• With multilateralism retreating, diversification is increasingly critical for investors.
• In a multipolar world where leverage comes from critical resources and military power, governments are prioritising resilience. AI and defence spending should remain supported despite high levels of public debt. The USD will remain the reserve currency given the lack of alternatives, but its status is likely to weaken as a wider set of alternatives emerges, supporting gold.
• New security alliances and trade deals are emerging despite intensifying economic friction as policymakers seek to compensate for the eroding global order. These will ensure global trade and investment continue to flow.

Global Investment Views

Central banks easing into a thus-far resilient economy

The year gone by has been exceptional in some respects. Global equities touched new highs, and emerging market stocks reached close to their 2021 levels. All this happened despite the US administration’s somewhat unconventional policies, particularly on the trade front, leading to a phenomenal performance of safe-haven gold. 

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