All Commentary articles – Page 150
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White papersInvestment Outlook 2020 - Hotel California: No Leaving QE
Central bank policy is moving backwards now instead of forward, with three rate cuts reversed so far in the US and the European Central Bank (ECB) relaunching quantitative easing (QE). ‘Lower-for-longer’ risks are becoming a permanent state of affairs, with major significant implications for fixed income markets and investors. ...
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White papersBlog: Investing in sustainable growth: Energy transition
As a theme, the energy transition offers opportunities to investors for whom sustainable outcomes matter. Fund managers Ulrik Fugmann and Edward Lees explain how they approach this in this edition of The Intelligence Report.
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White papersNavigating the Asia Pacific real estate market
Louise Kavanagh, Managing Director, Asia Pacific, sits down with Asset T.V. to discuss the main geopolitical risks currently shaping Asia, how the trade war is affecting investor sentiment in the region and why investors are currently favouring a defensive position.
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White papersBlog: China themes for 2020 – trade war developments (1/2)
What are the key themes to watch for economic superpower China in 2020? In part 1 of this two-part series, senior economist Chi Lo discusses the outlook for the trade relationship with the US, China’s tactics and the consequences for world supply chains.
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White papersFixed Income Outlook: Keep an Eye on Systemic Risks in 2020
From a fraught geopolitical landscape to a global slowdown, the major systemic risks in today’s investment landscape are impossible to ignore. We expect such risks to contribute to persistently low and negative yields as well as to bouts of volatility in 2020. With bond yields near historic lows, can fixed-income markets generate solid returns without forcing investors to take too much risk?
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White papersGlobal Real Estate Securities - 2020 Market Outlook
As we enter the start of a new decade, global economic activity has shifted to a slower but steady pace compared to the past few years and Central banks stand ready to intervene to support economic activity by holding interest rates lower for longer until both growth AND inflation recover.
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White papersTime For A Flight To Cyclical Value In European Equity
When we look fundamentally at the risks and rewards in equity markets for 2020, we find that value o ffers better opportunities than growth as implied expectations are lower and therefore more attractive for value at this point. The performance of value vs growth has been on a downward trend for a long time, almost 13 years. In our view, the rotation towards value that started in September 2019 is likely to continue in 2020.
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White papersBlog: A scenario analysis for China’s 2020 outlook
Although recent data from China points to a broad-based recovery, downside risk to growth remains since business confidence has not returned and liquidity has not bounced back solidly yet.
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White papersTrade is not the only drag on growth
Entering 2019, our main expectations were for slower growth, easier monetary policy globally and continuing pressure on bond yields. At a high level, that is how the year played out. But the path to those outcomes has at times surprised us.
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White papersEquity Outlook: Between Optimism and a Hard Place in 2020
Global stock markets rallied in 2019, defying political and macroeconomic uncertainty. Will investors be as fortunate in 2020? Since many risks remain, maintaining style diversity and finding investing themes that are detached from volatility drivers will be important ingredients for equity allocations.
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White papers2020 European Market Outlook - Calm Before the Storm
With lower-for-longer government bond yields and economic growth expected to keep both rental growth and prime property yields low for the next five years, the European property market cycle has been extended into extra time.
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White papersIdentifying 2020’s successful challengers
Europe is still growing, if slower than expected. And so, looking ahead, there are exciting opportunities – for example in challenger brands or new business models disrupting the old guard.
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White papersImproving outlook for risk assets
The downturn in industrial output is bottoming out and corporate earnings – powered by rate cuts in the US and Europe – are about to accelerate.
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White papersManaging the carbon footpath
Whether transport, energy or utilities, Europe’s infrastructure is set to play an essential part in the transition to a greener environment and better society. Just as new “green” infrastructure is being built, so too old “dirty” infrastructure providing essential services must be decarbonised.
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White papersDemand grows for high-quality ESG analytics
After the buzz comes the reality. As we look towards 2020, the key responsible investment (RI) themes are already evident. Technology, regulatory changes, enhanced analytics, active use of voting rights and thematic issues (eg, climate change or the sustainable development goals) are key elements of this and are set to be the focus in the RI field.
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White papersLooking through the Brexit clouds
Looking ahead to 2020, we are full of hope for a conclusion to Brexit. As investors, our approach to property investment remains constant, mitigating specific risk to suit the economic environment. However, Brexit is clouding the investment landscape and has created a stasis across most home-grown markets
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - January 2020
As we approach the year-end, a look back over the past 12 months reminds us how unconventional this year of records has been. On the upside, equities rallied to historical highs in December and fixed income returns were also strong as bond yields fell. The combination of these trends enabled a traditional 50 bond/50 equity balanced portfolio for European to investors generate 15.5%1, the best annual performance in the last two decades.
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White papersTrade war clouds the outlook
The effects of the US’s multiple confrontations with allies and adversaries over its terms of trade with the rest of the world have overshadowed commodity markets throughout 2019. At the beginning of this year we anticipated relatively swift progress towards a trade deal between the US and China. But as the year progressed it became clear that this confrontation would last much longer than we had initially expected. We now believe it will continue beyond the US presidential election late next year, irrespective of which candidate wins.
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White papersReal estate outlook 2020: Continental Europe
As 2019 comes to a close Vivienne Bolla and Souad Cherfouh look ahead to the key themes that will shape the European real estate markets in 2020 and beyond.
