Covid-19 progressively moving global in March was a game changer for the global economy and financial markets. As policies responses to contain the damages of the virus became bolder, we re-assessed the narrative of our base and alternative scenarios. We changed the probability in favour of the upsides scenario to 30% from 15%, while the downside scenario moved from a probability of 30% down to 20% and the central scenario from a probability of 55% to 50%.
Heading towards a sharp contraction in H1; H2 recovery shaped by the duration of the crisis and by the effectiveness of the unprecedented policy response, once the post-containment normalization phase starts.While a state of emergency has been declared by the President, almost all states are implementing emergency measures with various degrees of severity, from preventing gatherings to statewide quarantines.
The Eurozone’s architecture does not allow it to contain all the risks arising from the current shock. Recourse to an European Stability Mechanism (ESM) credit line without strong conditionality is a de facto first step towards debt mutualisation. Looking ahead, this could pave the way to a European budget and a common debt.