Outlooks – Page 7
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White papersFixed Income Outlook – Not as planned
Another higher-than-expected US inflation number means the US Federal Reserve should be in no rush to cut rates before price pressures subside. With the risk of inflation continuing to surprise to the upside in the near term, we now expect benchmark 10-year yields to potentially retrace to 4.75%, at which point we would likely again go overweight duration.
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White papersForget the politics: Why election uncertainty won’t, and shouldn’t, put investors off the US
Everything about the United States is big – its market, its economy and the companies housed there. It is also continuing to confound investors’ expectations. Many anticipated it would slip into recession in 2023, but this never came to pass. Instead, according to the US Treasury, it delivered above average economic growth over the 12 months because of “growing economic output, labour market resilience, and slowing inflation”.
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White papersIndia: Unlocking the potential
In this latest Global Macro Shifts, India offers new economic and investment advantages, as both long-term reforms and recent, post-pandemic changes in the global economy combine fortuitously, according to Templeton Global Macro.
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White papersMunique: The Inefficiencies Driving Muni Alpha Opportunities
Active municipal bond managers have more flexibility to invest across a wider swath of the market and can add alpha by constructing portfolios that outperform their respective benchmarks.
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White papersAsset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q 2024
“The economic outlook may have improved, but large parts of the credit and equity markets are already priced for a soft landing.”
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White papersMapping global elections and what this means for investors
It’s a defining 12 months for the world we live in today and wake up to tomorrow as billions of people across more than 50 countries head to the polls in 2024, although not all national elections will be free and fair. Romil Patel looks at some of the key votes from the world’s oldest to its largest democracies, as well as emerging markets – and what this means for investors.
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White papersMacroeconomic and financial market forecasts - April 2024
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 12 April 2024
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - April 2024
”Market sentiment may remain positive if we don’t see an economic slowdown and inflation also doesn’t surprise. However, areas of excess have built up, and underscore the need to remain vigilant.”
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White papersCompanies and Climate change - An updated research application of the AIIB-Amundi CCIF*
The Climate Change Investment Framework (CCIF) was designed by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Amundi to tailor investment portfolios that actively consider alignment with the Paris Agreement. The CCIF considers the three dimensions of climate change mitigation and adaptation, and contribution to the transition to net zero.
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White papersImpact Opportunities Equity, Q1 2024
Financial inclusion is an essential part of ‘building back better’; not just as a moral imperative but as a significant economic opportunity which offers real benefits for society as a whole. In our latest quarterly report, the team highlight several companies breaking down the barriers to accessible and affordable finance.
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White papersBreadth and Balance
The economic outlook may have improved, but large parts of the credit and equity markets are fully valued.
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White papersThe Long View: Four megatrends to watch
Innovation is not just a buzzword — it is the lifeblood of investment success. It fuels growth, drives competitiveness and shapes the future of companies. But while innovation is essential, not all emerging trends are created equal.
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White papersWho will finance the green transition? Can central banks help?
”With public debt at unprecedented levels, it is difficult to see how governments could consider contributing any sizeable amounts.”
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White papersCapital Market Assumptions 2024
Last year we enhanced our Capital Market Assumptions approach by including a social dimension considering the impact of rebalancing labour / profits on earnings. This social component was added to the climate change assumptions introduced in 2022, which evaluate how the future trajectory of the energy transition will affect the key economic variables driving our forecasts (GDP growth, inflation, productivity, etc.), and the way we model asset class behaviour – with regards to earnings growth in particular.
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White papersRotations at play in equity markets
In 2024, the equity rally has weakened in the tech heavy Nasdaq Index which was the leader last year, now in favour of other regions. Large cap companies in the Eurozone and Japan posted double digit returns in Q1.
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White papersThe appeal of private assets in 2024
The macro environment in 2024 will likely spur demand for private assets from all types of investors in our view. In this higher-for-longer environment, private assets could continue to be a compelling source of risk-adjusted returns, income and diversification.
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White papersPortfolio construction themes
Like surfers bobbing in the ocean as they look for the perfect wave, many investors today believe better conditions will come if they just hold out long enough. But delaying too long could mean missing the ride entirely.
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White papersThe economy and markets
The risks of a U.S. and global recession have receded considerably after appearing elevated last year. Despite expectations for a material slowdown in growth over the course of 2023, economic data broadly surprised to the upside. Instead of flatlining, the U.S. economy grew more than 3%, while China expanded by over 5%. Both results outpaced consensus expectations.
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White papers2024 2Q outlook: Adapting to high tide
Originally written and recorded by a Jamaican trio in 1967, “The Tide Is High” made its biggest splash with the now-classic 1980 cover version that topped the charts around the world. Thematically simple, the song’s familiar chorus acknowledges challenging circumstances while expressing the narrator’s resilience (“I’m holding on”). It’s an apt soundtrack for today’s investors as they acclimate to a high-tide environment of their own.
