- Nicolás Maduro and his wife were captured in a targeted US military operation and now face narco-terrorism charges in the US. Despite this, Maduro’s inner circle remains largely intact, with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez formally taking charge, signalling a managed transition rather than a complete power shift.
- The US plans to support a political transition in Venezuela and to start major oil investments; even in the best case, production increases will take time due to logistical and infrastructure challenges. In the short term, oil market impacts are likely to be limited, while greater US control over Venezuelan oil supports the US dollar, although geopolitical risks may weigh on investor confidence.
What happened in Venezuela?
Following a targeted US military operation, Nicolás Maduro and his wife were exfiltrated from the country and transferred to New York to face long-standing narco-terrorism charges. The capture itself reportedly did not involve extensive firefights, having been carefully planned to enable the safe insertion and extraction of US Delta Force and other units. Despite the dramatic headline, Maduro’s inner circle remains largely intact: the Defence Minister’s death was denied, and Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has stepped in as the new formal leader.
“The targeted US operation in Venezuela achieved its primary goal —the ousting of Maduro — without escalating into a wider military engagement.”
How is the political picture likely to evolve?
The situation remains largely uncertain. At this stage, the most probable near-term outcome is a managed transition, with so far little meaningful disruption to Venezuela’s domestic power structure. The Vice President has now formally assumed leadership, with the rest of the cabinet remaining largely intact.
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