The US election and Covid-19 vaccines: implications for the economy and markets

Joe Biden has been elected 46th president of the United States, and it is likely that he will preside over a divided Congress, with the Republicans maintaining their Senate majority. US voters, like the markets, appear to prefer a balance of power. While President Trump has contested the election results in numerous states, President-elect Biden is likely to be confirmed.

A divided governing combination will result in fewer and less extreme policy shifts than contemplated under a ‘Blue Wave’ pre-election scenario. Another round of fiscal stimulus should be passed shortly after Biden’s inauguration. We expect the fiscal package to total a relatively modest $1 trillion, with allocations earmarked for targeted Covid-19-related support and selected democratic platform initiatives.

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