All Commentary articles – Page 148
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White papersUK Real Estate Market Outlook - August 2019
Despite the ongoing Brexit-related uncertainty and political upheaval, we expect property income streams to remain mostly resilient. Occupiers are still taking a ‘business as usual’ approach and, while cautious, investors continue to pile into alternatives over mainstream property.
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White papers2019 midyear outlook - Expect a tougher climb
Trade and other geopolitical issues are heating up. Economic growth is looking more uncertain and market volatility rising. Expect a tougher climb in 2019.
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White papersWhat do negative interest rates mean for investors?
With interest rates falling sharply, even more sectors of the global bond market are trading in negative territory. We explain what this means for investors, offer perspective on where markets may be headed and suggest strategies to position portfolios to preserve income and protect against losses.
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White papersMidyear Bond Outlook: Making Sense of Conflicting Signals
The first half of 2019 was kind to financial markets. Will the good times keep on rolling? In our view, that will depend on whether loosening monetary policy is still an effective way to boost growth.
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White papersThe FED and the ECB have shifted to an easing mode. The question now is for how long can accomodative monetary policy support growth?
The ECB and the Fed have shifted towards a more dovish stance because of concerns about global growth, the persistence of significant risks and the continued weakness of inflation
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White papersStrategic Relative Value Q2 2019
A quarterly look at how macro events are driving relative value around the globe.
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White papersG20: Market Relief, Eyes Now On Central Bank's Execution
The worst case scenario of further trade escalation has been averted. The G20 meeting over the weekend resumed the negotiations between China and US on trade, after the tariffs increase in May on$200bn of Chinese products, and the consequent Chinese retaliation,which both put financial markets under pressure and increased downside risk to the economic outlook.
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White papersEconomic Outlook: Japanification
Political risk is ‘trumping’ economics, with populism, disparate prosperity, and stirrings that globalisation needs to reverse all offering a paradigm shift that may prove as forceful as the fall of communism in 1989, and even the New World Order after 1945.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - July 2019
The journey from market complacency to awareness of fragilities is in full swing, and the market correction in May is part of that, as is the recent recovery fuelled by dovish Central Banks (CB). Aware investors should recognise that the late cycle phase and mature market trends require improving fundamentals and positive political events to deliver sustainable uptrends in risk assets.
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White papersInvesting in China: Tapping into Long-Term Opportunities
Ghadir Cooper, Global Head of Equities, recently joined a round table with Pensions & Investments to discuss the opportunity set in China. Despite slowed growth and trade concerns, she believes there are several reasons why investors should remain optimistic.
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White papersWhere the Dry Powder Goes Next
Stuart Mathieson and Bryan High, portfolio managers for the Global Special Situations strategy, discuss the outlook for distressed debt investing—and explain how they’re finding opportunities throughout the cycle.
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White papersEuropean elections: not a game changer, opportunities from divergences
The results are broadly in line with what opinion polls had indicated, although with a slight “pro-institution” surprise. Key takeaways are, first, a decline in the votes for the two large political groups which are the social-democrats and the Christian-democrats or moderate right; these two parties had, since 1979, commanded a combined majority in the European Parliament, and this is now over.
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White papersSDG Taxonomy
We believe that companies which contribute to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are capable of creating positive social and environmental impacts – and are also exposed to the drivers of future growth. We created the Hermes SDG Taxonomy to find investment opportunities directly connected to the goals by identifying impactful businesses poised to be the growth champions of tomorrow.
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White papersSpain: Forming A Coalition Will Take Time, But The Picture Looks Benign For Investors
The outcome: The ruling Socialist Party of Pedro Sánchez came first, however without an absolute majority in Parliament. The new, far-right, VOX party also entered Parliament.
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White papersRethinking the Fed’s policy framework
The dovish turn in March 2019 is unprecedented and inconsistent with the Fed’s remit.
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White papersIs Inflation Definitely Dead Or Simply Dormant? Consequences For Central Banks
Inflation never disappears completely. In history, there have been periods when it was dormant, but revivals have always been painful. What is striking at present is the inability of some countries to boost inflation despite low rates, liquidity injection programs… The BoJ and the ECB have made the bet (losing for the moment) that a ultra-accommodative monetary policy would quickly translate into a rise in inflation rates, while the Fed has opted for a “friendly” normalization of its monetary policy, helped in this, it must be said, by a fiscal and tax policy that has never been as pro-cyclical as in recent years (the Trump years).
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - May 2019
Equity markets have remained buoyant in recent weeks: the S&P 500 is trending towards an all-time high, the European equity market (STOXX 600) is close to last year’s peak and the performances of emerging markets have also been very strong.
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White papersItaly: no short-term confrontation with the EU, but uncertainty in the mid-term.
In the new forecasts for the 2020 budget and beyond from the Italian government (from the latest economic blueprint, of 9 April: “The Stability and Growth Path, SGP”), its economic projections come much closer to consensus than previous ones, pointing to weaker GDP growth.
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White papersPolitical Brinkmanship
Could U.S. political brinkmanship cause a government shutdown and technical debt default, putting the economy at risk in the fourth quarter?
