All Commodities articles
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White papersMapping the fallout: Iran, oil, and global markets
Macro impact: The Iran conflict and risks to the Strait of Hormuz do not yet warrant a major change to our base case macro outlook. Growth adjustments remain limited, inflation has nudged higher, and central banks are broadly in a wait-and-see mode, with policy rates expected to remain largely stable.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - March 2026
Topic of the month - Mapping the fallout: Iran, oil, and global markets
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White papersHow the Iran war changes the economic outlook
War in Iran has injected new uncertainty into the global economy, reviving concerns that high oil prices could drive inflation up, strain consumer spending and weigh on economic growth.
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White papersOil and gas back in the spotlight
“In the Iran crisis, oil is the key transmission mechanism through which tensions spill over into the global economy: a total disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is the decisive trigger that can turn an energy shock into a broader macroeconomic shock.”
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White papers3 views on the US-Iran conflict
As war in the Middle East escalates, investors are confronted with the reality of a world that is becoming more dangerous. With markets reacting minute by minute to the news, it is helpful to take a step back and consider events in a broader context. With that in mind, three Capital Group investment professionals offer their assessments of the developing US-Iran conflict.
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White papersGeopolitical Risk and Asset Pricing Across Market Regimes
This paper examines how geopolitical risk (GPR) is transmitted across global financial markets by analyzing its effects on equities, sovereign bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities. Moving beyond single-regime and single-dimension approaches, the study adopts a two-regime Markov-switching framework to capture the state-dependent pricing of geopolitical shocks under low- and high-volatility market conditions.
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White papersU.S. & Israel vs. Iran: A sharpening geopolitical fault line
Escalating tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran are intensifying geopolitical risks in the Middle East, raising concerns over regional stability and potential disruptions to global energy markets.
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White papersImplications of US-Israel strikes on Iran
What is the nature of the attack on Iran and how could the situation evolve?
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White papersRisks to Oil from Iran: The Price of Uncertainty Flows Through Hormuz
A joint U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran’s leadership and energy infrastructure has put the world’s most critical oil chokepoint at risk — and the price consequences could be nonlinear.
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White papersEurope Aiming for Strategic Autonomy
“Europe’s strategic autonomy is about securing long-term economic resilience, diversifying the region’s external dependencies and enhancing competitiveness. This will open-up long-term investment opportunities across sectors.”
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - February 2026
Gold, silver, copper, oil: forces shaping the market - January’s end brought a bout of extreme volatility across commodity markets. Several commodities appear to have been hit by a correction after short-term euphoria, likely prompting the unwinding of speculative positions at month-end in silver, platinum, tin, US natural gas (NG) and the euro.
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White papersWhat could a Warsh-led Fed mean for markets?
On 30 January 2026, Donald Trump tapped Kevin Warsh — a former Fed governor between 2006 and 2011, and prominent policy hawk in a few past episodes — to take over from Jerome Powell as the US Federal Reserve Chair when Powell’s term ends in May.
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White papersGold, silver, copper, oil: forces shaping the market
January’s end brought a bout of extreme volatility across commodity markets. Several commodities appear to have been hit by a correction after short-term euphoria, likely prompting the unwinding of speculative positions at month-end in silver, platinum, tin, US natural gas (NG) and the euro.
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WebinarWorld in chaos after Davos? Impact on Markets
During this webinar, our experts Philippe d’Orgeval, Deputy Group Chief Investment Officer, and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute & Chief Strategist, moderated by Danae Quek, Senior PR Manager, explored how the latest surge in geopolitical tensions, renewed tariff threats, and mounting concerns over public finances are shaping market behaviour and influencing investor positioning.
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White papersDancing Through the Lightning Strikes? The Ongoing Case for Gold
The extraordinary return from gold in recent months, followed by an abrupt spike in volatility, ensures that questions about gold allocations come up in every single client meeting. But investors worry whether, after such a rally, there is still a case to own gold. We maintain our recommendation for a strategic allocation as part of an allocation to non-fiat, zero-duration assets.
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White papers
Global Investment Views - February 2026
The year began eventfully, with the US using its military strength and economic leverage to achieve President Trump’s foreign policy goals. The Fed receiving subpoenas and military action in Venezuela did not move oil prices and risk assets. But his threats to the sovereignty of a NATO ally sparked temporary volatility, with markets eventually recovering from that scare and US lagging the other regions. Fiscal profligacy and inflation concerns in Japan pushed bond yields up.
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White papersImplications of the US move on Venezuela
Following a targeted US military operation, Nicolás Maduro and his wife were exfiltrated from the country and transferred to New York to face long-standing narco-terrorism charges. The capture itself reportedly did not involve extensive firefights, having been carefully planned to enable the safe insertion and extraction of US Delta Force and other units.
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White papersAssessing Venezuela Oil Supply Risks
The dramatic U.S. intervention in Venezuela has raised expectations of a rapid supply boost, but we anticipate a slower, more complex recovery in exports given operational constraints, legal frictions, and years of underinvestment in the sector.
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VideoGemcast Episode 7: The emerging critical mineral challenge
In episode 7 of Gemcast, Viloshan Govender, Portfolio Manager at Gemcorp Capital, discusses the huge growth in demand for critical minerals, the key drivers behind this and the crucial role the emerging world has to play in meeting this. Drawing on his career journey he sheds light on the challenges investors face and how Gemcorp Capital is using its expertise to unleash this opportunity.
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White papersThe ‘Disruptive Ds’ Powering Commodities Markets
Commodities exposure could help adapt diversified portfolios for a changing world—eight trends explain why.
