All Government Bonds articles
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White papersInflation in focus ahead of Trump’s inauguration
“In the Trump 2.0 administration, the fiscal outlook and inflation expectations will be the main market themes to watch.”
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White papersRelative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q1 2025
Although the uncertainty of the U.S. election is over, uncertainty regarding the prioritization of announced policies creates a broader range of possible outcomes in 2025. An anticipated deregulatory environment should be positive for overall growth, while tariffs could work against global economic activity and temporarily boost inflation pressures.
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White papersBond yields on the rise
Bond yields started the year with strong upward moves, and reached close to the highs seen in April last year. This latest upward trend, which has been evident from September amid Trump’s election campaign and his eventual victory, has been partly driven by resilience in the US economy.
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White papersECB: We’re not a “Jack of all Trades”
The ECB delivered another 25 bps cut at its December 2024 meeting, bringing the policy rate to 3.0% as inflation continues tracking to their 2% target, down from near 10% just over two years ago.
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White papersAllview: Market Risk Monitor - December 2024
Each month, Allspring’s Investment Analytics team assembles a top 10 list of market risks that it believes have the potential to influence investment portfolios.
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White papersWhat’s next for France
The French fiscal situation deteriorated post-Covid. Public debt as a percentage of GDP now surpasses levels in the Euro Area, including Germany and Spain, even if it remains lower than the ratio in the US (which exceeds 120%).
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White papersThe Head of Macro Research view: Trump-starting the global economy
Two major policy uncertainties lie at the heart of the global outlook for 2025 and 2026. The first is the extent that US President-elect Donald Trump translates campaign promises into policy. Our view is that he will not fully deliver what he suggested on tariff increases, migrant deportations or fiscal loosening. However, we anticipate enough delivery to materially impact US growth as these policies bite into 2026.
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White papersInvestment Grade Spreads: Tighter for Longer?
Spreads on IG bonds have been tight for most of the past year. Are we finally going to see a widening out of spreads? Even though spreads have been unusually tight for a long time, we expect that spreads will remain tight until markets become convinced about either a recession or a soft landing before we see material and persistent spread widening.
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White papersThe extraordinary US cycle is becoming more balanced
“Progressively softer labour market conditions and positive inflation developments support gradual rate cuts, allowing the Fed to bring policy rates closer to neutral levels.”
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White papersBond yields in Trump 2.0
“The Federal Reserve is continuing its cut-rate path, but it will be increasingly vigilant towards any inflation risks. We expect volatility in bond markets to persist.”
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White papersInsurance Fixed Income at the Top of the Cycle
How a fixed income portfolio split between core government bonds and high quality private assets can both augment yield and build strength for an economic slowdown.
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White papersThe Fed’s Drive Toward Neutral: Slowed, but Not Stopped
The Federal Reserve stayed the course with a 25 bp rate cut on Thursday and a firm reiteration of its intention to remain on a data-determined path towards a neutral rate.
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White papersUS soft landing on track
“Robust consumption and government spending have supported US economic activity recently, but we see a mild deceleration in growth amid a rebalancing in US labour markets.”
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White papersBeware of Buying the Dip in Bonds
Government bonds have sold off rapidly; here’s why we don’t think it’s time to buy back in.
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White papersBudget 2024: public debt switch likely to increase LGPS scrutiny and focus investment time horizons
During yesterday’s Budget announcement the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, confirmed expectations that she will switch to measuring public debt using Public Sector Net Financial Liabilities (PSNFL).
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White papersCan Beijing do enough to maintain the rally?
The Chinese government has prioritised rebooting the country’s flagging economy and unveiled a dramatic stimulus package last month. But initial investor enthusiasm may be tapering off amid follow-up announcements that have been short on specifics.
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White papersEconomic nationalism will present a constant challenge for investors
To prepare a presentation on what has changed for long-term investors during the past decade I dug out my notes from 2014. The results were sobering.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook 4Q 2024
With the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut, we anticipate broad easing by central banks over the next year across the developed world. However, some caution may be warranted on duration, as markets may be overly optimistic about the initial pace of reductions. Meanwhile still sturdy, if softening, economic conditions along with strong investor demand have contributed to narrow corporate credit spreads, reinforcing the value of a quality emphasis and drawing on yield and price opportunities wherever they emerge.
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White papersEmerging Divergence
While central banks are all cutting, rate trajectories for the US, Europe and the UK seem contrary to underlying economic conditions. Correlations are high between Treasuries and European government bonds, but intra-European opportunities are emerging.
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White papersAll eyes on inflation
“We believe the Federal Reserve will weigh the inflation numbers in the context of the weakening labour markets. We expect the Fed to continue to ease monetary policy.”
