Outlooks – Page 3
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White papersMacroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - March 2024
”European PMI data diverge not only in terms of sectors, but also in terms of countries and sub-components.”
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - March 2024
“While we expect the Fed, Bank of England and ECB to start rate cuts around June, we will keep an eye on the pace of disinflation for any surprises.”
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White papersIlliquidity premia in private debt: Q4 2023
In our latest real assets deep dive, our research team crunches the data to see how evolving macro conditions are reflected in private debt returns.
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White papersSuper Tuesday points to a super-charged battle
“A Trump-Biden rematch looks likely in November. As we move closer to the elections, market uncertainty will rise given the candidates’ divergent approach to foreign policy and geopolitics.”
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White papers2024 Private Markets Outlook: Compelling opportunities amid a liquidity crunch
After a challenging 2023, we think that institutions who can be a provider of liquidity to others or have the flexibility to deploy additional capital will be able to take advantage of some unique and compelling risk-return opportunities in 2024.
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White papersEnter the dragon: Why China is competitively positioned
There are several reasons to remain constructive on China, in our view. We believe that pessimism about China’s fortunes and the wider economic outlook, resulting in the current idiosyncratic sell-off, presents opportunities for active investors to find great companies at very attractive valuations.
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White papersIndia in 2024: a trio of new positive catalysts
2024 will undoubtedly be a year of weaker global growth, largely led by the US and China. Yet we believe the combination of 1) a US soft landing, 2) slowing global inflation and 3) global monetary easing will mean riskier assets perform better. We believe strong returns are possible for Asian equities, especially when GDP growth projections are much higher for Asia ex Japan than for developed market peers.
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White papersIs US job creation as strong as it looks?
The latest US inflation report showed signs of inflation falling at a slower pace than expected. Inflation data have disappointed twice in a row and are seemingly consistent with firm US employment and wage growth. In this weekly edition of Simply put, we consider what constitutes a strong employment report and how expectations are coloured by what many market participants consider to be normal.
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White papersA Second Trump Presidency? Potential Economic Effects
President Trump could win the 2024 presidential election. When the incumbent presidential party presides over an improvement in the unemployment rate, it is likely to be returned to power. With unemployment at historic lows, unemployment is likely to get worse, creating headwinds for a Biden re-election.
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White papers2024’s elections around the world: The who’s who and the so what…
Voters from more than 60 countries will head to the polls this year, representing almost half the world’s population. This makes 2024 perhaps the ultimate election year by historical standards. But the act of merely holding elections does not guarantee a free and fair process e.g., Russia’s March elections, nor does it imply consequential change.
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White papersOpportunities in preferred and capital securities remain attractive
Main takeaways: the Federal Reserve (Fed) should be done raising rates; the U.S. Treasury market term premium should persist; discounted fixed-to-refixed hybrids foster an advantage of indifference to the direction of longer-term treasury rates; and relative values are attractive.
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White papersQuarterly fixed income perspectives 1Q 2024: A turning point for policy
Themes, outlook, and investment implications across global fixed income markets
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White papersConsider This: Indian elections 2024
India stands on the precipice of a significant election, with incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking a third term. Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist at Franklin Templeton Institute, provides an analysis of factors that could bode well for Modi’s campaign as well as implications of potential demographic shifts in one of the world’s largest democracies.
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White papersPrivate assets for the masses: An interview with PEI on the democratization of private equity
The democratization of private equity continues to be a hot-button issue. What were the biggest developments over the last 12 months?
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White papersConsider This: Canals are becoming chokepoints
The importance of major canals to global trade cannot be underestimated. Franklin Templeton Institute’s Kim Catechis highlights some of the challenges they face, including militant attacks and climate change.
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White papersETF investing – How AI and 3D printing are shaping the future of healthcare
Genomic engineering is the manipulation of an organism’s genes by introducing, eliminating or rearranging specific genes using the methods of modern molecular biology. The technology will enable the analysis of patients’ DNA, and the diagnosis and treatment of diseases. And what’s good for patients can also be interesting for investors.
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White papersSun setting on the tightening cycle
The Fed has removed its tightening bias, opening the door to rate cuts.
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White papersEOS 2023 Annual Review
EOS publishes 2023 Annual Review, with full engagement and voting highlights.
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White papersThe Importance of Monitoring Credit Spreads In Positioning Equity Portfolios
On February 5, 2024, the yield spread between the Baa corporate bond and the 10-year Treasury bond sat at 157 bps—just 9 bps wider than the narrowest level seen since 2000.
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White papersConsider This: Demographics and long-term growth
Conventional wisdom points to young demographics being a driver of economic growth. The reality is more complicated.
