policy rate to 3.0% as inflation continues tracking to their 2% target, down from near 10% just over two years ago.
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White papersAllview: Market Risk Monitor - December 2024
Each month, Allspring’s Investment Analytics team assembles a top 10 list of market risks that it believes have the potential to influence investment portfolios.
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White papersWhat’s next for France
The French fiscal situation deteriorated post-Covid. Public debt as a percentage of GDP now surpasses levels in the Euro Area, including Germany and Spain, even if it remains lower than the ratio in the US (which exceeds 120%).
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White papersThe Head of Macro Research view: Trump-starting the global economy
Two major policy uncertainties lie at the heart of the global outlook for 2025 and 2026. The first is the extent that US President-elect Donald Trump translates campaign promises into policy. Our view is that he will not fully deliver what he suggested on tariff increases, migrant deportations or fiscal loosening. However, we anticipate enough delivery to materially impact US growth as these policies bite into 2026.
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White papersInvestment Grade Spreads: Tighter for Longer?
Spreads on IG bonds have been tight for most of the past year. Are we finally going to see a widening out of spreads? Even though spreads have been unusually tight for a long time, we expect that spreads will remain tight until markets become convinced about either a recession or a soft landing before we see material and persistent spread widening.
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White papersThe extraordinary US cycle is becoming more balanced
“Progressively softer labour market conditions and positive inflation developments support gradual rate cuts, allowing the Fed to bring policy rates closer to neutral levels.”
