Capital Market Assumptions 2024

Last year we enhanced our Capital Market Assumptions approach by including a social dimension considering the impact of rebalancing labour / profits on earnings. This social component was added to the climate change assumptions introduced in 2022, which evaluate how the future trajectory of the energy transition will affect the key economic variables driving our forecasts (GDP growth, inflation, productivity, etc.), and the way we model asset class behaviour – with regards to earnings growth in particular.

Capital Market Assumptions 2024

This year, we have taken additional steps to answer our clients’ most relevant questions:

  • How is the climate scenario evolving amid the delays in climate policies?
  • How will artificial intelligence impact productivity?
  • What would be the impact of a carbon tax on economies and sectors in a stress test scenario?
  • How is the relative appeal of asset classes evolving and what could the risk / return profile look like for Emerging Market equity ex China?
  • What should Strategic Asset Allocation look like for the next decade?

We have also developed a completely new digital experience that will allow investors to navigate the full set of expected returns data in various currencies and delve into the main assumptions driving our asset class modelling process, which includes examples of optimised portfolios for Euro and USD investors with different risk profiles.

You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below