All Government Bonds articles
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White papersAllview: Market Risk Monitor - December 2024
Each month, Allspring’s Investment Analytics team assembles a top 10 list of market risks that it believes have the potential to influence investment portfolios.
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White papersWhat’s next for France
The French fiscal situation deteriorated post-Covid. Public debt as a percentage of GDP now surpasses levels in the Euro Area, including Germany and Spain, even if it remains lower than the ratio in the US (which exceeds 120%).
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White papersThe Head of Macro Research view: Trump-starting the global economy
Two major policy uncertainties lie at the heart of the global outlook for 2025 and 2026. The first is the extent that US President-elect Donald Trump translates campaign promises into policy. Our view is that he will not fully deliver what he suggested on tariff increases, migrant deportations or fiscal loosening. However, we anticipate enough delivery to materially impact US growth as these policies bite into 2026.
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White papersInvestment Grade Spreads: Tighter for Longer?
Spreads on IG bonds have been tight for most of the past year. Are we finally going to see a widening out of spreads? Even though spreads have been unusually tight for a long time, we expect that spreads will remain tight until markets become convinced about either a recession or a soft landing before we see material and persistent spread widening.
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White papersThe extraordinary US cycle is becoming more balanced
“Progressively softer labour market conditions and positive inflation developments support gradual rate cuts, allowing the Fed to bring policy rates closer to neutral levels.”
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White papersBond yields in Trump 2.0
“The Federal Reserve is continuing its cut-rate path, but it will be increasingly vigilant towards any inflation risks. We expect volatility in bond markets to persist.”
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White papersInsurance Fixed Income at the Top of the Cycle
How a fixed income portfolio split between core government bonds and high quality private assets can both augment yield and build strength for an economic slowdown.
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White papersUS soft landing on track
“Robust consumption and government spending have supported US economic activity recently, but we see a mild deceleration in growth amid a rebalancing in US labour markets.”
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White papersBeware of Buying the Dip in Bonds
Government bonds have sold off rapidly; here’s why we don’t think it’s time to buy back in.
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White papersBudget 2024: public debt switch likely to increase LGPS scrutiny and focus investment time horizons
During yesterday’s Budget announcement the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, confirmed expectations that she will switch to measuring public debt using Public Sector Net Financial Liabilities (PSNFL).
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White papersCan Beijing do enough to maintain the rally?
The Chinese government has prioritised rebooting the country’s flagging economy and unveiled a dramatic stimulus package last month. But initial investor enthusiasm may be tapering off amid follow-up announcements that have been short on specifics.
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White papersEconomic nationalism will present a constant challenge for investors
To prepare a presentation on what has changed for long-term investors during the past decade I dug out my notes from 2014. The results were sobering.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook 4Q 2024
With the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut, we anticipate broad easing by central banks over the next year across the developed world. However, some caution may be warranted on duration, as markets may be overly optimistic about the initial pace of reductions. Meanwhile still sturdy, if softening, economic conditions along with strong investor demand have contributed to narrow corporate credit spreads, reinforcing the value of a quality emphasis and drawing on yield and price opportunities wherever they emerge.
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White papersEmerging Divergence
While central banks are all cutting, rate trajectories for the US, Europe and the UK seem contrary to underlying economic conditions. Correlations are high between Treasuries and European government bonds, but intra-European opportunities are emerging.
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White papersAll eyes on inflation
“We believe the Federal Reserve will weigh the inflation numbers in the context of the weakening labour markets. We expect the Fed to continue to ease monetary policy.”
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BlogThe Impact of the U.S. Election on the Muni Market
This blog post covers key questions about the potential impact of the U.S. elections on the municipal bond market.
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White papersChina: Is this the “whatever it takes” moment?
China’s recent stimulus measures, including monetary easing and a massive fiscal pledge, have sparked a sharp rally in equities, particularly in real estate and consumer staples. While market sentiment has improved, the long-term impact will hinge on the actual scale and execution of fiscal policy. Investors are cautiously optimistic, but much depends on how effectively China targets its property sector and broader economy.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - October 2024
Capital markets whipsawed between a weakening US labour market and hopes that the Fed would successfully steer the economy towards a soft landing. Markets are optimistically interpreting the latest policy action, which could potentially boost consumption and investment. The other narrative is that the Fed would not have implemented a big cut without having apprehensions on the economic front.
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White papersThe bullish case for European fixed income
Mauro Valle, Head of Fixed Income at Generali Asset Management, explains why he expects duration to maintain its bullish momentum for the final months of 2024, and why the short- to medium-term part of the yield curve should be a sweet spot for bond investors.
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White papers50bps and the bond curve…
Simon Prior, Fixed Income Fund Manager, discusses the impact of the recent rate cut on both the fixed income and the broader market.
