All United States articles – Page 45
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White papersKeep Your Eye on the Loser
The election’s winner will drive market sentiment for the next several months, but the loser could reshape economic policy for the decade.
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White papersHigh-Growth U.S. Logistics Hubs: East Coast Industrial Markets On The Move
In the past decade, eastern U.S. industrial markets have gained considerable market share of the collective national trade volume. U.S. West Coast (USWC) port dominance has been gradually eroding as U.S. East Coast (USEC) ports capture more and more eastbound transpacific container trade (Figure 1).
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White papersWebinar – Nowcasting the US Economy
Join CME Group Chief Economist, Blu Putnam, as he shares insights using alternative data and nowcasting to monitor developments in the US economy.
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White papers2020-Q1 US Market Commentary
COVID-19 and the policies used to quell its spread have forced many economies around the globe into a recession. This weakness inevitably flowed through to housing data, but there are some early indications that the market is in better shape than many feared.
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White papersUnited States - Quarterly Research 2Q 2020
The U.S. economy is awakening from the induced coma designed to “flatten the curve” of COVID-19. As activity resumes and businesses reopen, data for everything from jobs to consumption is showing a rebound from the stunningly depressed levels in the second quarter. For many data series, the initial shape of the rebound will undoubtedly be V-like, giving hope that the recovery will be as swift as the collapse. Unfortunately, the V-shape may say more about the speed and severity of the downturn than the path ahead, particularly as the curve of infections in the U.S. steepens with surging new case counts across much of the South and West.
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White papersTikTok on the Clock, Now Don’t Let Fiscal Stimulus Stop
TikTok may be the tip of the iceberg as the U.S. recommends tech companies remove Chinese apps from their app stores. Uncertainty around the next stimulus package may continue to weigh on consumer spending as we expect weaker data for July.
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White papersCautious Consumers Await Fourth Fiscal Stimulus Bill
U.S. politicians will continue negotiating the next fiscal package. The July employment report will likely be weak due to rising uncertainty, cautious consumers, and greater restrictive measures. Meanwhile, next week’s BoE meeting is expected to strike a bearish tone.
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White papersA Summer Setback in Jobs Doesn’t Mean a Double-Dip Recession
The odds are rising that July will produce a poor employment report in the U.S. Nevertheless, as long as Congress delivers a fourth stimulus bill that continues to support the incomes of those out of work, the U.S. economy should be able to continue its slow recovery.
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White papersThe Case for US Equities in Global Portfolios
The post-pandemic market reality accentuates the attractiveness of the US stock market. Similar to the period after the Great Financial Crisis, we believe the medium-to-long-term landscape once again favors companies with records of large-cap secular growth, stability and defensiveness. These characteristics define a much higher proportion of the US market relative to the rest of the world resulting in what we believe may be a more optimistic outlook for US equities.
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White papersHow Long Can This Go On?
U.S. government debts may set new records, but investors should focus more on borrowing costs and growth rates.
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White papersInvestment Grade Credit: Whatever It Takes
After the historic rollercoaster ride IG credit took in the first quarter, U.S. policymakers seem to have won the day, at least for now—with their own version of the phrase made famous by former ECB President Mario Draghi: Whatever it takes.
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White papersWhy USD Fixed Income may look increasingly attractive to European investors
US fixed income can be a valuable source of diversification for European investors, but in the past the cost of hedging of the US Dollar exposure was high, neutralizing this benefit. The situation has changed, and the cost of hedging for Euro-based investors is much lower than in the recent past. Furthermore, we expect this cost will remain low.
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White papersRecord US Index Concentration Adds Hazards for Investors
US growth companies led the second-quarter rebound, fueled by the five largest technology and new media stocks, which now comprise more than a third of the Russell 1000 Growth Index (R1000G). Investors should be alert to the risks of high benchmark concentration.
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White papersBiden’s election momentum and financial markets
Joe Biden has a historically large lead over President Donald Trump in the polls, including in the critical electoral college vote, but that could narrow closer to the election.The slide in Trump’s approval rating was most noticeable among senior citizens and he has not led in a single major poll so far this year, though it should be noted that polls have proved unreliable in the past few elections. To put Biden’s lead in perspective, no prior candidate or President has seen a lead this large at this point of the race. However, Trump still holds onto slightly favourable ratings on the economy. A game changer could be the Democratic party taking control of the Senate, which appared unlikely early this year.
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White papers2020 Isn’t Only Hindsight
By any conventional measure, the current recovery and expansion phase of the U.S. business cycle is the longest in the nation’s history. This naturally leads many to conclude that the economy, and by extension property markets, must be “late cycle” with an inevitable downturn just around the corner.
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White papersU.S. Economic & Property Market Perspective Q1 2020
At the beginning of March, the U.S. economy was on pace to record another quarter of moderate but positive growth. Total employment had increased by 214,000 in January and 275,000 in February and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s real-time model (GDPNow) suggested annualized real GDP growth of 2.5% for the quarter. Within a span of just a few weeks, that assessment was radically upended as more than 30 million American workers lost their jobs in the rapid shutdown of wide swathes of the U.S. economy in response to the equally rapid spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19).
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White papersWhy Aren’t Markets Tanking?
There’s a list of reasons that might make an investor squirm, but there may be change afoot they should watch closely.
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White papersHow to protect an equity portfolio with an overlay strategy in a market downturn
Dynamic risk management strategies (risk overlays) can be useful for investors. They are a means of reconciling their two main objectives: capturing the risk premia of risky assets to meet their long-term strategic goals, while still meeting short-term objectives such as limits on drawdowns or requirements for regulatory capital.[1]
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White papersAmericas Outlook - May 2020
The outbreak of COVID-19 has quickly translated into a severe shock for the global economy and real estate markets. Near-term indicators of performance have turned sharply downward, and the situation is fast-moving.
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White papersPreparing Chinese Holdings for Potential US Action
Tensions between the US and China are flaring up again, but tariffs probably aren’t on the table this time. With pressure mounting on Chinese stocks listed in the US, including those widely held in emerging-market portfolios, investors need to consider how to prepare for the mounting risks.
