All Fixed Income articles – Page 12
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White papersHigh Yield: Investing in a transformed credit ecosystem
The structural evolution of the high yield market, driven by a transformed borrower universe, improved liquidity, stronger fundamentals, and a more diverse array of financing alternatives, has reshaped this asset class into something very different from its origins.
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White papersQ4 2025 Investment Grade Corporate Market Review and Outlook
The U.S. fixed income market demonstrated considerable resilience in the face of persistent economic uncertainty and a U.S. government shutdown. Fourth quarter returns within the investment grade credit space were mixed though, with excess returns modestly negative (-0.02% excess return) and total returns that were positive (0.87% total return) – supported by a dovish Federal Reserve policy stance, expectations for rate cuts and strong investor appetite for relatively attractive yields.
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White papersThe Ultimate ‘GPT’: Is AI Game-Changing for the Macro Picture?
We anticipate moderate impacts in the near term, but will look for more profound shifts—albeit with some delay—as the years unfold.
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White papersWhy choose euro fixed income?
Euro fixed income has a wide range of performance drivers that can enhance portfolio diversification. Credit spreads are tight, but there are still opportunities to capture historically absolute high yields. With eurozone inflation at target, growth resilient, and a positive fiscal profile relative to other developed economies, fundamentals are solid.
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White papersMacro brief: Five questions on the European Central Bank – will it really hike interest rates in 2026?
Given her view that inflation risks in the euro area are higher than expected, economist Beth Beckett suspects it will not be long before the European Central Bank adopts a hawkish bias and she has pencilled in a rate hike in late 2026.
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White papersA Validation Study of Catastrophe Bond Losses Over Time
We explore the relative historical performance of catastrophe bonds in relation to various trigger types.
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VideoWhat’s the outlook for US high-yield bonds?
Growth forecasts for 2026 are generally being revised up for US companies as the benefits of deregulation and fiscal measures in the One Big Beautiful Bill start coming through, underpinning a still resilient setup for the high-yield fixed income market. Accordingly, default rates should remain in a manageable 1-3% range – well below long-term averages.
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White papersDebts, deficits and disruptors: Revisiting the opportunity in government bonds
Focus over the past decade has been heavily concentrated on credit markets, however, we believe there is an often overlooked opportunity in the government bond market that may warrant further attention. As much as 2022 bruised investors, with the big correction seen in government bond markets as interest rates rose rapidly, we believe now may be a good time to revisit the asset class in both developed and emerging markets, particularly as credit markets become less exciting.
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White papersPositioning for growth: 2026 Outlook for Emerging Market Equities and Fixed Income
Emerging markets (EM) include countries that span the whole gamut of policy quality, growth dynamics and political cycles, leading to a diverse and dynamic investment universe. Many EM countries currently have stronger monetary credibility, healthier balance sheets and better inflation control than some developed markets. EM investment opportunities span multiple return drivers from domestic consumption and digitalization to sovereign credit reforms and local interest rate cycles.
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White papers2026 inflation outlook: Navigating uncertainty
The year ahead looks set for a more balanced, although not necessarily benign, inflationary backdrop, even as the full impact of the US trade tariffs has yet to materialise in prices. For investors returns are more likely to come from income carry and specific exposure to inflation risk.
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White papersAI Meets EMD: Short-Term Match, Longer-Term Friction?
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to provide a tailwind for commodity and manufacturing exporters in emerging markets. That said, the emerging market (EM) service sector’s lower contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as well as a lack of research and development, and the presence of infrastructure and AI private investment bottlenecks, could cap productivity gains over time versus developed markets. We explore the dynamics in this article.
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PodcastTracking the trends in a time of rupture - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions
After a flurry of headlines and announcements from the annual World Economic Forum in Davos in January, one key message is likely to survive after most of the speeches have been long-forgotten; The world is facing a rupture in the international order.
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White papersThe future of fixed income
Fixed income has been transformed by advances in market structure, trading technology, and portfolio design-and the pace of change continues to accelerate. These developments are expanding what the asset class can deliver for institutional investors.
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White papersEmerging market debt: strength and selectivity amid global shifts
Emerging market fundamentals remain robust, but broader global macroeconomic developments are leading us to a more selective approach to positioning portfolios.
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White papersEmerging market local-currency bonds continue to look bright in 2026
Despite our reduced conviction in a weaker USD for 2026, we believe emerging market (EM) local-currency bonds remain well-positioned. Ongoing disinflation in EM economies not only supports EM currencies but should also enable some EM central banks to cut interest rates in 2026. We believe EM FX can perform well even with a sideways USD given the healthy state of external accounts in most EM countries.
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White papersDynamic Global Bonds — investing across the cycle
Despite geopolitical strains, elevated borrowing, and shifting policy dynamics, the global economy has shown notable resilience over the past 12 months. Valuations across major asset classes (including equities, gold and high yield credit) remain elevated, even as several macroeconomic indicators point to potential softening beneath the surface. We believe these tensions highlight the importance of a flexible and globally diversified fixed income approach, one that can adapt to rapidly evolving conditions across markets, sectors, and currencies.
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White papersStepping up a gear: Top 10 questions on real estate markets in 2026
2025 was a year of significant uncertainty, fueling recessionary fears and caution in investing. Global economic and geopolitical uncertainty led to market volatility. This year, we begin by reviewing the impact and how the real estate market is being affected.
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White papers2026 Private Infrastructure Outlook
Outlines growth drivers for private infrastructure in 2026, led by energy transition, data centers, and digitalization.
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White papersFederal Reserve Chair Nomination: Kevin Warsh
Looks at what a potential Kevin Warsh nomination could mean for Fed policy direction and market expectations.
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White papersBuilding resilience with flexible fixed income opportunities
The global economy enters 2026 with resilience. Growth forecasts have been revised upward – the International Monetary Fund now projects a global expansion of 3.2% in 2025, buoyed by a rebound in activity, despite ongoing trade frictions.
