Following the US strike on Venezuela, growing threats against Greenland, and intensifying protests in Iran, we recap our expectations for geopolitics in 2026.
Geopolitics: it’s now all about power and might, but core interests will hold
Key Takeaways
- With multilateralism retreating, diversification is increasingly critical for investors.
- In a multipolar world where leverage comes from critical resources and military power, governments are prioritising resilience. AI and defence spending should remain supported despite high levels of public debt. The USD will remain the reserve currency given the lack of alternatives, but its status is likely to weaken as a wider set of alternatives emerges, supporting gold.
- New security alliances and trade deals are emerging despite intensifying economic friction as policymakers seek to compensate for the eroding global order. These will ensure global trade and investment continue to flow.
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