A rewiring of the global economy is forcing investors and policymakers to proceed with caution. Unpredictable policymaking is unhelpful for the economy and triggering big market swings. But there are hopeful signs too. Major economies have so far proved resilient. Also, while the US administration’s priorities were tariffs and security, planned tax cuts and deregulation may mitigate trade levies’ impact on growth.
A rewiring of the global economy is forcing investors and policymakers to proceed with caution. Such prudence is justified. There may be superficial parallels with the trade shock delivered by the pandemic, but limited lessons can be drawn from the temporary disruptions that occurred at the start of the decade. Today, the US administration’s approach to commerce, security and international relations is ushering in structural changes that will outlast its tenure.
“Private markets: infrastructure and private debt will likely continue to attract flows and may deliver performance. A bottoming process should gain traction for real estate and private equity over H2.”