Will markets in 2026 show the same resilience? What is the legacy of disruptive trade wars? How will fiscal expansion and the AI revolution affect investment and innovation? What part will real assets and private markets play?

To answer these questions and more, Generali Investments’ specialist, affiliated asset management firms share their views on the risks and opportunities for the year ahead.

The Big Picture

The Macro and Market Research team at Generali Asset Management introduce the key themes they’re monitoring for 2026.

Despite the turbulence – around the US ‘Liberation Day’ and private credit strains in Q4 – 2025 proved positive for financial asset performance. Will the global economy continue to show resilience in 2026, in the face of greater fragmentation? The inflation path is also on our mind, especially in the US where the impact from tariffs remains uncertain. Fiscal dominance – and Fed independence – will be key for bonds and currencies. Our final pick is the AI and credit cycles: on or off?

A fragmented trade and world order

Tail risks surrounding ‘Liberation Day’ have moderated and global trade may extend its striking resilience. The one-year US-China truce through November 2026 has helped to ease trade uncertainties for now, alongside other bilateral US trade deals. But the agreements remain fragile and the increase in US tariffs to their highest levels in almost 100 years has upended world trade. In response, China is threatening to curb the export of rare earths and critical minerals, which could disrupt global supply chains. The strategic US-China rivalry is far from solved and will not leave the EU and other trading nations unscathed. Global trade is unlikely to falter but the decades of deeper global integration as a boost to global growth have clearly drawn to a close.

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