All Asset allocation articles
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White papersThe shift in how the world sees farmland: An asset that sits between categories
Investment categories tend to last longer than the conditions that created them. Real estate, infrastructure and private markets were shaped in a period when natural systems felt predictable and globalisation appeared steady. Those assumptions carried portfolios for decades.
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White papersLNG Shock – but in a war, someone is always making money
In this note, Jim Wright, Fund Manager of the Premier Miton Global Infrastructure Income Fund, examines the reported damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG terminal - a facility responsible for around 20% of global imported LNG - and the shockwaves it has sent through energy markets. He also highlights how rapidly expanding LNG capacity in the US and Canada positions North America to play an increasingly important role in supporting global supply in the years ahead.
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VideoContingent capital; a strong case in today’s fixed income market
In this edition of Talking Markets Lloyd Harris, Head of Fixed Income at Premier Miton, discusses how stronger bank capital positions and post‑crisis regulation continue to reshape the contingent capital landscape. He shares why CoCos are increasingly compelling for income‑focused investors, offering a robustness that has held up well through recent market stresses.
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White papersBeyond Bonds: The role Hedge Funds could play in portfolios
Investors over the past few years have had to grapple with elevated geopolitical challenges and uncertainty both over the direction and level of interest rates across the globe. While equity markets have attained record highs, albeit buffeted by the occasional bouts of volatility the same cannot be said for fixed income markets.
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White papersOut of the Black Box: Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs via Conditional Probabilities
Autoregressive LLMs generate text by sampling from estimated probability distributions over the next token, conditional on preceding context. We leverage these conditional probabilities to construct an entropy-based measure of prediction uncertainty, which we term inner confidence. Predictions with higher inner confidence are systematically more accurate.
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White papersPure momentum
Momentum trading strategies exploit return persistence, but conventional past-year cumulative-return measures generate a noisy signal that attenuates performance. We propose a pure momentum strategy that identifies trends directly from daily returns. Our method reduces volatility, tail risk, and transaction costs while enhancing profitability. Performance is primarily driven by long positions in winners, supporting theories postulating overconfidence. The bad news, instead, appears to be incorporated more slowly. In particular, we show that omitting the most recent month is unnecessary to identify winners.
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PodcastIran: A temporary shock or a persistent shift? - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions
The war in Iran has shaken markets and is threatening the stability of the global economy. As energy prices surge and the news flow comes thick and fast, this month’s host, Silvia Di Silvio, speaks to Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to hear her thinking on the crisis and how it is changing Amundi’s investment views.
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White papersIntegrating Geopolitical Risk Into Low Volatility Factor Construction
Financial markets respond not only to quantitative fundamentals but also to narratives that shape investor perceptions of risk, particularly during periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. While the low volatility factor has demonstrated robust risk adjusted performance across markets, its construction is typically static and does not account for narrative-driven fluctuations in risk.
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WebinarWebinar replay: How global macro factors and geopolitical events are feeding through to debt markets
Lloyd Harris, Head of Fixed Income at Premier Miton, looks at the key forces shaping debt markets today, from global macro trends to geopolitical developments, and how these influences feed into the team’s strategic investment approach. He also outlines his outlook for the months ahead and highlights where he sees the most compelling opportunities across fixed income.
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White papersLeveraged Finance Asset Allocation Insights: Markets Hit an AI Inflection Point.
The leveraged finance market is currently grappling with an “AI inflection point,” where the early promise of greater efficiency is giving way to a more uncertain outlook, with potential AI-related pressures on revenues and margins. This shift has introduced a sense of anxiety as investors increasingly scrutinize the actual cost of adoption on an issuer-by-issuer basis.
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White papersFrom Transition to Physical Risk: Rethinking Portfolio Management
Over the past fifteen years, responsible investment has evolved, shifting from broad ESG scores to more granular climate risk management. Transition risk has dominated, with portfolio decarbonization anchored in standardized carbon intensity metrics and, more recently, complemented by measures of green intensity.
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White papersGeopolitical Risk and Asset Pricing Across Market Regimes
This paper examines how geopolitical risk (GPR) is transmitted across global financial markets by analyzing its effects on equities, sovereign bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities. Moving beyond single-regime and single-dimension approaches, the study adopts a two-regime Markov-switching framework to capture the state-dependent pricing of geopolitical shocks under low- and high-volatility market conditions.
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White papersLet your bonds work smarter
Active management can turn fixed income into a more purposeful allocation
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White papersThree asset classes for European insurers to watch in 2026
As insurers enter 2026, the investment landscape remains challenging. Sovereign yield curves have steepened, credit spreads continue to trade near historical tights, and inflation uncertainty persists. At the same time, equity valuations remain elevated, while geopolitical and macro risks add further uncertainty.
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White papersImplications of US-Israel strikes on Iran
What is the nature of the attack on Iran and how could the situation evolve?
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - March 2026
Since the start of the year, several of the key convictions we highlighted in our outlook have been playing out, and some trends have clearly accelerated. Markets have remained well supported, with significant rotations at country, sector and stock levels.
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White papersUS earnings stay strong
The US earnings season reinforces our view of a broadening rally into real‑economy, signalling an ongoing — albeit non-linear — rotation towards these sectors.
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White papersBack to basics: Why the time is right for multi-asset investing
Multi-asset investing is all about diversification. Diversification – sometimes referred to as the only free lunch in finance – embeds the idea that if a portfolio holds various asset classes, each with their own return drivers, the outcome is a smoother return profile.
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White papersThe evolving landscape of climate investing
Climate change and the energy transition are multi-decadal themes that are shaping the world we live in, with wide-ranging implications for investors. But the question of how to incorporate climate change into investment strategies is not a straightforward one. Multiple avenues are open to asset owners looking to manage risk, allocate capital and set climate-related goals.
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White papersThe Great Risk Reversal: Why Emerging Markets in 2026
Emerging markets (EM) have undergone a structural shift, with stronger external balances, rising credit quality, and broadening earnings growth reshaping their risk profile and investment appeal in 2026.
