Hedge fund (HF) performance remained strong in H1 2026. Industry alpha also stayed elevated. The quality of HF returns, combined with investors’ search for diversification and the headline noise surrounding private assets, has continued to attract flows into the industry.
In US equities, recent weeks have shown that despite low market volatility, single stock volatility is rising, as investors increase scrutiny. Market expectations for the upcoming earnings season are high, leaving the market vulnerable to some fragility in case of disappointment.
Tensions in the Middle East have resurfaced, underscoring the “fragile” nature of the recent de-escalation. The latest round of attacks may be tied to Iran’s effort to preserve its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Trump may become more willing to escalate tensions while oil prices remain subdued. Still, both sides have reasons to remain at the negotiation table, as the US approaches midterm elections and Iran would benefit from economic relief.