All Commentary articles – Page 148
-
White papersFebruary 2020 - European loan market - review and outlook
European loans returned 5.0% in euro terms in 2019, making another strong year and the asset class’s best performance in 2016. In tandem with wider markets, the year was not without its wobbles, most markedly in October, but all quarters delivered positive returns and loans found their footing in the fourth quarter, as economic and political concerns dissipated and as progress towards a US-China trade deals was made, just as a decisive result in the UK elections inspired confidence in a clearer position on Brexit.
-
White papersExports’ dependence to China and Asia of more than 70 countries
The Coronavirus is expected to have a significant impact at least on China Q1 GDP figure. This will affect many countries firstly through exports to China (including tourism). As shown in charts below and as expected, China’s share in total of exports is high for most of Asian countries particularly for South Korea, Hong Kong and Mongolia. Including Japan, share of exports to Asia for Asian countries is above 50% except for China, India, Sri Lanka and Kazakhstan.
-
White papersFull Economic Implications of Coronavirus Largely Unknown
The impacts of coronavirus could be more detrimental—and last longer—than many observers previously thought.
-
-
White papersThe Circular Edition 1, 2020: keeping you in the sustainability loop
It’s a new year and a new opportunity to shine a light on sustainability. We’ve summed up our recent insights on environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing to bring you the latest edition of The Circular.
-
White papersSeeking riches with the tide far out: 360°, Q1 2020
What is our current view of fixed-income markets? And where do we see the best relative value? In our latest edition of 360°, Andrew ‘Jacko’ Jackson, Head of Fixed Income, and his team of specialist investors considers the areas that have the potential to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns.
-
White papersCwtch: Has capitalism gone cuddly?
In the first of a new editorial series, Link, AIQ brings together people from across Aviva Investors to debate topical themes. Mirza Baig and Stephanie Niven consider whether CEO claims about running businesses for multiple stakeholders rather than shareholders alone is a grand idea or just plain grandstanding.
-
White papersAmplified: Fixed income markets in the new decade
In this episode of Amplified, Eoin Murray, Head of Investment and Andrey Kuznetsov, Senior Credit Portfolio Manager, take a look at the new decade for fixed income markets.
-
White papersNew institutional investor insights - 20/20 vision: a clearer path for growth
Diversification and selectivity will become ever more important in 2020 and beyond, especially as we think yields will remain low, returns will be tough to come by and volatility may rise. That means getting more exposure to more opportunities and more risks across asset classes, while remaining nimble.
-
White papersRevisiting China’s Equity Markets as Coronavirus Spreads
Growing fears about the coronavirus have hit Chinese stocks. While markets will remain unstable until China gets the outbreak under control, equity investors should revisit lessons from previous epidemics and consider the potential longer-term effects of the current crisis.
-
White papersMulti-asset allocation views: Why the bull run in global equities could continue
Sunil Krishnan discusses the conditions for a continued rise in global equities, the potential of Japanese and US equities to outperform from a regional perspective, and some attractive features of emerging markets – particularly Brazil – which may have been overlooked.
-
White papersWhy solar energy’s prospects look bright for 2020
As the long-term transition towards renewable energy continues apace, we see a sunny outlook this year for solar energy companies, as well as onshore wind and energy storage.
-
White papersMulti-Asset Allocation Views: Uncertainty Tempers Our Enthusiasm
Our view of global growth has been getting more optimistic over the last few months as signs of stabilization have appeared in many economies. Areas that were notably weak, such as manufacturing in Germany, have turned up somewhat (see Exhibit 1). This has been supported by an easing of global trade tensions—though we are not complacent in seeing that the underlying issues are yet to be resolved—and by central banks that seem willing to underwrite a continued period of relative stability.
-
White papersFixed Income Outlook: 2020 Will the Economy survive the politics?
New year, new decade—we’re off to the races. None of the doom-and-gloom predictions materialized in 2019. Trade tensions did not spiral into out-of-control trade wars, new tariffs did not have a major macroeconomic impact, the US economic expansion did not halt and China’s economy did not stall. The lesson learned is that last year, too many people worried too much about the wrong things.
-
White papersCoronavirus & The Next Global Financial Crisis
The actions, both real and perceived, taken by China’s government to contain the coronavirus should serve as an indication of how authorities there would (or wouldn’t) respond to a future financial crisis and contagion of a different kind in the global economy.
-
White papersAsset classes views: Detecting Tipping Points
The report highlights the causal relationships between macro-economic factors and long term trends in asset prices, incorporating the latest discussions and analysis and drawing on insights from Amundi’s industry experts. We confirm our central scenario of subdued growth and inflation on a global scale, albeit leading to even lower returns due to complications from late-cycle investing. Recovery is likely as rates and profits normalise while central bank authorities stock up on the ammunitions needed to face further cyclical downturns.
-
White papersAnother Breakthrough Year for China Bonds
The market made it into global indices but also broke records for defaults in 2019 and is facing uncertainty from the coronavirus: we take stock for 2020.
-
White papersInvestment Phazer Update: downward trend is confirmed
While in the short term we do expect some temporary relief coming from positive economic surprises and supportive news on the trade front (should coronavirus impact be limited), on a medium-term horizon our economic scenario confirms the fragility of the profit cycle.
-
White papersPrivate assets in 2020: What next?
Interest in private assets will continue to grow over the next year. Our experts across private equity, private debt, real estate, infrastructure and insurance-linked securities, highlight what to expect.
-
White papersOpportunity exists for US, UK and Canadian pension funds who are prepared to de-risk
We recently witnessed the end of a very important moment, when US, UK and Canadian pension funds were simultaneously at the best funded status they had experienced in ten years. At the same time, all three markets had new entrants in pension insurance and reinsurance with ample insurer capacity, vibrant price competition and attractive buy-in and buy-out pricing. Additionally, seven years of lower than expected longevity improvements meant the lowest liability pricing from insurers and reinsurers in over ten years.
