All Government Bonds articles
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White papersU.S. Rates: How Low Can They Go?
A more dovish rate cut than anticipated by the U.S. Federal Reserve has created an interesting setup for fixed income markets next year. The focus on its independence adds another dimension.
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White papersEuropean bonds in 2026 and beyond: strong supply, strong demand
European government bond indices are likely to expand in 2026 due to high fiscal deficits in the largest European economies and a continued trend towards more euro-denominated public issuance. Demand from the ECB will shrink further due to quantitative tightening. However, repatriation from European investors and more purchases by insurers and pension funds could be enough to meet the increased suppl
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - December 2025
Topic of the month - Germany: from crisis comes opportunity
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White papersJapan bond yields on the rise
Yields on Japan’s two‑year bonds touched their highest levels since 2007, on market expectations of a rate hike later this month. While the short end (2‑year) is more sensitive to policy‑rate moves, yields on 10‑year and 30‑year bonds have also risen amid concerns about the government’s expansionary fiscal policy and high public‑debt levels.
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White papersFixed Income Outlook: Why flexibility will be key for fixed income investors in 2026
Despite no shortage of challenges and obstacles, returns across fixed income asset classes have been largely positive in 2025, with income levels a major contributing factor.
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White papersFixed income in the new policy order
We see a continuation of the diversification trend seen in 2026. Fixed income investors may be underestimating the risk stemming from US expansionary fiscal policy. We see opportunities in inflation break-evens, and yield curve steepening later in the year. Quality credit becomes a core allocation for fixed income investors, thanks to sound fundamentals and a better risk-return profile compared to Treasuries. European bonds remain a key call for 2026, with a focus on peripheral bonds and investment grade credit, particularly in financials.
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White papersAhead of the Curve: Economic convergence and what it could mean for bond investors
This year has seen huge shifts in the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. Principles such as free trade, globalisation and central bank independence that have underpinned the global economy for decades are being challenged. Despite this, credit spreads are at all-time tight levels and equity markets at historic highs.
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White papersThe Great Global Restructuring
How AI, trade, the US debt and dollar outlook are reshaping the investment landscape.
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White papersFrance’s fiscal reckoning: navigating opportunity amid political chaos
France, long regarded as an economic pillar of Europe, has found itself embroiled in political and financial turmoil in recent years. Multiple attempts to push for much-needed fiscal reforms has thrown the country’s leadership into disarray and intensified scrutiny of its mounting debt crisis. With elevated government bond yields and deteriorating credit ratings, investors and policymakers alike are grappling with the implications. How can bond investors navigate this volatility?
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White papersJapan’s Fiscal Reset: Responsible Expansion in a New Political Era
As policy priorities evolve, Japan’s focus on “responsible fiscal expansion” could reshape bond dynamics.
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White papersUS debt and dollar dominance
The US has long defied conventional economic wisdom by sustaining persistent fiscal and trade deficits without triggering a dramatic sell-off in government bonds or a collapse in its currency.
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White papersTaxable municipal bonds: room to run
Taxable municipal bonds returned 6.43% year-to-date through Q3 2025, marking the best start since 2020, with spread advantages over similarly rated corporates providing runway for additional gains despite slight underperformance. Strong fundamentals—tax revenues and reserves at all-time highs—combine with compelling entry points from year-to-date underperformance, seasonal upticks in new issuance creating buying opportunities, and widening performance gaps between credits that make disciplined security selection increasingly critical for active managers seeking optimal returns.
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White papersWeak UK economic outlook bolsters money market flows
Despite falling rates, flows into sterling-denominated money market assets have remained steady and hit record highs this year.
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White papersCan Europe step into Uncle Sam’s shoes?
Europe has always been seen as the little cousin to the US. This year, however, Europe’s profile from an investment perspective has grown as the US’ reputation of a choice of stability and reliability has taken a nose-dive.
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White papersFrench markets in a relief rally
French Prime Minister (PM) Lecornu secured wins in two no-confidence motions in the National Assembly, triggering a rally in French stocks, and paving the way for additional discussions over a draft budget. Markets welcomed the news that the country, for the time being, has avoided snap elections and the political uncertainty has eased.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - October 2025
US bond yields have declined over the past couple of months, and gold has touched records levels. Global and US equities have also reached new highs on the back of expectations of continued economic strength in the US, the monetary easing cycle, earnings resilience, and AI-led momentum. We see an inherent contradiction here, but agree with the monetary easing aspect. The contradiction arises from the view that if the Fed implements rate cuts mainly to address a slowing economy, then the effects of a slowing economy should already be evident in weak labour markets, consumption, and eventually in corporate earnings.
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White papersThe end of exorbitant privilege? EMD report Q3 2025
Fast-developing economies are transforming global markets.
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White papersECB strategy review: The investment implications
A cursory glance at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2025 monetary policy strategy assessment shows no major changes to its last review four years earlier – something which should, in the main, comfort investors. However, a deeper dive into the document and the surrounding macroeconomic backdrop reveals it to be - in our view at least - an ECB strategy policy overhaul, rather than a technical fine-tuning exercise.
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White papersECB treads cautiously
The ECB kept policy rates unchanged at its September meeting, emphasising a data-dependent approach before deciding on further rate cuts.
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White papersBond markets fret over rising budget deficits
An uncertain economic backdrop continues to push up long-term government bond yields in comparison to short-term rates.
