All Fixed Income articles – Page 6
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White papersHow artificial intelligence is reshaping financial services
AI is helping enhance efficiency, reduce costs and improve decision-making
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White papersThe macro fallout from ‘Liberation Day’
The sweeping tariff hikes announced on “Liberation Day” have escalated fears of stagflation, pushing recession odds higher and rattling markets. With inflation likely to rise and GDP growth projected to drop by up to 2.4%, the economic strain could be the most significant since the 1930s. Still, investor sentiment may recover as attention shifts toward pro-growth policies like tax cuts and deregulation.
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PodcastOuterblue Convictions- Global Investment Views - Europe rallies behind historic German spending bill
In this month’s review of the latest developments on the global economy and in financial markets, we focus on the seismic shifts that have been happening in Europe in the past few weeks, in particular, the historic spending package approved by the German parliament. Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, catch-up to discuss the remarkable change in policy, and its implications for Germany and the wider Eurozone.
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White papersM&A Renaissance. Exploring Fixed Income Opportunities
M&A activity, which is growing among IG and HY issuers, is driven by expectations of lower funding costs and a weak macroeconomic environment. This trend, which is set to strengthen, generates investment opportunities in new bond issues, often priced at a discount, to be evaluated with rigorous analysis to select the most promising opportunities.
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PodcastTalking Heads – Thinking about diversification? Try asset-backed securities
European securitised assets, backed by loans, mortgages and other categories of (consumer) credit as collateral, offer investors a source of diversification from other forms of credit such as corporate debt.
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White papersGlobal Macro Outlook: Second Quarter 2025
Uncertainty is the watchword for the global economy. Dramatic policy shifts—tariffs in particular—by the Trump administration 2.0 have so far surprised financial markets and softened consumer sentiment. But we see a global economy well positioned to absorb potential shocks in the months ahead.
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White papersMaking diversification great again: April macro and asset class views
President Trump has designated April 2 for unveiling a series of tariffs on trade partners, referring to it as America’s ‘Liberation Day.’ But businesses and investors won’t be liberated from trade policy uncertainty.
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White papersHas US high yield been impacted by recent market volatility?
The US High Yield (‘HY’) market has so far demonstrated resilience throughout the current period of recent market volatility. For the HY asset class, a low, positive GDP environment can potentially offer a constructive environment. Short duration approaches should offer a nice balance of potential outcomes.
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White papersFive factors for long-term investors considering high yield
Since Covid-19 disrupted markets in early 2020, high yield has been one of the best-performing fixed income sectors. In fact, it has significantly outpaced the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index (and Global Aggregate Index), US corporate bonds, emerging markets bonds and securitised credit — and by a wide margin.
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White papersEurope in focus amidst fiscal boost
“President Trump’s approach to trade and global alliances may be a wake up call for Europe. The region is signalling a clear and a historical shift, which will require target measures to boost growth efficiently.”
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White papersThe direction of long term rates in an era of high debt
Real interest rates have been on a secular decline since the mid-1980s but have corrected sharply higher since the Covid pandemic, higher inflation and the end of central banks’ Quantitative Easing (QE). Now, public debt is much higher and there are new demands for funding (e.g., for defence and net zero ambitions), which should argue for structurally higher long-term interest rates.
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White papersQ1 2025 Emerging Markets Review and Outlook
Emerging markets have entered 2025 navigating a new phase of geopolitical and economic volatility. With the Trump administration’s trade-first agenda introducing fresh uncertainty—and a Fed now facing the prospect of stagflation—EMD investors are weighing both disruption and opportunity.
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White papersTrade Finance: Uncorrelated alpha potential
Trade finance – short-term loans to facilitate physical cross-border transactions – plays a vital role in facilitating global trade flows. It is estimated that 80% of world trade is dependent on some form of financing. This can be attributed to tighter credit conditions for obtaining alternative sources of capital. In this paper, we outline why more investors are turning towards this asset class as a diversifier in their portfolios.
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White papersCorporate Hybrids: What Are They?
A short introduction to a unique and fast-growing asset class.
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White papersDebt divergence: Investors stand at the crossroads
The world is facing a US$250 trillion problem. While government debt is an important tool to generate economic growth and ensure the day-to-day functioning of a country, how long can debt levels rise before the road runs out?
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White papersSwap spreads: analysis, challenges and outlook
Swap spreads, key indicators of liquidity stress and risk aversion, play a crucial role for insurers. Beyond measuring price differentials between sovereign and corporate bonds, they directly influence hedging decisions, asset-liability management (ALM) strategies and insurer returns under Solvency II.
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White papersDon’t be fooled by the headlines, credit still looks good
Despite the headlines, this remains a positive environment for credit.
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White papersFive factors to watch in multi-sector credit
While uncertainty remains high, the current macroeconomic environment has created a supportive backdrop for multi-sector credit, with yields likely to remain elevated as inflation lingers above central bank targets. Looking further out, our data suggest we should continue to expect positive growth and slowly falling inflation.
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White papersPost-pandemic peripheral banks’ prospects
What are peripheral banks’ prospects post-pandemic? Premier Miton’s Head of Fixed Income, Lloyd Harris, and Toby Williams, Credit Analyst, comment on their remarkable resilience and growth. Read their latest views on banks operating in non-core European countries such as Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Greece. What does looking back in history tell us about these banks? What can we expect next?
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White papersEmerging Market Debt Outlook: All Roads Lead to the US
This year, we are looking to the US to drive the market’s direction. We believe the US economy will continue to soften, which will spur the Fed to cut rates three times. In other words, that soft landing that we were expecting last year will likely materialise this year. When rates are lower, the USD typically weakens. And this creates a goldilocks scenario for Emerging Market Debt.
