All Fixed Income articles – Page 3
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White papersEmerging Divergence
While central banks are all cutting, rate trajectories for the US, Europe and the UK seem contrary to underlying economic conditions. Correlations are high between Treasuries and European government bonds, but intra-European opportunities are emerging.
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White papersEuropean high yield: default rate coming down
Our par-weighted default rate forecast for European High Yield (EHY) is 3.8% for the forward 12-month period and 7.2% for the forward 24-month period. Excluding hybrid issuers, the default rate increases to 4.5% over 12 months and 8.5% over 24 months. This compares to a LTM (last 12 months) default rate for Europe, to April 2024, of 4.1%1, and a recent peak through the Covid-19 pandemic of 6.9%.
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White papersQ4 2024 Outlooks: Implications of Rate Cuts, Geopolitics, and Economic Uncertainty
In delivering on expectations for a policy pivot as the summer came to a close, the Federal Reserve joined its global peers in kicking off a new rate-cut cycle at a time when global economies are experiencing uneven growth and an uncertain path ahead. Meanwhile, anxieties have seemingly intensified with US elections in the fall, war in the Middle East, and persistent tensions between global powers, all of which place geopolitics right in the middle of the investment outlook.
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White papersNo Autumn chills for Global Investment Grade Corporate fundamentals
Investment grade (IG) indices remain close to recent tights. Similarly, corporate fundamentals are in an extremely strong position. Our credit work looks to identify where there is a mismatch between the fundamental expectations and valuations of issuers, on a name-by-name basis. We also aggregate the single name expectations each quarter to give a view of the market as a whole.
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White papersUS election positioning – we could get fireworks!
Everyone’s favourite question at the moment, how do you position into the US election? Here’s what we think for fixed income.
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BlogThe ECB Cuts as all Indicators Point Down
The ECB’s Governing Council remained true to its mantra of “data dependence” at its October policy meeting, choosing to cut the main policy rate by 25 bps to 3.25%.
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White papersFixed Income Perspectives Q4 2024
Quarterly macro and market insights from Capital Group’s fixed income team
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White papersEuropean utilities: prepared for the spending storm
Despite huge growth in demand, costs squeezes and supply constraints around raw materials and capacity are limiting expected returns in renewables development
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White papersPositioning EMD ahead of the US election
If Kamala Harris wins November’s vote, the status quo is unlikely to change significantly, but should Donald Trump triumph the implications for foreign policy are likely to be far-reaching.
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White papersThe three things every engager should know
What three lessons have the SDG Engagement High Yield Credit team learned in the half decade since inception?
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White papersAll eyes on inflation
“We believe the Federal Reserve will weigh the inflation numbers in the context of the weakening labour markets. We expect the Fed to continue to ease monetary policy.”
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White papersSDG Engagement High Yield Credit: 2024 H1 Report
Five years since the launch of our SDG Engagement High Yield Credit strategy, the investment team provide a full rundown of how their interactions with portfolio companies have created change.
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White papersA local approach to European private debt
European private debt is a diverse and growing market. Local expertise is essential to making the most of the opportunities on offer, particularly in the often overlooked lower-mid-market segment.
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White papersPrivate credit’s role in mid-market opportunities
Upper middle-market corporate credit dynamics bring both challenges and opportunities. Expert insights reveal how the convergence of private credit and public markets is influencing investment strategies.
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BlogThe Impact of the U.S. Election on the Muni Market
This blog post covers key questions about the potential impact of the U.S. elections on the municipal bond market.
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White papersImpact of US elections on emerging market currencies
The results of the US presidential elections in November are set to have wide-ranging implications on the US dollar and emerging market (EM) exchange rates. In this piece, we examine what the outcome of the election could mean for EM currencies, through the impact on tariffs, sanctions, US fiscal policy, unorthodox economic policies and immigration.
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White papersSlow-speed crash? Problems for the European auto sector pile up
Healthy cash balances built up over the past three years will be tested as firms attempt to weather the four-pronged oncoming storm of labour relations, EV uptake, emissions regulations and China
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - October 2024
Capital markets whipsawed between a weakening US labour market and hopes that the Fed would successfully steer the economy towards a soft landing. Markets are optimistically interpreting the latest policy action, which could potentially boost consumption and investment. The other narrative is that the Fed would not have implemented a big cut without having apprehensions on the economic front.
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BlogThe Case for Going Global, in Pictures
We’ve made the case—here, here, and here—that it’s generally a good time for fixed income given bonds’ revaluation to yields well above the secular stagnation levels that existed prior to the 2022 bear market. These higher yields, combined with the shift by most developed market central banks from rate hikes to cuts, suggest that this sleeper bull market is set to continue. But how does global fixed income fit within this context?
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White papersExploring the full spectrum of fixed income strategies
Investors have traditionally thought of there being two primary investment styles, namely Active and Passive (or Indexing). But this binary view oversimplifies the new reality. Instead, it is better to think of investment styles as sitting along a continuum, where they become progressively more “active,” from index replication to unconstrained.
