All North America articles – Page 6
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White papersFed hikes by a little less, but promise more to come
After hiking its policy rate by 75 basis points at each of the prior four meetings, the Fed took its foot off the brakes a bit, raising rates by only 50 basis points at its final meeting of the year. Inflation concerns remain, despite a string of softer data, but risks to higher prices and slower growth now appear more balanced than they have for several years.
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White papersU.S. markets outlook for 2023
The S&P 500 Index recorded its worst year in more than a decade in 2022, falling 13.1% through to 30 November. And investors face more market volatility in the year ahead as the macroeconomic environment poses headwinds for many companies.
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White papersLooking ahead: U.S private credit in an age of scarcity
For over a decade, including through COVID-19, the tide of capital has flowed mostly in one direction: into markets. That’s because since the Great Recession of 2008, the U.S. Federal Reserve has kept interest rates low. Public credit, both loans and bonds, benefited from this support. But as we look ahead to 2023, it is important to shift our gaze and examine the impact of rate hikes and quantitative tightening on capital markets and private credit.
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White papersWill US employment hold its ground?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we observe that the Federal Reserve’s aim to raise unemployment in its fight against inflation is starting to pay off, but will the central bank also be able to contain the upcoming recession?
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White papersDivergences and Pivots
The exuberant response to last Thursday’s inflation data suggests markets are primed for the “pivot”—but could they be extrapolating too far?
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White papersUS mid-term election: no red tide
Election result: The outlook for the House of Representatives (House) and the Senate remains uncertain and the situation remains fluid. Republicans are still expected to have an eventual slender majority in the House, but a Democratic majority remains a possibility.
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White papersFor the Fed, the impossible QT
The Fed has started shrinking its balance sheet as part of its fight against elevated inflation. However, QT is being challenged by the Fed’s new role as a counterparty of money-market funds. The process would be greatly improved if the Treasury were to announce a debt buyback financed ...
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White papersHas the euro reached lows versus the dollar?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we examine the factors behind the decline of the euro versus the US dollar this year and assess whether the single currency has further to fall.
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White papersReal Estate Outlook – US, Edition September 2022
“We continue to focus our strategies on defensive positioning while economic uncertainties persist. This typically includes marginal movements around strategy targets; less leverage, lower amount of value-add activities, and a focus on increasing occupancy over rent growth in retail and office.”
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White papersUnited States: a green industrial policy in the making
The US Congress’s August approval of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) came as a surprise to most observers. With the mid-term elections just months away and no majority in Congress, no one expected new legislation to be passed. Yet, the Democrats and Republicans managed to reach a compromise. We discuss below the measures announced to promote the environmental transition, which is the centrepiece of the act.
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White papersWhat Jay Powell Really Meant
Read what the Fed Chair was actually thinking as he read his script.
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White papersMaking Up Lost Ground
Another 75bps and more hawkish talk from Jerome Powell. Markets reacted swiftly to signals that more large increases are coming—more than they had priced in. See how this frontloading by central banks aligns with our central scenarios and expectations for the coming year.
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White papersTop 5 takeaways for infrastructure
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 is the most important US clean energy legislation in recent history. The bill gives investors unprecedented policy visibility that was previously lacking. Energy tax credits have been expanded to investments such as standalone energy storage, clean transportation, hydrogen etc., opening up new investment opportunities.
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White papersCan U.S. midterm elections move the market? 5 charts to watch
In a year when soaring inflation, the war in Ukraine and a bear market have commanded headlines, the U.S. midterm elections risked becoming an afterthought. But now the election is coming back into focus. And with good reason.
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White papersPrivate debt prepares to ride out the storm
Churchill’s Jason Strife participates in a Private Debt Investor roundtable discussion with other leaders in the U.S. private debt industry.
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White papersQ2 earnings season – strong results helped support the summer rally
The Q2 earnings season was again stronger than expected and contributed to the equity market rally up to mid-August. However, the results are of ‘low quality’ and are not a reason to turn bullish on equities. Ultimately, margins coming down from very high levels should drive the earnings downturn in our view.
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White papersSocial issues rise up voting season agenda
This year’s voting season saw a rise in shareholder resolutions on social issues in North America and Europe, along with the mainstreaming of management-proposed say-on-climate votes. Amy Wilson and Laura Jernegan examine some of the key meetings and shareholder proposals.
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White papersAMN Healthcare: Engagement commentary
As the leading healthcare staffing company in the US, AMN has the ability to lead the healthcare industry on the issue of gender pay.
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White papersEquity market downturn: The path forward
In the post-Volcker era, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has typically exhibited a vigilant approach to fighting inflation. Whenever labor market tightness appeared and inflation was beginning to approach its target rate of 2% Core PCE, the Fed would often spring into action with rate hikes. This cycle, however, has been unique, with the Federal Reserve instead permitting inflation pressures to build-up rather than promptly stamping them out.
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White papersData Delivers Mixed Messages Amid Slowdown
Mixed data is fueling debate about underlying economic strength and recession odds. Meanwhile, markets this week await Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Elsewhere, Chinese policymakers took steps to address rising risks to the outlook. Eyes will be on Nord Stream 1 next week.
