All Commentary articles – Page 152
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - March 2019
If an investor had woken up today after three months and looked at the markets, he/she could reasonably say that not much had changed. The year started on strong footing and risk assets experienced a massive rebound in the first weeks of 2019, erasing most of the losses experienced in one of the most awful Decembers in history. As a result some valuation gaps have been closed somewhat, though not exhausted. Markets switched rapidly from a “fear” to a “greed” mood. Catalysts of the renewed optimism have included the dovish shift in the Federal Reserve’s strategy, and increasing signs of progress in the trade negotiations between the US and China.
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White papersH1 2019 - Emerging Markets Charts & Views: Seek opportunities, but be aware of short-term volatility
Emerging markets (EM) started 2019 on a strong footing and, as a result, some excessive valuation gaps have been partially closed. Yet, we continue to see opportunities in all EM segments (equity, bonds in hard currency and in local currency) with a medium to long-term view.
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White papersA dovish ECB, a little relief for the banking sector
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new series of TLTROs starting in September 2019 and changed its forward guidance, with a commitment not to hike rates this year.
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White papersEuropean Loan Market - review and outlook
European loans found relative favour with investors as 2018 marked a return to volatility for global markets. European loan returns were modestly positive, thanks to pricing stability and high running coupon income, unlike other risk assets.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - February 2019
After a tough December, which led to an abrupt valuation reset, risk assets rebounded in the first weeks of the year, boosted by a market-sympathetic turn in Fed rhetoric and an increased optimism on trade negotiations. As the current reasons for optimism should be confirmed, we believe it is time to re-approach the areas of risk assets where the correction has brought value back, especially in emerging markets.
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White papersInvesting in the Low-Carbon Economy
Private capital has never been given such an important role in tackling climate change and de- carbonising the economy. As Philippe Le Houérou, CEO of International Finance Corporation (IFC), says, the private sector “holds the key,” noting that it “has the innovation, the financing and the tools.
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White papersIs the real estate market gearing down?
The one question José Pellicer fields wherever he goes is, “Where exactly are we in the property cycle?” As Head of Research at PATRIZIA, José has a prompt response
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White papersTime to increase risk exposure: start with emerging markets and credit
The excess of pessimism at the end of 2018 resulted in a sharp decline in financial markets and renewed volatility. According to our analysis, market participants priced in twice the slowdown risk that economic fundamentals justified.
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White papers2019 Outlook: Expect a tougher climb
Slower growth. Rising rates. More volatility. 2019 looks to be a year that could be challenging for investors. Yet we believe the markets offer a range of opportunities, and we are finding a number of investment ideas for our clients.
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White papersTen predictions for 2019: Choppy and frustrating, but no recession
Making predictions is a dicey proposition. In the many years I’ve been making my annual market predictions (more than I’d care to admit), I usually have a clear sense about where things are headed. But 2019 seems to be a tougher year to forecast. In fact, I think it would be pretty easy to make either a bullish or bearish case for the stock market over the coming 12 months.
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White papersIs Government Shutdown a Prelude to Debt Ceiling Debate?
The economic impact from the partial government shutdown is expected to be minimal, but the markets will take notice if the debt ceiling becomes an issue.
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White papersAfter Multiple Hikes, Could Fed Resort to Cutting Rates Next?
The Fed might be at the crossroads of whether to continue raising interest rates or stand pat in 2019, with some expectations for even a rate cut in 2020.
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White papersPhase Transitions: Major Changes for Markets to Navigate
From the rising cost of capital to the trade war and key demographic changes, markets have to navigate through a series of phase transitions in 2019.
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White papersEvent Risk Enters Phase 3: What's At Stake in 2019?
Event risk outcomes could be dragged out in 2019 as issues like the trade war and questions over when the Fed might halt rate hikes simmer in markets.
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White papersGlobal Perspectives: 2019 Outlook
The new year brings new challenges and new opportunities for investors. The investment professionals of Principal Global Investors look at the regional macroeconomic outlooks and examine the major asset classes.
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White papersMarket Volatility: Headwinds, from Trade War to Rates, in 2019?
Markets could face headwinds in 2019 from the lag effects of major events that took place in 2018, from the trade war to rate hikes and corporate tax cuts.
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White papersPost-G20 Market Implications for U.S. – China
The G20 meeting yielded the U.S.-China trade war cease-fire and the Russia-Saudi Arabia pact to curb oil output. How will they pan out in 2019?
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White papersMajor Market Themes to Watch in 2019
How will markets perform in 2019 after a tumultuous 2018? CME Chief Economist, Blu Putnam outlines key themes to watch.
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White papersStrategic Relative Value: Q4 2018
The investment climate is becoming more challenging as previous easy monetary conditions are being reversed. Risk/return expectations need to be re-evaluated, but investment opportunities still exist around the world.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views: December 2018
This year has proven to be challenging for portfolio construction, as well as regarding returns. To put this into perspective, for 2009-17, our analysis shows that each year, on average, 76% of major asset classes (including different regional government bonds, equity, inflation-linked, currency and commodities) recorded positive performances.
