All Fixed Income articles – Page 4
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White papersRobust fundamentals should prop up emerging market debt
Many emerging market economies have robust fundamentals: strong external demand, stabilising inflation and monetary policy easing, While their GDP growth is expected to outpace that of their developed market peers, there could be some headwinds in the first few months of 2025 from renewed uncertainty around the US Federal Reserve’s rate cutting cycle, the Trump administration’s policy agenda, the outlook for geopolitics and a strong US dollar.
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White papersAssessing Sovereigns’ Progress Towards Net Zero for Fixed Income Investors
Is the US on track to achieve net zero emissions by 2050?
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White papersAn Early Look at the Implications of Tariffs and a Trade War
After the trade war’s opening salvoes, tensions seem set to last for some time.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - February 2025
Markets: a tug of war between inflation fears and optimism
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White papersIG Credit – Be selective, even amid good fundamentals
While uncertainties remain, we retain our positive outlook, supported by resilient growth in the US, steady investor demand and a supportive monetary easing cycle in Europe. As for the fundamentals, the peak in investment-grade (IG) credit quality for this cycle is now behind us. Nonetheless, both US and European IG bond issuers are still generally in good shape: They now have bigger reserves of cash, lower net debt and better net margins.
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White papersU.S. Housing Chartbook
The U.S. consumer remains strong on the back of a healthy labor market and inflation is moving back to target, albeit slowly.
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White papersFiscal expansion fears loom over debt markets
Ballooning public debt is forcing many countries to overhaul fiscal rules, which could have a significant impact on credit markets in the months ahead.
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White papers2025 Emerging market debt outlook: Stick to income and relative value in a disruptive year
As 2024 is now behind us, we are reflecting on a year of political and geopolitical upheaval which culminated in the election of Donald Trump in the U.S., whose disruptive agenda hangs over emerging market (EM) investors’ heads. In this outlook, we flesh out our current view of the world, as seen from an EM lens, and highlight a few key investment themes.
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White papersNavigating interest rate uncertainty on the bond market during a second Trump term
US bond rates are a significant risk driver for institutional investors such as pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds who typically invest roughly 30% of their allocations into bonds and other fixed income classes. With Trump’s election win, we must navigate the potential impacts of his policies on the bond market. Given the contradictory nature of his suggested policies, we see the potential for a new level of interest rate uncertainty driven by a mix of inflationary and growth pressures causing increased volatility in the bond market.
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White papersEmerging market debt outlook for 2025: Ready for Trump 2.0?
Looking ahead to 2025, the macro environment, in theory, sets the stage for a friendly backdrop in EM, especially given continued disinflation, which should allow most major central banks to ease rates throughout the year. However, the incoming US administration poses several risks to EMs.
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White papersAnticipation to Reality: Credit Markets for European Insurers in 2025
Mapping a way through a year of tight credit spreads and likely regional divergence in policy and growth.
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White papersFixed Income: Be Prepared for Policy-Driven Volatility
In the wake of electoral shifts, policy changes could add to market turbulence, creating new risks but also opportunities.
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PodcastFixed Income Moves in 2025
As the United States embarks on a new administration, markets eagerly prepare for what is to come regarding domestic policy, international policy, tariffs, and geopolitics. But how will the Fixed Income asset class move through these new pathways? What factors are at play regarding fiscal and monetary policy? And how can investors prepare for the year ahead?
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BlogAs ECB Policy Gradually Diverges, Impatience May Loom
The ECB expectedly cut rates during the January meeting and did not convey any urgency for the need to cut rates more aggressively in 2025.
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White papersAsset Allocation Committee Outlook, 1Q 2025 - A Delicate Balance
“Overall, we anticipate a supportive backdrop for risk assets, as reflected in our broad asset-class views… The balance is delicate, however, and the risks are piled up on both sides.”
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White papersBank of Japan Rate Hike to 17-year High Portends More
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.5%, the highest in 17 years, aiming for a balanced approach to avoid market volatility, yen weakening, and triggering sharp market repricing.
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White papersThematic Engagement: 2024 Scope 3 Emissions
Scope 3 emissions are becoming increasingly important as issuers face growing pressure to report and reduce these emissions. In our latest report, we examine how issuers across public fixed-income and private credit sectors are tackling Scope 3 data challenges and setting decarbonization targets.
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White papersThe Vulnerability—and Potential Value Creation—in UK Assets
Recent Gilt yield spikes highlight UK’s fiscal vulnerability, driven by stagflationary risks and global shifts in investor sentiment.
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White papersFixed Income Outlook – Come what may
Once gain the US bond market will lead global fixed income markets in 2025, with a strong US economy but uncertainty over the new administration’s policies setting the tone. We expect the US economy, over time, to pivot towards structurally slower growth and stickier core inflation. This more ‘stagflationary’ trajectory may result in the Federal Reserve taking a more cautious approach towards further rate cuts.
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White papersWill US bond markets outperform Europe and China in 2025?
This quarter’s summary of what to look out for in fixed income
