All Commentary articles – Page 151
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White papersItalian budget proposal under scrutiny
The key points of the budget law. The Italian Government negatively surprised the markets by announcing a substantially increased budget deficit target for 2019-2021 to 2.4% in a move that could undermine the potential to reduce the Italian debt burden (130% of GDP) in the coming years.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views: October 2018
The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year. While the ongoing US/China trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, the sequence of country-specific stories (Turkey, Argentina and South Africa) contributed to the almost indiscriminate repricing of EM assets, starting with plummeting EM currencies.
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White papersRobust asset allocation for robo-advisors
In the last few years, the financial advisory industry has been impacted by the emergence of digitalization and roboadvisors. This phenomenon affects major financial services, including wealth management, employee savings plans, asset managers, private banks, pension funds, banking services, etc.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy: September 2018
Italian budget discussions are going to intensify as the 27th of September approaches, date of publication of the document outlining the new budget law and when there should be more clarity on the key economic projections and deficit targets.
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White papersThe Next Recession: Three Critical Warning Signs
Is the U.S. heading toward a recession? We examine three critical warning signs and conclude that the next downturn could be different from the 2008 crisis.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views: September 2018
The year began with a synchronised global recovery as most economies benefited from a buoyant environment. The risk of inflation and CB mistakes dominated investors’ fears.
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White papers10 years after Lehman: A reality check for the future
It has been 10 years since the collapse of Lehman marked the beginning of the Great Recession, which threw the global economy into its deepest economic crisis since the 1930s.
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White papersExpect the bumpy ride to continue
Investors have been buffeted by a large number of negative headlines in 2018. We remain of the view that tightening global liquidity conditions are likely to exacerbate market volatility.
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White papersOutlook: The Global Emerging Markets Asset Class
2018 has been challenging for investors in Global Emerging Markets (GEM), with rising volatility in Forex, debt and equity prices causing negative returns. As the year has progressed, several themes have increasingly influenced sentiment and momentum.
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White papersAlternative Income Study 2018
Alternative income, real assets, private assets, illiquids: however they are described, the appeal of unlisted assets has grown significantly among European pension funds and insurers over the past decade.
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White papersCommercial Real Estate is a Clear Winner from Tax Reform
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is the most significant revision to the U.S. tax code since 1986. The reduction of the headline corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% makes the country significantly more competitive within the global marketplace and is already spurring domestic investment.
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White papersTurkey shakes summer thin markets, but contagion risk is contained
The domestic boom has been financed by private debt (mainly external debt). Well before this week’s crisis, Turkey was the most vulnerable country in our EM ranking
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White papersWhere will the next financial crisis come from? Are we ready to confront it?
The world is not yet completely out of the 2007- 2008 financial crisis, but the risk of a new crisis already arises. The theme of “regime shift” (volatility, interest rate, inflation, etc.) has resurfaced, which led to a marked correction in financial markets in January – February.
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White papersAsset Class Return Forecasts: Q3 2018
The current global expansion is set to run until 2020, with above potential growth in most countries in 2018 and 2019. However, the global GDP growth has started to decelerate and we expect it to slow further in 2020.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views: August 2018
Concerns about trade continue to take centre stage. While US assets have so far been resilient amid escalating protectionist rhetoric, markets targeted by tariffs are under pressure.
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White papers2018 Midyear Outlook: (Still) Risk On
Investors are facing some pretty big questions: How long will the economy continue to expand? How will rising interest rates affect my portfolio? Will volatility continue to climb? Do geopolitics (or even just political posturing) really matter?
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White papersEconomic Insights: June 2018
Stock market outlook: It may be a long, hot summer. Defensive stocks outperformed in June; investors may be starting to worry. We believe the robust U.S. and world economy should bring higher stock prices later this year.
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White papersInvestment Outlook for the Automotive Industry
We believe that today’s automotive industry—more than at any other time in its history—presents ample opportunities for active managers to uncover value for their investors.
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White papersThe living wage: towards better industry practices
The concept of living wage goes back to the early twentieth century, with the creation of the International Labour Organization in 1919. Subsequently, this concept was taken up several times in texts that played a structural role in labour law (Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Tripartite Declaration of Principles concerning Multinational Enterprises and Social Policy, and the ILO Declaration on Social Justice for a Fair Globalization).
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White papersChina Assets hit by trade talks: what expect from now
The US-China relationship appears to be deteriorating. US recently published a list of an additional $200bn of Chinese products subject to 10% tariff rates that will be put forward for the public hearing process by 30 August and could possibly be implemented in September.
