Outlooks
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White papersChurchill 2023 Sustainability Report
We are thrilled to present Churchill’s second annual Sustainability Report. Reflecting on the accomplishments of the past year, I am grateful for the many partnerships we’ve built. From collaborating with investors to refine our practices to engaging with organizations that provide invaluable insights to our investment teams, we are invigorated by the progress we have made together towards our sustainability goals.
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White papersCan the demand for critical minerals be met responsibly?
Decarbonising the economy requires a significant scaling up of green technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs), solar photovoltaics, wind turbines and grid-scale battery storage. All of which require significant mineral inputs. A deficit of these “critical minerals” – such as cobalt, copper, lithium, rare earth elements, graphite and nickel – raises supply risks that could constrain the pace and scale of the energy transition.
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White papersAll to Play for in 2024
In this PDI Q&A, Bryan High discusses the trends and dynamics likely to shape direct lending through the remainder of 2024.
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White papersHigh Yield: Scaling the Maturity Wall
The maturity wall facing high yield bond issuers has garnered much attention. But given the market’s short duration profile, lower prices and higher-quality relative to history, the reality facing issuers is less daunting.
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White papersThe Fifth Stage of Pocketbook Grief
Economic data has been resilient, but everyone seems unhappy—will the consumer cheer up in time to avoid triggering a recession?
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White papersTechnology Runs Through Asia
Across the “Golden Triangle” and beyond, Asian companies are forming a foundation for global technological growth and development.
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White papersMacro market monitor
The Macro Dashboard provides a quantitative snapshot of the state of the U.S. economy and markets. With a consistent scorecard, investment committees can use this tool to evaluate periodic changes in conditions, prioritize research and drive dialogue that ultimately results in better informed portfolio strategy.
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White papersOn My Mind: The first cut is the deepest
Where does the Fed go next after this week’s 50 basis point interest-rate cut? Thoughts from Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai.
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White papersFed’s 50 bp Cut Kickstarts Recalibration
In one of the more anticipated FOMC meetings in recent memory, the Federal Reserve kicked its easing cycle off with a 50-basis point cut which marks the recalibration of U.S. monetary policy.
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White papersConnecting the Dots: Misconceptions and opportunities in ABS
A misconception that asset-backed securities (ABS) is largely the experience that the US subprime market went through during the global financial crisis still exists. In this episode, Matt Wardle and Harry Bullamore dispel the misconceptions around ABS which, once cleared, pave the way for investors to allocate to it, consider the uniquely defensive aspects of the asset class and where it sits from an overall portfolio construction perspective.
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White papersMacroeconomic and financial market forecasts - September 2024
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 5 September 2024
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - September 2024
Topic of the Month - The JPY carry trade: what’s next?
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White papersThe JPY carry trade: what’s next?
A series of weak US data in July questioned the market narrative of a soft landing and brought back fears of recession. This was the main trigger, although a hawkish surprise from the BoJ undoubtedly added fuel to what turned out to be an unusually sharp unwinding of carry trades funded in JPY. The amount of exposure of these carry trades was at an all-time high due to the low level of overall market volatility and the volatility of the JPY itself. So is it over?
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White papersAddressing climate impacts and nature loss through real assets
The effects of climate change are a megatrend on a global scale, influencing the expected risk-return profile of real assets investments and the opportunity set for investors. The increasing frequency and severity of physical climate hazards, as well as nature loss resulting from changing ecosystems requires new ways of thinking about financial risk and return in real assets investments.
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White papersThe rise of semi-liquid secondaries funds
The secondary market in private equity consists of transactions where investors buy and sell existing private equity fund interests. In the first half of 2024, the global secondaries market had an estimated volume of USD 68 billion, which represents a 58% increase on the previous year’s 1H volume of USD 43 billion. The market can be broadly categorized into two main segments: GP-led secondaries and LP-led secondaries.
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White papersThe U.S. Election and Energy: More Than Meets the Eye
The presidential candidates have well-known policy profiles on energy, but how could they translate in the real world? The Biden-Harris administration has staked much of its political capital on the energy transition—curbing carbon emissions and encouraging the use of electric cars and renewable energy—while former President Donald Trump is known for his support of the fossil fuel industry and streamlining energy regulation.
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White papersBalance Is Critical for the Obstacles Ahead
Rising inflation may be behind us, but now a nervous market parses every data release for signs of recession. Regular readers know that, in early September, I hear the starting gun for the race to the end of the year. As we get back to our desks after summer breaks, focus turns to end-of-year portfolio results, and calendars fill to review the year’s achievements, lessons and progress, and to begin peering into the year to come.
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White papersUS election debate generates more political than policy buzz
The first debate between the two candidates running in the U.S. presidential race was a fractious exchange that shed little new light on policy details but is likely to be politically consequential.
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White papersRally broadening is underway
A mild US economic deceleration, interest rate cuts by the Fed and an improving earnings profile could further support the broadening of the rally outside the expensive US technology names.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - September 2024
When central banks are cutting rates and risks of a US recession are limited, we remain disciplined and mildly positive on risk assets.
