US and European economies both continue to expand but at different paces. While US growth will likely pick up this year, boosted by an expansionist fiscal policy, the Eurozone cycle probably peaked last year.
What effect could this have on the Fed and ECB monetary policies? How are “global risks” (protectionism, geopolitical risks) likely to play? After setting out some thoughts on the new constraints facing central banks we argue that looming global risks could push the Fed to hike interest rates further and the ECB to hang fire for longer, posing risks to the normalisation of its monetary policy.
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