All Commentary articles – Page 153
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White papersThe inflation pendulum
It’s not good to have too much or too little inflation, but trying to get a huge pendulum the size of the US economy to settle in the middle is very difficult.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy: May 2018
While in 2017 financial markets largely ignored geopolitical risks, as they were more inclined to read the Goldilocks narrative, this mood now appears to be changing.
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White papersRussia: the fundamental story is intact, sanctions pose downside risks
The outlook for the Russian economy is positive, supported by expansive monetary policy, robust global trade and increasing oil price, even though the current context has deteriorated on the back of the last round of sanctions.
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White papersEconomic Insights: April 2018
What happens after a crisis? A return to normal. The world economic expansion, now two years old, remains intact, albeit with modest deceleration outside the United States.
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White papersFed Unwinding the Bernanke Experiments: Progress Report
The Fed will likely experience interesting challenges as it seeks to fashion a sustainable monetary policy that fits with the current economic climate and regulatory framework.
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White papersDB Pensions: Is Cash Flow–Driven Investing Right for Everyone?
UK defined benefit schemes are now mostly cash flow–negative.
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White papers
Trump's First Year in Review
In the Q3 2016 Market Commentary, “Post-Election US Outlook,” GTIS Research covered possible policy scenarios under the incoming Trump administration based on promises made during his presidential election campaign. At the time, we noted that the Trump platform offered little detail on policy, but we believed the administration would target five key areas: trade, immigration, taxes, infrastructure, and regulation.
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White papers5G in Latin America: A region’s global competitiveness at stake
So far, this series, 5G: The Foundation for a HyperConnected World, has examined the transformational technology that will redefine communications and have lasting impacts on several industries. Most recently we’ve explored 5G’s potential impact in Africa and how the continent could benefit from the technology.
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White papersPrivate assets outlook: a premium on innovation
As investors await the bottom of the interest rate cycle, we consider three key themes to look out for in private asset markets.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy: April 2018
The world is not yet fully out of the aftermath of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, when the question is already raised on the risk of another crisis.
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White papers5G in Africa: Connecting a continent ripe for innovation
So far, this series, 5G: The Foundation for a Hyper-Connected World, has examined the transformational technology that will redefine communications and have lasting impacts on several industries. Most recently we’ve explored 5G’s significance in Asia and what the future could hold.
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White papersEconomic Insights: March 2018
Economic decoupling begins: Growth should stay solidly above trend for 2018, but the world economy is no longer picking up steam.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views: April 2018
While still benefitting from a global synchronised growth outlook (likely peaking), financial markets are getting nervous, experiencing the fatigue of a more mature phase with new sources of volatility arising.
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White papersWill Geopolitics Fuel Global Volatility?
Economic trends clearly point toward higher inflation and interest rates ahead, which will likely make capital markets more volatile.
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White papersCan Investors Make Money in a US–China Trade War?
President Trump’s plans for tariffs on about $60 billion of Chinese imports have rattled equity markets.
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White papersTen key questions on recent US protectionist measures
On March 22, President Trump announced a new round of tariffs on around $50bln of Chinese imports (leaving Europe off for now) and China unveiled tariffs on $3bln of US imports. This adds to the measures announced on March 8, when US President Trump signed an order that imposes tariffs on imported steel (25%) and aluminum (10%), effective on March 23.
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White papersEconomic Insights: February 2018
What happens after growth peaks? A bit of deceleration. When things are so good they can’t get any better, they usually don’t. Still, the robust momentum should carry well into 2019.
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White papersDaisuke Nomoto: Japan - more tailwinds than headwinds for 2018
With GDP on a sustained growth track, supported by structural reforms and the Bank of Japan’s accommodative monetary policy, we maintain a positive outlook for the region.
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White papersDara J. White: Emerging Markets Outlook for 2018
Emerging markets have previously performed well in periods of rising rates, so while the macro dynamics from the US and elsewhere could be seen as a threat, they shouldn’t necessarily blow EMs off course.
