Outlooks – Page 2
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Global Emerging Markets Equity Outlook, H2 2024
In this report, we discuss noteworthy developments in emerging markets this year that have reinforced our view about the medium- and long-term prospects for the asset class. We see various tangible additional drivers of future growth.
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Fed easing: Fear rate cuts in a recession, not in a soft landing
History suggests that the Fed’s success in piloting a soft versus hard landing will play a key role in dictating the path for U.S. equities. For example, in 1985 and 1995, rate cuts supported strong equity gains as recessions were avoided, while in 2001 and 2007, even aggressive easing couldn’t prevent steep market declines amid economic downturns. Today, the absence of glaring household or corporate balance sheet vulnerabilities means Fed easing should be enough to prevent recession, and should provide investors some optimism for the future of the market.
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What Fed rate cuts mean for U.S. equities: A historical perspective
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell has all but confirmed that the rate-cutting cycle will commence at the next FOMC meeting on September 18. Financial markets are currently pricing in 100 basis points (bps) of cuts this year—potentially equivalent to a 50bps cut in September and 25bps cuts in both November and December—as the Fed gears up to ward off recession. Its success in piloting a soft versus hard landing will play a key role in dictating the path for U.S. equities.
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Why Japan Bounced Back
A huge market shock and a prime Minister heading for the exit—does any of what happened in August affect the long-term investment story for Japan?
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ESG Thema #17 - Investing in gender equality: Momentum is growing
Over the last century, women have acquired the right to vote in almost every country, have entered the job market and political bodies, and have gained their independence, particularly financial. Equal rights have thus been achieved in society.
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Growth of the East
The East’s economic power has been building for decades. Buoyed initially by Japan’s industrialization, the region was boosted further by the modernization of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, alongside the rapid rise of China.
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How UK equities have performed in rate-cutting cycles
The BoE has started cutting interest rates—what does this mean for the UK equity market? Franklin Templeton Institute’s Chris Galipeau and Lukasz Kalwak explore prior rate-cutting cycles for answers.
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How global equities performed in prior Federal Reserve easing cycles
As the Federal Reserve gears up for a rate cut, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Chris Galipeau and Lukasz Kalwak revisit their asset-market performance study. This time, they focus on the global equity market impact.
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Article Shopping around: The outlook for US retail
While remaining broadly cautious on the US retail sector, the credit team explain why they are focusing on names with turnaround stories where they see upside catalysts and better relative value.
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Equitorial: A practical pathway to net zero
Investors increasingly recognise the urgency of addressing climate change. Many, particularly in the institutional investor space, have already set net-zero goals and commitments. In our latest Equitorial report we ask: Can good intentions be translated into effective action?
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Basel III Endgame and the “Reg Cap” Opportunity
Tighter bank capital regulation looks set to make U.S. banks adopt a risk-transfer practice that has long been common in Europe—and attractive to investors.
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GEMs ESG Materiality, H1 2024
In the latest issue we shine the spotlight on South Korea’s ‘Corporate Value-Up Programme’, which seeks to improve corporate governance in the country. We also provide an update on our voting and engagement activity.
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Geopolitical risks and FX reserves
In this short video, Gary Smith, Client Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income covers: What are FX reserves, and why should we care how they are managed? What triggered the idea to write the article What do geopolitical risks mean for central bank FX reserves managers? Why is self-insurance desirable? What are the implications of fixed income markets?
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Latin America’s Long-Term Potential
Portfolio Manager Jeremy Sutch, CFA, and Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor assess the issues besetting the region’s key markets—from domestic challenges to geopolitical headwinds—as well as their structural strengths, and whether prospects may brighten with the onset of a U.S. rate-cutting cycle.
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Tier One Interview: Susan Kasser
In conversation with Jay Judas, CEO of Life Insurance Strategies Group, Susan Kasser, Head of Private Debt, discusses the ins and outs of private debt, why PPLI and private debt pair well together, and more.
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Carried Away
The most important trigger for the recent equity sell-off wasn’t the U.S. jobs data, or the Fed, or even mega-cap tech earnings, but the Bank of Japan. We could talk about the recent U.S. nonfarm payrolls report in this week’s Perspectives: Was it really as bad as all that? We could dissect the last U.S. Federal Reserve meeting: Should the central bank have cut rates, and did it just commit a significant policy error?
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Understanding how social and sustainability bonds can have real impact
For fixed-income investors seeking to put their money into assets that can bring benefits to less well-off people and communities, social bonds and sustainability bonds can offer effective solutions, write Malika Takhtayeva and Xuan Sheng Ou Yong, of BNP Paribas Asset Management
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Modi’s Growth Agenda Flexes to Meet Needs of Allies
Portfolio manager Swagato Ghosh explains how India’s post-election budget may have placated concerns for now over the viability of Modi’s growth strategy under the new coalition government.
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Making sense of market volatility
Global markets have been whipsawed by a series of sharp blows in the last few days, mainly centering around concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. Our view remains that the strength of household and corporate balance sheets implies recession is unlikely, but we acknowledge that risks are building. To help decipher and contextualize the current market reaction, Chief Global Strategist, Seema Shah, and Equities Chief Investment Officer, George Maris, provided some clarity into the current situation and their expectations for the remainder of 2024.