All Fixed Income articles – Page 11
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VideoWhat’s the outlook for US high-yield bonds?
Growth forecasts for 2026 are generally being revised up for US companies as the benefits of deregulation and fiscal measures in the One Big Beautiful Bill start coming through, underpinning a still resilient setup for the high-yield fixed income market. Accordingly, default rates should remain in a manageable 1-3% range – well below long-term averages.
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White papersDebts, deficits and disruptors: Revisiting the opportunity in government bonds
Focus over the past decade has been heavily concentrated on credit markets, however, we believe there is an often overlooked opportunity in the government bond market that may warrant further attention. As much as 2022 bruised investors, with the big correction seen in government bond markets as interest rates rose rapidly, we believe now may be a good time to revisit the asset class in both developed and emerging markets, particularly as credit markets become less exciting.
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White papersPositioning for growth: 2026 Outlook for Emerging Market Equities and Fixed Income
Emerging markets (EM) include countries that span the whole gamut of policy quality, growth dynamics and political cycles, leading to a diverse and dynamic investment universe. Many EM countries currently have stronger monetary credibility, healthier balance sheets and better inflation control than some developed markets. EM investment opportunities span multiple return drivers from domestic consumption and digitalization to sovereign credit reforms and local interest rate cycles.
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White papers2026 inflation outlook: Navigating uncertainty
The year ahead looks set for a more balanced, although not necessarily benign, inflationary backdrop, even as the full impact of the US trade tariffs has yet to materialise in prices. For investors returns are more likely to come from income carry and specific exposure to inflation risk.
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White papersAI Meets EMD: Short-Term Match, Longer-Term Friction?
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to provide a tailwind for commodity and manufacturing exporters in emerging markets. That said, the emerging market (EM) service sector’s lower contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as well as a lack of research and development, and the presence of infrastructure and AI private investment bottlenecks, could cap productivity gains over time versus developed markets. We explore the dynamics in this article.
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PodcastTracking the trends in a time of rupture - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions
After a flurry of headlines and announcements from the annual World Economic Forum in Davos in January, one key message is likely to survive after most of the speeches have been long-forgotten; The world is facing a rupture in the international order.
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White papersThe future of fixed income
Fixed income has been transformed by advances in market structure, trading technology, and portfolio design-and the pace of change continues to accelerate. These developments are expanding what the asset class can deliver for institutional investors.
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White papersEmerging market debt: strength and selectivity amid global shifts
Emerging market fundamentals remain robust, but broader global macroeconomic developments are leading us to a more selective approach to positioning portfolios.
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White papersEmerging market local-currency bonds continue to look bright in 2026
Despite our reduced conviction in a weaker USD for 2026, we believe emerging market (EM) local-currency bonds remain well-positioned. Ongoing disinflation in EM economies not only supports EM currencies but should also enable some EM central banks to cut interest rates in 2026. We believe EM FX can perform well even with a sideways USD given the healthy state of external accounts in most EM countries.
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White papersDynamic Global Bonds — investing across the cycle
Despite geopolitical strains, elevated borrowing, and shifting policy dynamics, the global economy has shown notable resilience over the past 12 months. Valuations across major asset classes (including equities, gold and high yield credit) remain elevated, even as several macroeconomic indicators point to potential softening beneath the surface. We believe these tensions highlight the importance of a flexible and globally diversified fixed income approach, one that can adapt to rapidly evolving conditions across markets, sectors, and currencies.
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White papersStepping up a gear: Top 10 questions on real estate markets in 2026
2025 was a year of significant uncertainty, fueling recessionary fears and caution in investing. Global economic and geopolitical uncertainty led to market volatility. This year, we begin by reviewing the impact and how the real estate market is being affected.
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White papers2026 Private Infrastructure Outlook
Outlines growth drivers for private infrastructure in 2026, led by energy transition, data centers, and digitalization.
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White papersFederal Reserve Chair Nomination: Kevin Warsh
Looks at what a potential Kevin Warsh nomination could mean for Fed policy direction and market expectations.
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White papersBuilding resilience with flexible fixed income opportunities
The global economy enters 2026 with resilience. Growth forecasts have been revised upward – the International Monetary Fund now projects a global expansion of 3.2% in 2025, buoyed by a rebound in activity, despite ongoing trade frictions.
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White papersFixed Income Investing: Living in the now
If the future keeps bond investors awake at night, the present is complicated too.
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VideoSpreads, value and our credit outlook
In a new video, our three heads of fixed income discuss credit spreads, dispersion, and the widening gap in quality and duration between high yield and investment grade – and what this all means for credit markets moving forward.
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White papersThe case for infrastructure debt: Stable income in a changing world
Infrastructure underpins the 21st century global economy. From power networks and digital connectivity to renewable energy and social assets, infrastructure provides critical services with long-term demand drivers. These assets are often supported by regulated frameworks or long-term contracts that deliver returns through economic cycles.
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White papersEmerging Market Debt Outlook: Enduring Strength
Emerging market debt had a strong 2025, supported by solid fundamentals and policy credibility. Though risks persist, we see continued opportunity as EM inflation falls, policy rates ease, and currencies remain undervalued. In a world of uncertainty, EM continues to offer value and diversification benefits. Find out why we’re optimistic about the months ahead.
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White papersNavigating uncertainty: The case for active in fixed income
Benjamin Franklin said “the only thing certain in life is death and taxes”. We might add ‘market uncertainty’ to that. From the pandemic to the trade war, investors are constantly having to adapt. When volatility and uncertainty are the watchwords of the day, active management in fixed income investing could be more important than ever.
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White papers2026 Fixed Income Default Study: Proprietary analysis conducted by our dedicated team of career credit analysts
We’ve just published our 2026 Fixed Income Default Study covering global high yield, Asia and emerging markets.
