All Commentary articles – Page 158
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White papersBrexit extension will ease uncertainty looming on UK assets
Recent developments and next steps: Following the three-month extension granted to the UK by the EU on 28 October and the newly announced snap election, the most likely outcome is that the Withdrawal Agreement signed on 17 October between the United Kingdom and the EU will be ratified, leading to an orderly Brexit and the initiation of a transition period during which the United Kingdom will retain most of its access to the EU single market until at least end-2020. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is now greatly diminished.
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White papersStructured Credit: Engaging Risk Tactics
Deal flow remained steady in Q3, keeping primary market spreads range-bound. Against a backdrop of low global interest rates, we have seen increasing investor interest in European CLOs.
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White papersM&G Europe Real Estate Market Outlook
Growth outlook softens but mixed sentiment for European economies. Real estate continues to offer relative value as investors switch to safe haven asset Attractive qualities of European residential to expand its investible universe Growth potential of European logistics makes it a long-term strategic bet Positive dynamics of office sector ...
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White papersThe Good (Consumer), The Bad (Global Outlook) & The Ugly (Trade)
The IMF downgrades its global growth outlook, the Fed’s Beige Book notes household spending remains positive and a Brexit deal is on the table.
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White papersThe Elizabeth Warren Moment
E. Warren is now neck-and-neck with J. Biden (27%) in the Democratic primary polls and far ahead of B. Sanders (15%).From her fifth-place position just six months ago, she has risen 21 points in the polls since then, while Biden has lost four points and Sanders, six. Bookmakers now put her odds of winning the nomination at more than 50%, vs. less than 20% for Biden and 6% for Sanders.
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Asset Manager NewsPATRIZIA forecasts residential investment resilience despite geopolitical volatility
PATRIZIA AG, the global partner for pan-European real estate investment, has launched its 11th PATRIZIA INSIGHT study on the European Residential Markets. The findings show that despite today’s more volatile geopolitical and economic environment residential investment is forecast to continue offering resilient returns for investors. Total unlevered returns of between 5% to 6.5% per annum are expected over the next five years, of which 2.5% to 3.5% is expected to be income.
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White papersDespite the rise of cross-border distribution, domestic funds continue to have a bright future
Unabated support and growth in Cross Border funds
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Are High Yield Investors Being Compensated for Risks?
In the context of today’s fundamental backdrop and default outlook, spread levels suggest investors are being fairly compensated, relative to other points in the cycle, for the amount of risk they are taking.
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White papersBeyond ESG risk integration: Impact investing
Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investment is taking root within the infrastructure investment community. Infrastructure assets have the potential to bring strong social, environmental and economic benefits to society but they are also particularly exposed to ESG risks. Most investment firms active in the space have by now implemented ESG considerations in their investment process.
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White papersTapping into Europe’s abundant living sectors
With rising urbanisation and innovation, the world’s largest cities are getting larger and people and places are becoming more interconnected than they’ve ever been. Combined with a shift in perceptions around where we live, work, socialise and retire, the nature of housing is changing and we at M&G Real Estate see abundant potential in the living sectors – comprising student housing, rental apartments and senior living, says Marc Reijnen, Head of Investment and Asset Management for Continental Europe.
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White papersEuropean Real Estate Equity: Uncovering Value City by City
Amid an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, attractive value can still be found within European real estate—but it is important to consider sector and geography, and to partner with an active manager who has the flexibility to invest across different strategies and styles.
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White papersReal Estate Outlook Eurozone – Edition 2H19 - Retail concerns growing across the eurozone.
Interest rate environment boosts the outlook for returns
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White papersLeaders’ Perspectives: Quarterly – Autumn 2019
In the Autumn 2019 issue of the Leader’s Perspectives:
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White papersLogistics properties in high demand: e-commerce brings boom
The continuing e-commerce boom is driving ever greater demand for logistics properties. The increasingly complex value chains being created means more transport hubs are desperately needed in peripheral locations, as well as supply depots in city centres to store merchandise. This is being answered by investors seeking solid returns in an increasingly difficult market. The logistics sector, explains Nicolai Soltau, has strong potential for those who adhere to several important rules.
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White papersUK Real Estate Outlook - Edition 2H19
As the retail correction has fully taken hold, total returns from UK commercial property have slowed markedly delivering just 0.85% in 1H19, based on the quarterly MSCI Index. Outside the retail sector, occupational markets are generally holding up quite well, however investment markets remain very subdued as political uncertainty deters activity. We may see a bounce-back in investor demand should a deal be reached with the EU, but the recent change of Prime Minister and confrontational rhetoric which followed has made that outcome increasingly unlikely.
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White papersItalian politics take centre stage
The Deputy PM Matteo Salvini recently withdrew his party’s support to the coalition government headed by PM Giuseppe Conte, calling for a vote of no-confidence against the PM and subsequent snap elections. On the 20th of August, after addressing the Senate, PM Conte resigned. President Sergio Mattarella will now weigh three options – consult political parties to form a new government (with the same forces of the current coalition or new ones), appoint a caretaker government or call for fresh elections.
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White papersArgentina: how recent events shape the investment outlook
Recent update on Argentina: Government’s decision to freeze energy prices and suspend VAT on certain products will complicate fiscal metrics. The country is likely to miss the IMF target of a primary balance for 2019. However, the IMF could disburse the September tranche of financial assistance, although conviction levels are low.
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White papersArgentina: election surprise amplifies market and political risks
Argentina’s primary elections: Opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez won by largerthan-expected margin against President Macri. At this point, markets price in Fernandez’s victory in October elections.
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White papersUS-China Trade War: Walking a Tightrope
Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in June. However, the truce was short-lived and China responded with its own set of measures in form of a suspension of US agricultural imports and currency devaluation, which could further escalate the situation.
