All Fixed Income articles – Page 6
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White papers“US(D) exceptionalism” is not going away
Although equity investors have been adjusting their regional allocations away from the US dollar in recent months, there is little sign this is happening in bond markets, where yields remain high and alternatives to the dollar are limited.
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White papersAsset Class Returns H1 2025
Improved growth/inflation mix: Our long-term model assumptions anticipate a fragmented and even more delayed energy transition, incorporating secular trends and uncertainties that impact price dynamics and volatility. Compared to last year, the growth/inflation outlook appears less penalised by a restrictive regulatory framework around the energy transition, but the uncertainty around inflation has increased.
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White papersWill the Fed Stay in the Monetary Policy Driver’s Seat?
Efforts to reduce the central bank’s autonomy would likely disrupt markets.
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White papersMid-year investment update – Through the rapids
Markets have faced no shortage of challenges over the last quarter, most notably the threat of US import tariffs after ‘Liberation Day’, but also the prospect of a surge in oil prices stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and a sell-off in US Treasury yields following an expansionary budget bill in the US.
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White papersDiversifying direct lending portfolios through sponsor-less lending
The landscape for direct lending is crowded. Increased competition and limited buy-out activity have put lenders under more pressure to deploy. In navigating the challenges of a maturing asset class, investors may consider sponsor-less lending in the lower mid-market as a means of diversifying a portfolio and enhancing the potential for return.
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White papersWhy the construction of a Cashflow Driven Investment strategy is key
Within any portfolio, getting the construction right is an important element to ensuring that the objectives and aims are met. For Cashflow Driven Investment (CDI) strategies, this is particularly true given their long-term horizons and often tailored fixed income allocation.
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VideoInvestment Grade Credit: Panel Discussion with Mercer, LGPS Central & Capital Group
Capital Group participated in Asset TV’s Investment Grade Credit panel alongside Mercer and LGPS Central, sharing insights on global credit dynamics, private credit, sector resilience, and how institutional investors are navigating today’s evolving IG credit landscape.
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White papersPension funds themes for an era of geopolitical and policy shifts
Our short-term outlook for the second half of 2025 highlights significant shifts in the global rewiring of trade and financial markets, alongside historic changes in tariffs and fiscal policy. These developments carry important implications for long-term investors, particularly pension funds, for which we see three key investment themes.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - July-August 2025
Global equities reached new record levels in July on expectations of trade deals, easing of US tariff threats and hopes of a short-term boost to US growth from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). This has happened despite US tariffs moving higher (when compared with before Trump came to power), indicating some complacency in risk assets. On the other hand, bond yields in the US, the UK, Europe, and Japan are reflecting concerns over debt sustainability.
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White papersThe need for stronger US fiscal policy
US Treasury bonds have long provided domestic and foreign investors a modest yield that was assumed to be risk free. Yields (and thus prices) could be volatile, but the risk of the US government defaulting on its debt was regarded as so low that US Treasury yields became a benchmark for all other government and corporate debt: If the US government had zero risk of default, the default risk of any other borrower could be simply measured by looking at the additional yield it offered over a comparable Treasury security.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 3Q 2025
In the wake of an eventful quarter, we believe that more benign inflation data and softer but still positive growth could soon prompt the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts, joining other central banks that have maintained easing polices. While tepid, economic growth remains positive globally and, in the U.S., could improve toward the end of the year and into 2026. In this environment, we currently favor exposure to shorter-term U.S. Treasuries, as well as opportunities in high yield and local currency-denominated emerging market debt, with tariff-related volatility posing a key risk.
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White papersRenewed threats to the Fed’s independence
Political pressure now threatens the Fed’s operational independence, prompting sharp market reactions—including a surge in long-term yields, a weaker dollar, and elevated volatility—which underscores the crucial role of central bank autonomy in maintaining market confidence and stability.
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White papersIn Conversation – Navigating the shifting landscape of private debt
Against a backdrop of wider macroeconomic uncertainty, investment in private credit in Europe continues to grow, supported by a broadening range of asset classes as well as welcome regulatory developments. Here, our infrastructure investment experts discuss their views on the road ahead for infrastructure investing.
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White papersSummer Twists: Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Treasuries
As expected, the 2017 tax cuts are being made permanent. Additional cuts are also being introduced, including an exemption on tips and overtime, deductions for seniors, and an increase in the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 (this allows households, in particular, to deduct their property taxes from their federal income tax).
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - July-August 2025
“While the OBBBA’s tax cuts may stimulate the US economy in the short run, rising trade tariffs this summer could limit gains. The bill also heightens medium-term growth risks.”
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White papersThe Hidden Edge: Why Granular European Assets Hold the Key to Outperformance
In today’s complex and fragmented European real estate market, opportunities are available if you are able to recognise them and are willing to do the hard work. But to see and recognise them you need to have your “boots on the ground,” your “hands on the data,” and your “head in the realities of the local market’s engine rooms.” In Germany, particularly, I’ve come to see that the greatest value is not just found but created, through rigorous granular origination and disciplined active asset management. That is the strategy we’ve embraced at Arrow Global, and it’s one I believe that offers the best chances of value creation.
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White papersHigh Yield: Keep Calm & “Carry” On
The global economic landscape remains in flux as investors navigate a complex mix of resilient data, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical tension. In the U.S., recession probabilities have receded but not disappeared. While hard data—such as employment and consumption—has held up, soft indicators continue to flash caution. Inflation remains sticky in places, and the full impact of recently introduced tariffs has yet to be felt. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve appears content to remain on hold, awaiting further clarity before adjusting policy.
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White papersPrivate credit: how technology can drive efficiencies
We’ve seen the growth in the private credit market, what are some of the key drivers?
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White papersThe changing world of institutional credit
The traditional boundaries between public and private lending are rapidly dissolving, creating new opportunities – and new challenges – for investors.
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White papersA Weaker Dollar? It May Be Time to Get Used to It
Policy shifts may create an incentive to diversify.
