All North America articles
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White papersDivergences and Pivots
The exuberant response to last Thursday’s inflation data suggests markets are primed for the “pivot”—but could they be extrapolating too far?
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White papers
US mid-term election: no red tide
Election result: The outlook for the House of Representatives (House) and the Senate remains uncertain and the situation remains fluid. Republicans are still expected to have an eventual slender majority in the House, but a Democratic majority remains a possibility.
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White papers
For the Fed, the impossible QT
The Fed has started shrinking its balance sheet as part of its fight against elevated inflation. However, QT is being challenged by the Fed’s new role as a counterparty of money-market funds. The process would be greatly improved if the Treasury were to announce a debt buyback financed ...
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Blog
US MBS Agency Performance October 2022: MBS finishes weakly after earlier impressive rebound
Just when the MBS Agency market seemed destined for a winning month, Halloween arrived and wiped out those good efforts and another losing month was posted.
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Blog
Why did the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso outperform the super-strong US dollar this year?
Brazilian real and Mexican peso are the only major currencies that have outperformed the strong US dollar YTD September 30, 2022. By the end of Q3 this year, Brazilian real and Mexican peso have gained 2.9% and 1.7% relative to the US dollar, respectively, both helped by the rally in Q1. Even in Q3, which saw a brutal sell-off in almost all currencies except the dollar, peso and real have managed the smallest losses of 0.2-2.9%.
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White papers
Has the euro reached lows versus the dollar?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we examine the factors behind the decline of the euro versus the US dollar this year and assess whether the single currency has further to fall.
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White papers
Real Estate Outlook – US, Edition September 2022
“We continue to focus our strategies on defensive positioning while economic uncertainties persist. This typically includes marginal movements around strategy targets; less leverage, lower amount of value-add activities, and a focus on increasing occupancy over rent growth in retail and office.”
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White papers
United States: a green industrial policy in the making
The US Congress’s August approval of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) came as a surprise to most observers. With the mid-term elections just months away and no majority in Congress, no one expected new legislation to be passed. Yet, the Democrats and Republicans managed to reach a compromise. We discuss below the measures announced to promote the environmental transition, which is the centrepiece of the act.
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Podcast
U.S. Commercial Real Estate: A Time for Fear or Greed?
As negative headlines come fast and furious, commercial real estate investors are faced with a question: Is now a time to get defensive, be opportunistic, or prepare for the worst?
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White papers
Russell US Indexes Spotlight - October 2022
Large-caps lost ground to small-caps in the Q3 selloff, as investors favored smaller players in Telecom, Health Care and resource stocks, where the small-cap index has bigger exposures. In another U-turn, Growth held up better than Value for both size indexes, buoyed by the summer rally in Consumer Discretionary and other growth stocks.
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White papers
Fixed Income Insights (Canada Edition) - October 2022
The brief G7 bond rally in July was a distant memory by September, overshadowed by a bear market, after coordinated G7 central bank rate hikes to address broadening price pressures heighted fears of a global recession (or worse). Despite the market turmoil, Canadian corporates and governments gained in Q3.
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White papers
26th Annual GIPS® Standards Conference
We are back in person in Boston this year! Can’t attend in-person? You can purchase the Digital Content Package to watch sessions in your own time!
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White papers
What Jay Powell Really Meant
Read what the Fed Chair was actually thinking as he read his script.
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White papers
Making Up Lost Ground
Another 75bps and more hawkish talk from Jerome Powell. Markets reacted swiftly to signals that more large increases are coming—more than they had priced in. See how this frontloading by central banks aligns with our central scenarios and expectations for the coming year.
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Blog
How Bear Markets End and the Path Forward for Investors
No sane investor sets out intending to lose money - but when this outcome nonetheless transpires the experience can be psychologically racking for investors, novice and professional alike. Between the uncertainty, the relentless flashing of red that accentuates our loss aversion, one unifying theme often lost amidst downturns is that every U.S. bear market has ended.
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White papers
Top 5 takeaways for infrastructure
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 is the most important US clean energy legislation in recent history. The bill gives investors unprecedented policy visibility that was previously lacking. Energy tax credits have been expanded to investments such as standalone energy storage, clean transportation, hydrogen etc., opening up new investment opportunities.
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Blog
U.S MBS Agency Performance August 2022: MBS Underperforms as Reality Sets in On Rising Rates and Fed Subtraction
The MBS market saw its performance steadily decline in the days leading into the month-end Jackson Hole Fed summit, as Vols ticked up and widening ensued. Mid-month tightening was overwhelmed by Fed Hawkishness as monthly performance continues to alternate.
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White papers
Can U.S. midterm elections move the market? 5 charts to watch
In a year when soaring inflation, the war in Ukraine and a bear market have commanded headlines, the U.S. midterm elections risked becoming an afterthought. But now the election is coming back into focus. And with good reason.
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White papers
Private debt prepares to ride out the storm
Churchill’s Jason Strife participates in a Private Debt Investor roundtable discussion with other leaders in the U.S. private debt industry.
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White papers
Q2 earnings season – strong results helped support the summer rally
The Q2 earnings season was again stronger than expected and contributed to the equity market rally up to mid-August. However, the results are of ‘low quality’ and are not a reason to turn bullish on equities. Ultimately, margins coming down from very high levels should drive the earnings downturn in our view.
