All United States articles – Page 48
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FX Leadership
Can the U.S. dollar maintain its leadership of global currencies amid a decelerating economy and the China trade war elevating risk in the United States?
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The U.S. Yield Curve inverted, now what?
On March 22, 2019, the U.S. yield curve briefly inverted, with the difference between the three-month and 10-year yields turning negative for the first time since August 2007.
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Inside Real Estate: REITs provide stable growth late in the cycle
On the ground real estate fundamentals are supportive of a steady, balanced growth outlook for REIT earnings on average. Growth across sectors, countries, or companies can be quite divergent of course.
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Debt Ceiling Back in Play
The twin threat of a technical debt default and potential government shutdown could resurface later this year, likely affecting equities and Treasuries.
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Market Resilience: Strength In Numbers
Concerns about where the financial markets are heading are at the forefront of many investors’ minds. The risks of a US or global recession this year continue to persist amid slowing global growth, trade tensions and worries about potential geopolitical shocks.
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Lessons from a decade of bank bailouts
Both the US and the UK moved fast to clean up bank balance sheets – Europe, however, delayed and so will face the next downturn from a weaker position
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Consumer delinquency - Thank u, next!
Headlines on consumer delinquency have taken a negative spin. Recent auto delinquency data is at near-peak levels despite today’s low unemployment. But it’s important to examine exactly what is being reported as “delinquency” when reviewing the data.
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US v China: the real agenda behind the trade war
Not since the Cold War has the US had a serious rival superpower. Even in that period of intense nuclear paranoia, a sign mounted inside the Pentagon proclaimed: “If we ever faced a real enemy, we would be in deep trouble”. With the rise of an increasingly powerful, influential and technologically advanced China, that adversary could have arrived.
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Get active about your passive
The evidence is mounting that investors have given up on trying to beat the market in US large caps. For example, Bloomberg recently reported that passively managed large cap US equity fund assets overtook actively managed large cap US equity fund assets at the end of 2018.
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2019 long-term capital market expectations
We believe the global growth outlook is improving, supported by fiscal stimulus around the world, the pro-growth policies of the incoming US administration and stabilized growth in China. We also see inflation hovering in the moderate zone for the next five to 10 years.
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Malled to death: How investors can benefit from the fear of retail property
Retail property has become a bad word. We believe the fear of property labelled “retail” creates opportunity for investors willing to take a closer look.
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Monetary Policy’s Effect on EM Debt
Rate expectations have changed materially across emerging and developed markets in the first quarter of 2019. What does this mean for emerging markets debt? Barings’ Ricardo Adrogué weighs in.
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Trade Deals and Political Realities
Could the USMCA accord among the US, Canada and Mexico, and a potential US-China trade deal get approval from the Democrats-led House of Representatives?
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Outlook for US office - changing occupier trends
The future of the office market has been at the subject of much debate and consternation among commercial real estate professionals and investors over the past decade.
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Big Challenges for Equities, Bonds and FX Markets
A series of challenges, from the debt ceiling to Fed quantitative tightening to Brexit, will be confronting a variety of markets.
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Fed to End Diet
The Fed’s program to shrink its bloated balance sheet post-quantitative easing is drawing to a close earlier than planned as liabilities pose constraints.
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Asset Allocation Update - Much ado about equities and credit
Equities and corporate bonds often do well together. Over the past 20 years the “beta coefficient” between credit to equities has been 0.5 in both the US and Europe; that is to say, for every 1% rise (or fall) in equity prices, credit markets have tended to return (or weaken) 0.5%.
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Private Real Estate Debt: the potential for enhance risk-adjusted returns late in the cycle
As the business and real estate cycles continue to mature, exposure to defensively positioned real estate debt strategies may provide investors a more favourable return outcome should economic conditions weaken.
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The inflation story: 2019 and beyond
In this issue of Ahead of the Curve, we assess the prospects for inflation in the US and the eurozone.
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Brent-WTI Oil Spread Taking Cue from Houston-Midland?
The price spread between two relatively new futures contracts, WTI Midland and WTI Houston, has been over the past two years a leading indicator of the spread between the two most venerable crude oil futures contracts: WTI and Brent. The economics behind this might offer clues about how oil markets evolve in the future.